Navy Midshipmen:

In my write-up about AAC newcomer Army, I touched on some of the difficulties that Navy football has been having. The Middies won 11 games back in 2019. They’ve won 16 combined games in four seasons since and played 10 games during the COVID year. They have had a winning conference record once in the last seven seasons in the AAC.

However, second-year head coach Brian Newberry did lead the team to five wins last season, the most since that 2019 campaign. But, this is a new era of Navy football, as former Mercer head coach Drew Cronic brings in the Wing-T offense and the Middies try something different in hopes of sparking the program.

 

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Offense

Cronic says that the offense will be a mash-up of the Wing-T, triple-option, and spread option, so…yeah. We’ll see how that goes. We know that service academies are remarkably disciplined and the players will dive into the playbook in hopes of ending the four-year bowl drought. As we know, the service academies are at a disadvantage in present-day college football by not being able to utilize the transfer portal, so it all comes down to in-house performance and returning production.

Four QBs took snaps last season. Two are still on the roster. It appears that Blake Horvath holds the lead over Braxton Woodson. Horvath was the more effective runner and passer last season, but Woodson got more reps. The QB position is important in every offense, but so critical in this one, especially with the scheme change. Leading rusher Alex Tecza is back after ripping off six yards per carry last year.

Defense

Navy was +11 in turnover margin last year, which helped the defense to one of its best seasons in a while despite finishing 64th in yards per play allowed. Navy’s 24 takeaways were tied for 13th in the nation, leading to a 38th-ranked scoring defense. As with any service academy, it has to be pointed out that the style of offense limits exposure to the defense, but the defenses are undersized and can fail to generate a lot of negative plays by losing in the trenches.

The Middies had 29 sacks to go with 14 fumble recoveries, so they made a lot of plays, but I would expect turnover regression for this season. Navy only lost eight of 20 fumbles on offense and recovered 14 of 21 opponent fumbles. It isn’t a circular ball, so it bounces in weird ways, but Navy was on the right side of both ends.

Outlook

AAC defenses have been suffocating the triple-option for a while, so doing something new is exciting and potentially valuable. However, this feels like a transitional year under Cronic’s complicated scheme. I have Navy down for just below five wins and agree with the vig on Under 5.5, especially since I think some of the AAC foes on the schedule will improve.

Pick: Under 5.5 Wins

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