Week 6 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Wes Reynolds:
Here are my Week 6 college football best bets:
Indiana/Nebraska Under 48.5
This is eerily reminiscent of Indiana’s game last year at Iowa. The Hoosiers were favored by around a TD, just like this week, and playing at unranked Iowa. Curt Cignetti and his guys had to grind out a 20-15 win the week before their biggest game of the season, at Oregon. It is the same situation this year with the Hoosiers getting Ohio State in Bloomington next week in the Big Ten Championship rematch.
Neither team has played a tough schedule (Indiana No. 103 SOS; Nebraska No. 11 SOS).
Indiana QB Josh Hoover has 15 TDs and 0 INTs so far and leads the No. 1 team in offensive EPA, but IU has heavily prioritized running the ball in its two conference games behind one of the nation’s better offensive lines. They are averaging 300 yards rushing in their Big Ten games.
Nebraska gave up 5.6 yards per carry to Maryland, who struggles to run the ball, last week, and that is not great news facing Turbo Richard, who leads FBS running backs with the most yards on explosive runs (422).
The Indiana secondary is the biggest concern for the defending national champions, and that is how Nebraska will have to attack since Indiana is one of the nation’s stingiest rush defenses.
There is some wind in the forecast, which should favor Indiana and a likely lower-scoring game.
North Carolina +4 at Pittsburgh
After winning at Virginia Tech last Friday night, Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi told ESPN in a post-game interview that voters would learn that the Panthers had a great team if “they wake their asses up.” Three days later, Narduzzi took a shot at “the school down the road” (Penn State) for being ranked in the preseason. Well, now Narduzzi’s Panthers are ranked. This could be a “be careful what you wish for” situation because now Pitt is a target and will have more eyeballs on them.
What Pitt will not have is starting QB Mason Heintschel, who was lost for the season after suffering an ACL injury last weekend. Holden Geriner takes over as the starter. Geriner was a third-string QB at Auburn from 2022-24 and then was the third-string QB at Texas State last year. Perhaps he steps up in this opportunity, but it is a major drop-off from a starting QB who was top 15 in QBR and top 20 in passing yards.
While you never apologize for a victory, especially on the road, Pitt did get outgained by over 200 yards, had a +4 turnover margin, and still had to survive a missed 36-yard FG from John Love, one of the nation’s most reliable kickers. Pitt also got a fortunate win playing UCF in a bad weather game earlier this season.
North Carolina has played the much tougher schedule. The Tar Heels should have won at Clemson, and were respectable vs. No. 3 Notre Dame last week and only trailed by 7 after three quarters.
Texas A&M +3.5 at Missouri
Last week, we played Missouri against Florida, with the Gators off a huge win over Ole Miss and looking every bit the top 10 team and CFP contender. Mizzou was far from gator bait last week as they destroyed Florida 45-17 and put up 560 yards of total offense.
After two putrid performances in losing at home to Kentucky and being blown out at LSU, Texas A&M got right a bit against Arkansas in a 34-7 victory.
Now Mizzou is rated in the top 15 and all of a sudden, they are getting some playoff buzz. The Tigers are also going through a range of emotions as freshman offensive tackle Johnnie Jones received a heart transplant on Thursday after the Mizzou training staff discovered heart problems during routine freshman intake testing.
Missouri transfer QB Austin Simmons also has his return to Ole Miss next week to face his old teammates after being unseated as the starting QB by Trinidad Chambliss last season. Simmons has thrown for 1287 yards and 13 TDs with 0 INT and ranks top 10 nationally for QBR, but this is eerily similar to Kamario Taylor at Mississippi State, the only team to defeat Missouri this season, as his numbers were off the charts and then he had a big turnover day vs. Alabama last week.
Oklahoma +8 vs. Texas (Dallas)
Steve Sarkisian and Texas have dominated three of the four Red River meetings against Brent Venables and Oklahoma. The three Longhorns victories were 49-0, 34-3, and 23-6.
Texas is currently No. 1 with the best-ranked victory of the season over Ohio State. However, save for the blowout against Texas State in the opener, the Horns have not been all that impressive. They trailed 23-3 vs. the Buckeyes in the fourth quarter and needed every single thing to go right to escape with victory. Then, they struggled with a poor UTSA defense (an obvious letdown spot after Ohio State). Next, in the game at Tennessee, the defense sacked Vols QB Faizon Brandon 10 times, but still had to hang on the last possession for a 20-17 victory. Arch Manning and the Longhorns only put up 262 yards of total offense in that game and now face a Sooners defense only allowing 238 yards per game.
To be fair, Oklahoma’s offense has been awful and currently ranks fourth worst amongst Power 4 teams. The Sooners have not been able to run the ball (99 ypg), while QB John Mateer has been a huge disappointment thus far this season and has committed six turnovers (4 INT, 2 FUM) in the last three games. It will not be easy for Mateer and company to get right against a stout Texas defense that is only allowing 13.3 ppg and 271 ypg.
