New Mexico Lobos:
Bronco Mendenhall is back in the saddle after two seasons out of football. His first job back is a massive challenge. New Mexico has won more than four games in a season just twice since 2007. The Lobos return just nine starters from last season, and one of their best players is punter Aaron Rodriguez. Mendenhall has had plenty of success in his career, but the job in Albuquerque is daunting.
Offense
The Lobos ranked 11th in EPA per rush last season, but that was mostly due to the presence of Jacory Croskey-Merritt. Croskey-Merritt transferred to Arizona, but the two other leading rushers – including quarterback Devon Dampier – are back. This unit probably won’t finish 11th in the country in rushing again, but it can be average on the ground this season.
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Quarterback is the biggest question for this unit. Dampier played in nine games last season for New Mexico; he started just one. On 70 dropbacks he averaged 8.2 yards per attempt and threw six touchdowns without an interception. Dampier is also a dual-threat who averaged 6.2 yards per rush as well. He should be the starter when the season begins.
All five starters are gone from the offensive line, and just two of the top six receivers return as well. However, Mendenhall offset some of the losses with a litany of transfers at both positions. Play in both groups could drop off this season.
Defense
Defense could actually be much better off this season than one would believe. Mendenhall has a long history with the 3-3-5 defense which was run here last season by Danny Gonzales. The six starters back on defense should transition to Mendenhall’s scheme smoothly.
Having said that, this group was not great in 2023. The Lobos were 127th in opponent EPA per play, 130th in EPA per dropback and 132nd in EPA on early downs. The returning personnel help make the transition smoother, but if the level of play remains the same this group could be just as poor as last season.
Mendenhall did go to the portal to improve the talent level. The secondary has two TCU transfers and another from Nebraska. Power Five transfers were also brought into the front seven. The unit should be better this season, but it is hard to be worse than last.
Outlook
New Mexico is one of the bottom-tier programs in the Mountain West, but the situation does not seem as dire as that of San Jose State or Nevada. Dampier had some moments as quarterback last season, and Mendenhall is a good defensive coach. Having said that, this team might be better for bettors to back from an ATS standpoint. Finding five wins on the schedule the Lobos have for 2024 is a difficult task.
Pick: Under 2.5 Wins
