Week 6 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Matt Youmans
In what seems like the blink of an eye, Curt Cignetti has gone from a relative unknown to a coach with a national championship and a State Farm commercial. He took over what was the Big Ten’s worst football program and has piled up a 32-2 record in his third season at Indiana. Now, he’s got a target on his forehead everywhere he goes, and this weekend he’s going to Lincoln, Nebraska.
Matt Rhule was known for working quick turnarounds with weak programs, but he’s no Cignetti. Rhule is 24-19 in his fourth year at Nebraska, where his top accomplishment is a Pinstripe Bowl win. Against AP Top 25 opponents, Rhule is 0-9 with the Cornhuskers and 2-25 in his career. Will this showdown against the No. 7 Hoosiers be the rule (another big-game flop) or something exceptional?
Indiana is a 7.5-point favorite at Nebraska and the line looks right. It’s difficult to bet against Cignetti, but it’s tough to trust the Cornhuskers, who have faced the 126th-ranked schedule to this point. The Hoosiers host Ohio State in a monster matchup next week, so some would call this a lookahead spot. I’ll pass on this home underdog and look to some other college football best bets for Week 6:
North Carolina at Pittsburgh (-3.5)
Mason Heintschel was becoming one of the top quarterbacks in the country with 14 touchdown passes during Pitt’s 5-0 start. Heintschel went down with a season-ending knee injury last week, forcing Holden Geriner into the spotlight. In his prime, Bill Belichick would scheme a defense that would overwhelm Geriner, and Belichick would own an inferior coach such as the Panthers’ Pat Narduzzi. Belichick is obviously way past his prime, but he’s probably worth a shot here. Pitt has faced a soft schedule and was outgained 499-295 in a 35-33 win at Virginia Tech.
Best Bet: North Carolina +3.5
UCLA at Oregon (-11.5)
A former James Madison coach is writing a Cinderella story near Hollywood. Bob Chesney might not be the next Cignetti, but the comparison fits so far. UCLA (4-0) is climbing the ladder in the Big Ten and could be making a run at the playoffs. This will be by far the toughest test for Chesney’s team. (In Cignetti’s first season at Indiana, he came up short in his toughest road tests against Ohio State and Notre Dame.) The Bruins are scoring 44.8 ppg, allowing 18.8 ppg and capitalizing on a plus-8 turnover margin. UCLA needs to ride running back Wayne Knight, who has nine touchdowns while averaging 9.1 yards per carry, because the Ducks’ defensive front has not been as strong as projected. Patrick Mahomes lookalike Dylan Raiola will start in place of injured quarterback Dante Moore, but that’s not necessarily a negative for Oregon due to Raiola’s experience and his outstanding performance in relief against USC. I’ve touted Chesney and the Bruins since the summer and will stick with it.
Best Bet: UCLA +11.5
USC at Penn State (-1.5)
Penn State already regrets hiring Matt Campbell instead of Bob Chesney. Campbell brought a bunch of players from Iowa State, including gritty quarterback Rocco Becht, who has 10 touchdown passes and some running ability. The problem for the Nittany Lions has been a defense that surrendered 506 yards (413 on the ground) and 34 points in a blowout loss at Northwestern. But this is a night game in Happy Valley and the Lions should rise to the occasion. USC coach Lincoln Riley is packing a suitcase full of negative road trends. The Trojans were forced to rally from a 21-10 third-quarter deficit in an embarrassing 25-21 win against a weak Washington team last week in Los Angeles.
Best Bet: Penn State -1.5
Georgia at Alabama (-2)
A major hurricane bringing heavy rain and high winds to the Gulf Coast could impact this game in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, so check with Jim Cantore of The Weather Channel for updates. As for the quarterback matchup, the lean goes to Georgia senior Gunner Stockton over Crimson Tide phenom Keelon Russell. Stockton (75.5% completions, 13 touchdowns and one interception) has a track record of clutch play in big games. Georgia coach Kirby Smart is as sharp as it gets with defensive schemes, and he needs to do something special against Russell, who’s taking the SEC by storm with 15 total touchdowns in five games. I’m hesitant to take such a short number with the Bulldogs, so this is a rare teaser play.
Best Bet: Georgia +8 with Texas -1 on a six-point teaser.
Oklahoma vs. Texas (-7)
While critics rip Sooners quarterback John Mateer, who deserves the rips, it should be mentioned that his numbers are similar to those posted by Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning, who’s still touted by many as a top NFL prospect. Manning has all the weapons he could want, yet he has completed 63.5% of his passes with seven touchdowns and three interceptions in four games. Texas won the past two Red River meetings in Dallas by scores of 23-6 and 34-3, so I trust the No. 1 Longhorns to win ugly. Circa Sports is offering the best numbers on Texas (-7, -120; the consensus market line is 7.5) and Georgia for this play.
Best Bet: Texas -1 with Georgia +8 on a six-point teaser.
Boise State (-6.5) at Fresno State
Fresno’s running attack has been surprisingly mediocre while quarterback Jayden Mandal struggles. Boise has not struggled at all since a season-opening loss at Oregon, with quarterback Maddux Madsen (11 touchdown passes, no interceptions) and running back Dylan Riley (685 yards and 6.3 per carry) leading the way. Madsen was out with an injury last season when the Bulldogs blew out Boise 30-7 as 17-point road underdogs. The Broncos should get revenge and hopefully cover in the process.
My biggest win-total plays this season were Fresno State (Over 6.5) and Michigan (Under 8.5) and both are looking good. However, the Bulldogs have not been impressive on their way to a 4-1 record and this is a significant step up in class after facing Sacramento State, San Jose State, Rice and Washington State.
Best Bet: Boise State -6.5
Last week: 3-3 against the spread
Season: 20-8-5
For more college football Week 6 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 6 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
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