Mississippi State Bulldogs:

The last few years have been strange for this program. The Bulldogs were doing well with Mike Leach at the helm, but the legendary offensive mind — and captivating human being — passed in 2022. Defensive coordinator Zach Arnett, who many were high on, ended up getting the opportunity to lead the program. That ultimately didn’t work out, so the Bulldogs moved on and brought in offensive guru Jeff Lebby. His high-powered offense will be welcomed after years of Leach running the show. 

The problem is that Lebby only has a handful of starters returning from last year, and that was a miserable team to begin with. It’s going to take some time for him to get the right talent in place, so a few seasons in the basement of the SEC should be expected. 

 

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Offense

Lebby has churned out elite offenses at UCF, Ole Miss and Oklahoma, so there’s no reason to believe he can’t do it in Starkville. The biggest concern heading into Year 1 will be the offensive line. Lebby will have five new starters up front, with most of them coming from the transfer portal. If that group can’t figure things out quickly, this offense won’t operate at a high level. However, if the offensive line can just be decent, Mississippi State will score a lot of points. 

Lebby did well to add Baylor transfer Blake Shapen as his quarterback. Shapen can make all the throws, including the downfield shots that will be staples in Lebby’s system. He’s also rather good with his legs, and he’ll be throwing the ball to a talented group of wide receivers. However, Mississippi State’s ground game will be a bit of a question mark, as it’s an unproven group of backs running behind an inexperienced offensive line. And the Bulldogs will be asking a lot of Shapen if they can’t get the running game going. 

Defense

The defensive side of the ball is where things could get really ugly. Coleman Hutzler, who has spent the last four seasons with Texas, Ole Miss and Alabama, will get a shot at running this thing. Hutzler has never called plays, but there’s something to be said about spending so much time around winning programs. He should have a good understanding of what it takes to win games. However, the talent isn’t going to be there in Year 1. 

This unit only returns five starters and lost most of its best players. Lebby did try to add some talent in the transfer portal, but he didn’t bring in any legitimate game-changers. So, Mississippi State could really struggle against some of the elite offenses in this conference. 

Outlook

This is a play that feels like it’ll end in a push, but I feel a little better about playing the Under than I do the Over. Mississippi State should win home games against Eastern Kentucky and UMass, but the Bulldogs don’t have any other clear wins. They’ll like their chances against Toledo, Arizona State, Florida and Arkansas, but I’d be stunned if they win three of those four. And I wouldn’t be shocked if they only win one. I think Mississippi State’s defense is going to be a disaster. 

Pick: Under 4 Wins

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