Week 4 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Matt Youmans
A college football Saturday often feels like a day of March Madness. This will be one of those days, kicking off early in Knoxville, Tennessee and wrapping up late in Seattle. Here are my college football best bets for Week 4:
Texas (-5) at Tennessee
It’s tough to know if this Tennessee team is the real deal, and that’s because the 14th-ranked Volunteers have faced a soft schedule (Furman, Georgia Tech and Kennesaw State) so far. The fourth Saturday in September features six matchups between ranked teams and this is one. The Longhorns, led by quarterback Arch Manning, roll into Rocky Top with the No. 1 ranking and should be on upset alert.
Manning was outstanding in the fourth quarter against Ohio State two weeks ago, but he has looked otherwise ordinary. In a flat spot versus UTSA a week ago, Manning completed 16 of 32 passes for 161 yards. Hopefully, a big stage and step up in class are not too much for Tennessee freshman Faizon Brandon, who has totaled 689 yards (552 passing, 137 rushing) and nine touchdowns without an interception. He is supported by star running backs DeSean Bishop and Duane Morris.
Manning and the Longhorns went 0-5 ATS on the road last season and they likely will be sweating this out in a hostile atmosphere to open SEC play.
Best Bet: Tennessee +5
Iowa at Michigan (-5.5)
The Hawkeyes lead the nation in scoring defense (4.3 ppg) — that’s no surprise considering the track record of coach Kirk Ferentz and defensive coordinator Phil Parker — after facing two cupcakes (Northern Illinois and Northern Iowa) and Iowa State. Iowa also appears to be decent offensively behind quarterback Hank Brown and running back Kamari Moulton. The Iowa defense should be able to shut down Wolverines quarterback Bryce Underwood and make this game low scoring and ugly.
Best Bets: Iowa +5.5 and Under 38.5 (half-unit each)
Mississippi at Florida (-3.5)
Betting against the best quarterback in college football is risky business, and the Rebels’ Trinidad Chambliss is simply the best right now. He has completed 70% of his passes with seven touchdowns and staged phenomenal performances in victories over LSU and Louisville. However, stud running back Kewan Lacy is banged up and, most importantly, this is the definition of an emotional hangover spot for Ole Miss following its Super Bowl win against Lane Kiffin and the Tigers.
This is the dawn of an exciting new era in Gainesville. The Gators kicked “Sun Belt” Billy Napier out of town and made a smart coaching hire in Jon Sumrall. Florida has plenty of offensive firepower with running back Jadan Baugh (458 yards, eight touchdowns), quarterback Aaron Philo (73.4% completions) and receivers Dallas Wilson and Vernell Brown. Even if Chambliss steals the show and avoids the upset in “The Swamp,” this game could look similar to the Gators’ 44-39 win at Auburn a week ago. I bet Florida -3 (-120) early in the week but would play it a little differently now with the line moving to 3.5.
Best Bets: Florida -165 and Over 58.5 (half-unit each)
Boise State (-7) at Western Michigan
The Broncos will win this game and that’s a guarantee. Boise State has handled tougher competition well, outplaying Oregon for much of the game in a season-opening loss before holding off Memphis and South Dakota. Boise’s veteran quarterback, Maddux Madsen, can lean on dynamic running backs Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines to help grind this out on the road. Western Michigan, which counters with a strong defense (16 ppg) and dual-threat quarterback Broc Lowry, looks like a live dog in a showdown with CFP implications.
Best Bet: Western Michigan +7
Notre Dame (-27.5) at Purdue
For the third time in four weeks, the Fighting Irish face a Big Ten opponent, and their offense was sluggish in victories over Michigan State and Wisconsin. Notre Dame needs a get-right game for its offense and the Purdue defense is the perfect patsy in this spot. The Boilermakers surrendered 645 total yards, including a preposterous 369 yards on the ground, in a 52-38 shootout loss at UCLA last week. The Bruins had receivers running open all over the field and faced little resistance when they ran the ball.
Purdue coach Barry Odom can’t fix those defensive problems in a week, but he can count on quarterback Ryan Browne to take some shots. Browne has passed for 1,024 yards and seven touchdowns with 73.3% completions in three games. Browne won’t light up a Notre Dame defense allowing 7.7 ppg, but he can put enough points on the board to help this fly over the total. CJ Carr and the Irish should top 50 points after beating the Boilermakers 56-30 and 66-7 the past two years.
Best Bet: Notre Dame-Purdue Over 58
Oregon (-3) at USC
Two weeks ago, the Ducks were outgained 554-281 in a loss at Oklahoma State, so do they deserve to be favored in Los Angeles against a USC team that always plays much better at home for coach Lincoln Riley? Oregon will have to prove worthy of the hype, and there should be some doubts about quarterback Dante Moore. The Trojans were sleepwalking on the road against a rotten Rutgers team last week, and their defense remains a question mark, but quarterback Jayden Maiava is surrounded by playmakers in Riley’s offense and this could be a 38-35 type of shootout.
Best Bets: USC +3 and Over 61.5
Minnesota at Washington (-10)
The latest kickoff on the card (8 p.m. Pacific) warrants a play, but I’m going against the sharp money on Washington. While the Huskies feature a dynamic quarterback in Demond Williams, their talent level is down and they are slipping down the Big Ten ladder. Washington barely survived a 16-14 wrestling match against winless Utah State two weeks ago. Gophers coach P.J. Fleck needs quarterback Drake Lindsey to step up if star running back Darius Taylor, who’s questionable with an injury, can’t go. Fleck is typically a feisty underdog — at least when he’s not facing Mississippi State superstar Kamario Taylor.
Best Bet: Minnesota +10
Last week: 4-0-2 against the spread
Season: 12-3-4
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