Week 4 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Wes Reynolds:
Here are my Week 4 college football best bets:
Indiana -20 vs. Northwestern
The defending National Champion Hoosiers have started out 2026 with a 3-0 record, albeit against soft competition. They are also 0-3 ATS, as Indiana failed to cover against North Texas, Howard, and Western Kentucky. This week, they begin their defense of the Big Ten Championship as Northwestern comes to Bloomington on Friday night.
Northwestern has been impressive in its first two victories over FCS No. 2 powerhouse South Dakota State and Colorado. Aidan Chiles has thrown for 4 TDs (67.4% completions) and has another 3 TDs on the ground. He and new OC Chip Kelly seem to have formed an effective partnership. Nevertheless, this is a big step in class for both teams.
The market opened Indiana -22.5, and it has been steady Northwestern money from sharp bettors as this reached -20 at Circa Sports.
The national media has crushed Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers for the soft non-conference schedule, and he has addressed it, calling it “the exhibition season”. Well, now it is the real season, and Cignetti clearly has some spice coming into this week.
It is not like Indiana has been bad through its first three games, considering they have won by a combined score of 145 to 16. They also get a boost this week with DL Stephen Daley and Kellan Wyatt again being ruled eligible after receiving a court injunction in their favor on Thursday.
The Hoosiers also have to be happy to play in a much cooler climate on Friday night, considering all three of their games have been hot and humid weather in the mid-90s.
While Northwestern is certainly a tough bunch, this looks like the week that Indiana makes a statement that they are still here and more than a viable contender to repeat.
Florida -156 ML vs. Ole Miss
Ole Miss got its revenge on Lane Kiffin last week in a game they had circled since their former coach dumped them to go to LSU. The Rebels left it all on the field Saturday night. Now they, along with current Heisman favorite QB Trinidad Chambliss, take to the road to face a Florida team that is off to its own undefeated start, which included a 44-39 victory at Auburn last week that was far more convincing than the final score, as the Gators had a 495-373 yard edge and were more balanced with 243 on the ground and 162 coming from RB Jadan Baugh, who has 458 yards and 8 TDs in just three games.
New Gators head coach Jon Sumrall also gets his third look at Ole Miss in a calendar year as he faced the Rebels twice last season as head coach of Tulane. Granted, both of those games were blowout losses, including in the first round of the College Football Playoff, but unlike those other two matchups, he has equal talent this time around. Sumrall is also 15-4-1 ATS as a single-digit favorite for his career. Aside from Sumrall, Florida has clearly upgraded at both coordinator positions with Buster Faulkner (OC from Georgia Tech) and Brad White (DC from Kentucky).
The spot, plus the preparation edge on Sumrall’s side, should be too much for Ole Miss to overcome as the Gators show that they are an SEC team that is being slept on.
UConn +3.5 at Miami (OH)
For many years, Jason Candle and Chuck Martin were the coaching deans of the MAC. Now Martin is still at Miami, and Candle left Toledo after 11 seasons and two MAC titles to take the job at UConn.
Miami had a 28-7 lead in the “Victory Bell” rivalry game vs. Cincinnati last week but lost 35-31 as the Bearcats scored with 1:29 left.
Tricky spot for Miami this week facing independent UConn before starting MAC play next week.
Candle and Martin have met four times, with Candle winning three of the four meetings.
Georgia Southern +18 vs. Houston
Houston scored a late touchdown in the final minute at Texas Tech last week but failed on the two-point conversion with 0:47 left to lose by two in Lubbock. The Cougars remained in the top 25 and now travel to face Georgia Southern, where Willie Fritz was its first coach in the FBS era (2014-2015; 17-7 record).
In fact, this is the first time in school history that Georgia Southern is hosting a Power 4 opponent in Statesboro.
Georgia Southern returned home with some “Statesboro Blues” last week. The original songwriter Blind Willie McTell (song later made famous by The Allman Brothers Band) wrote, “I woke up this morning / Had them Statesboro blues / I looked over in the corner: grandma and grandpa had ’em too.” Those lyrics certainly apply to the Eagles, as they lost three double-digit leads at Jacksonville State, who they outplayed last week only to allow a late fourth-quarter punt return for a TD to lose 31-27 after they led 17-0, 24-10, and 27-17.
The Eagles also hung in with Clemson the week prior.
Houston, with already one loss in Big XII play, has UCF on deck next week, and Fritz may not want to run it up on the school he once brought into FBS.
Oklahoma State/West Virginia Over 60.5
After a disappointingly slow start in an opening loss at Tulsa, Oklahoma State has put up 98 points and over 1200 yards in its last two games.
West Virginia is currently ranked 114th in pass defense. They gave up 373 through the air to Coastal Carolina, who was held to under 250 passing yards vs. Liberty and Delaware. That’s bad news against Drew Menstemaker.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma State will have its hands full defensively against WVU QB Michael Hawkins, who is No. 2 in the country in QBR (68%, 5-0 ratio, 322 rushing yards, 6 TDs).
Both of these teams are also inside the top quarter of FBS teams for tempo nationally.
Utah State -140 ML vs. Troy
The Aggies are 0-3 to start the season after losing its opener to FCS Idaho State, at Washington (by 2 where they had a Hail Mary shot at the end), and were shut out at Utah last week.
Now Bronco Mendenhall’s club hosts Troy, who put in an all-out effort last week at No. 20 Missouri in a 27-17 defeat where they outgained the Tigers by a 323-230 margin only to have a missed field goal and two costly turnovers prevent a potential upset.
The desperate team gets it done against a Troy team traveling for the second straight week and having to play at altitude before conference play.
Missouri State +35 at SMU
SMU outgained Louisville in the ACC showdown of ranked teams last weekend but lost 41-31 predominantly due to three turnovers, two in the fourth quarter, from QB Kevin Jennings.
Now SMU returns to Dallas to host Missouri State before getting back to conference play.
There is great familiarity between these two coaches as SMU’s Rhett Lashlee and Missouri State’s Casey Woods go all the way back to 2009, when they roomed together while on Gus Malzahn’s staff at Auburn. They won a national title on that staff in 2010. Woods also served as Lashlee’s offensive coordinator for the last four seasons at SMU. It is difficult to see Lashlee running it up on his old roommate and best friend Woods, who is in his first season at his first head coaching job.
BEST OF THE REST
South Alabama +20.5 at Kentucky
Notre Dame/Purdue Over 57.5
Wisconsin +10 at Penn State
For more college football Week 4 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 4 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
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