Week 13 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Matt Youmans
Here are my Week 13 college football best bets:
Hawaii at UNLV (-3)
Dan Mullen is riding a lucky roll during his first year in Las Vegas. Mullen is a good football coach, something he proved for several years in the SEC, and the fact he has been highly successful at UNLV is no surprise. But he has been lucky.
The Rebels’ 8-2 record includes five wins in one-score games, the most recent a 29-26 double-overtime victory over Utah State in which the Aggies’ kicker choked with the game on the line. UNLV is in a five-way tie for second place in the Mountain West at 4-2, and Hawaii (7-3) is a part of that tie going into the teams’ meeting under the Friday night lights at Allegiant Stadium.
Mullen should not apologize for catching some breaks this season, but the Rebels’ sorry defense seems to indicate their luck is unsustainable. UNLV has allowed 31 points per game, which ranks 114th in the nation, and its defense ranks 100th or worse in most key categories. And here comes a Hawaii offense on a hot roll of its own.
Freshman quarterback Micah Alejado, a product of Bishop Gorman High in Las Vegas, is beginning to master coach Timmy Chang’s run-and-shoot offense. The Warriors have scored 39 points per game while winning four of their past five, with Alejado averaging 358.8 passing yards. Pofele Ashlock and Jackson Harris are big-play receivers with speed to burn. Alejado’s three first-half touchdown passes to Harris triggered Hawaii’s 38-6 victory over San Diego State two weeks ago, when the Aztecs showed up with the nation’s No. 2 scoring defense.
The Rebels have won one shootout (51-48 over Air Force) and lost one (40-35 to New Mexico) on their home field since the beginning of October. Indoors on a fast track, all signs point to this being another entertaining, high-scoring game. Not many signs point to the UNLV defense being better than Alejado.
Best Bets: Hawaii +3 and Over 64
Michigan (-14) at Maryland
With the Ohio State game on deck, this should be another good time to fade the Wolverines in a lookahead spot. (On a related note, this also could be the right time to fade the Buckeyes, if you have the guts to take 32.5 points with Rutgers on the road). Freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, who threw two interceptions in a 24-22 win at Northwestern a week ago, has only seven touchdown passes in 10 games. Underwood usually can lean on Michigan’s star running backs, but Justice Haynes (foot surgery) is out and Jordan Marshall (shoulder) is doubtful. It’s not easy to take the Terrapins, who have dropped six straight. Three of the losses were by four points or fewer, so the team has not quit, and the announcement that coach Mike Locksley will return should energize his players. Maryland’s freshman quarterback, Malik Washington, has been playing better than Underwood.
Best Bet: Maryland +14
Tennessee (-4) at Florida
For the first time in more than a month, the Gators return to “The Swamp,” where the Volunteers have not won since 2003. While a seven-win Tennessee team has more to play for, Florida (3-7) will show up to fight in this night game in Gainesville. Urban Meyer, who coached the Gators to two national titles, will be honored. Meyer is doing his best to motivate the team, saying, “The first thing I think about is Tennessee – we’ve got to beat Tennessee.” The Florida players are inspired to win for popular interim coach Billy Gonzales, who’s 0-3 since taking over for the fired Billy Napier. Gonzales said star defensive lineman Caleb Banks is set to return from injury. The Gators took a 24-20 lead into the fourth quarter at Mississippi a week ago, so that was a positive sign that Gonzales can rally his team for this rivalry game. Florida will need big outputs from quarterback DJ Lagway and running back Jadan Baugh, who both stepped up to spark a home victory over Texas in early October.
Best Bet: Florida +4
Utah State at Fresno State (-3)
A Saturday nightcap in Fresno sets up well for the road ‘dog. The Aggies (5-5) are chasing bowl eligibility in coach Bronco Mendenhall’s first season, so they need to get this win because their finale will be a tougher test against Boise State. Senior quarterback Bryson Barnes passed for 256 yards, ran 22 times for 124 yards and totaled two touchdowns in the painful double-overtime defeat at UNLV. Fresno State has the superior defense, but Barnes has a big advantage in a duel with Bulldogs quarterback Carson Conklin, who passed for 95 and 35 yards in his past two starts.
Best Bet: Utah State +3
Last week: 4-1 against the spread
Season: 36-26-5
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