Both teams are off the bye week, but it comes at a better time for Oklahoma, who is 2-2 and essentially playing to salvage the season here.
While Oklahoma is 2-2, Texas is No. 1 . And yet, they have the same numbers for yards per play both offensively (5.2) and defensively (4.23).
Venables is going to send the house against Arch here, and Manning has been sacked 10 times (6 at Tennessee) in four games and has struggled against the blitz.
With a total of just 39, getting more than a touchdown is generous despite the lopsided nature of this rivalry in three of the last four years and discrepancies in the polls.
Georgia Tech +7 -115 vs. Duke
Duke has been a pleasant surprise at 4-0 both SU and ATS, including a win at Illinois. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech is off to a disappointing 1-3 start and 0-4 ATS. They have also played a common opponent in Stanford. Duke destroyed Stanford 35-7 while Georgia Tech lost at Stanford two weeks ago. That same Stanford team lost 57-3 at Wake Forest last weekend.
Both teams are off the bye week, but Georgia Tech clearly needed it more as they are essentially a new team with new coordinators on both sides of the ball.
This is one of the potential weather-impacted games from Hurricane Isaias. That type of game favors the better running QB, and that is Alberto Mendoza of Georgia Tech vs. a pocket passer like Duke’s Walker Eget.
Brent Key is also 17-7 ATS in his Georgia Tech career as an underdog.
Best of the Rest
Iowa State +10.5 at BYU
BYU won a hard-fought, low-scoring game at TCU in inclement weather, but it came at a cost: RB LJ Martin plus three defensive starters will miss this week’s game vs. Iowa State.
The Cougars face a much-anticipated showdown with Notre Dame in Provo next week.
This is a short week for the Cyclones and having to play at altitude, but this brand-new Iowa State team is starting to figure it out a little offensively, having put up 45 points and 577 yards vs. West Virginia last week.
TCU had the right game plan vs. BYU last week to slow the game down but lost the turnover battle and could not run the ball. Iowa State can run the ball behind Aiden Flora, who had 194 yards and two TDs last week vs. West Virginia.
Ball State +36.5 at Northwestern
Northwestern opened their new nearly $900 million Ryan Field in style last week with a dominating victory over Penn State. The atmosphere in Evanston this Saturday should be a bit more subdued with Ball State coming to town.
The Cardinals are dead last in FBS in yards per game margin (playing at Ohio State will do that to you), but Northwestern has their showdown with its former coach Pat Fitzgerald next week at Michigan State and there is certainly some heat between those two sides, and add in that Wildcats QB Aidan Chiles will be getting a crack at some of his old teammates. Remember that Chiles lost the starting job with the Spartans last year.
Maryland +33.5 at Ohio State
The Terps played a solid 27 minutes in the first half and held a 23-14 lead late before Malik Washington threw a pick-six, and the Terps allowed another score before halftime. They were only down 5 heading to the 4th, and then Nebraska outscored them 20-0 to get the 48-23 win and cover.
Ohio State won at Iowa with College Gameday in attendance and now has this game before the Big Ten Championship Game rematch at Indiana next week, which you know they have had circled since last December.
UNLV +3.5 vs. North Dakota State
While UNLV’s CFP hopes went away in a Week 1 loss to Memphis, the Rebels are still very much in the Mountain West mix. North Dakota State is atop the conference in its first year, and they are bringing a decent number of fans from Fargo. However, the Bison have played the No. 173 schedule ranking (which includes FCS teams). They have defeated Jacksonville State, Fordham, Air Force, Sacramento State, and Wyoming. UNLV has a different level of athlete and talent.
Air Force TT Under 27.5
Air Force went down from a 10.5-point favorite to a 7.5-point favorite when news broke that junior QB and two-year starter Liam Szarka is out for the year with a lower-leg injury. The Falcons just beat Navy last week and are the current front-runners to win the CIC (Commander-in-Chief’s) Trophy should they beat Army next month.
Now Air Force takes to the road to face 0-4 Northern Illinois, who is off a bye and hosting their first Mountain West Conference home game in DeKalb. NIU has also played a tougher schedule, traveling to Iowa and Arizona and facing ranked FCS Illinois State.
Purdue +3 -120 vs. Minnesota
After winning at Washington and defeating Michigan for the Little Brown Jug for the first time in 12 years, Minnesota goes to Purdue and lays less than a field goal to a Boilermakers group that just broke a 19-game Big Ten losing streak at Illinois last weekend.
Purdue has given up the third-most yards per game among the Power 4, but against a tough schedule that includes Notre Dame, UCLA, and Wake Forest. They’ve also shown some offensive potency and can likely play a bit looser here, having finally broken that losing streak. It’s a tough situation for the Golden Gophers.
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