Week 14 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Matt Youmans
Here are my Week 14 college football best bets:
Ohio State (-10) at Michigan
One year after an embarrassing loss to Michigan put Ryan Day’s job on the line, the Ohio State football coach gets his shot at revenge. Day achieved redemption when the Buckeyes bounced back to make a national championship run last season, but he’s still under intense pressure to finally whip the Wolverines.
Day has not defeated Michigan since 2019 — the rivals did not meet at the end of the shortened 2020 season — yet he has had lots of success along the way. Since the 2021 season, Ohio State owns a record of 58-8, including the 0-4 black eye against the Wolverines, who won a 13-10 stunner as 20-point underdogs in Columbus last year.
On a cold and snowy Saturday in Ann Arbor, the top-ranked Buckeyes (11-0) will likely use their dominant defense to stop their rivalry losing skid and advance to the Big Ten title game. While each team starts a freshman quarterback, Ohio State’s Julian Sayin is obviously far more polished as a passer and he’s got the support of the superior defense.
The Buckeyes will throw the nation’s No. 1 scoring defense (7.6 ppg) at Michigan freshman Bryce Underwood, who has only nine touchdown passes in 11 games. The Wolverines will be without star running back Justice Haynes (foot surgery), though leading rusher Jordan Marshall is set to return from a shoulder injury. Ohio State defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, who has done outstanding work to silence his own critics, fields a unit that has not allowed more than 16 points in any game this season.
Sayin has completed 79.4% of his passes with 27 touchdowns and four interceptions, yet he has thrown few meaningful passes in the fourth quarter for a team that has rolled to one blowout after another since sweating out a 14-7 decision against Texas on Aug. 30. The Buckeyes’ top wide receivers have been battling injuries lately, though Jeremiah Smith is expected to play while Carnell Tate’s status is questionable.
Circa Sports lists Ohio State as a 10-point favorite and some other books are holding the line at 9.5. I don’t want to lay the points and don’t have enough faith in the underdog, so I’ll play the total. Expect conservative play calling from both offenses in difficult weather conditions. My prediction is for the Buckeyes to prevail, 23-16.
Best Bet: Ohio State-Michigan Under 44
Texas A&M (-2.5) at Texas
The Aggies survived a few scares on their way to 11-0 and will get another serious test Friday night in Austin. If A&M escapes, it will be due to dual-threat quarterback Marcel Reed’s ability to shred the Texas defense. While quarterback Arch Manning has shown steady improvement, the Longhorns have declined on the defensive side, allowing an average of 35.3 points in the past four games. All three of Texas’ losses came on the road (at Ohio State, Florida and Georgia). Longhorns coach Steve Sarkisian is 1-8 straight up and 2-7 ATS as an underdog, but look for his team’s best effort in the home ‘dog role. Most books have this game lined at 2.5, but Circa is offering 3, so take the field goal.
Best Bet: Texas +3
Oregon (-6.5) at Washington
It’s tough to resist a good home ‘dog in a rivalry game, so the Huskies fit the profile in this battle in Seattle. The Ducks are beat up with injuries after tough games against USC and Iowa in recent weeks. Washington’s offense is again firing at a high level, averaging 48.5 points in the past two games behind dynamic quarterback Demond Williams Jr. Huskies coach Jedd Fisch has lost only once at home in two seasons and that was to Ohio State in September. Oregon should be on upset alert. The line is either 6.5 or 7, with DraftKings offering the best number on the underdog.
Best Bet: Washington +7
Alabama (-6) at Auburn
Sticking with the theme of home underdogs in rivalry games, the Tigers (5-6) need the win to get bowl eligible and will show up for a fight. Auburn’s defense is legit, allowing an average of 20.8 points in losses to Georgia, Texas A&M, Missouri and Oklahoma. The Tigers are also showing more of an offensive surge by using three different quarterbacks — Ashton Daniels, Deuce Knight and Jackson Arnold. Alabama’s inability to run the ball effectively puts the burden on quarterback Ty Simpson to make plays under pressure.
Best Bet: Auburn +6
Wyoming at Hawaii (-7.5)
There is no explanation for the Warriors’ no-show performance in a 38-10 loss at UNLV last week. Prior to that lackadaisical effort, Hawaii had averaged 39 points during a five-game stretch with freshman quarterback Micah Alejado averaging 358.8 passing yards. The Warriors are a different animal in Honolulu, so coach Timmy Chang should get his offense to rebound. The Cowboys have dropped three in a row while scoring a total of only 17 points. Hawaii blew out San Diego State 38-6 and should roll over a weak Wyoming team.
Best Bet: Hawaii -7.5
Last week: 1-4 against the spread
Season: 37-30-5
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