New Mexico State Aggies:
Under new head coach Tony Sanchez, the Aggies will try to follow up a successful 2023 campaign with a 10-5 record and a victory in the C-USA Championship Game. They’ll do so without former head coach Jerry Kill, who stepped down due to his health. He took the program to some new heights and Sanchez, who was pretty much a massive failure at UNLV, comes in with a little bit of pressure.
The Aggies only made one bowl game under Doug Martin and zero under DeWayne Walker and Hal Mumme. Kill was 17-11 over two seasons. Martin won 25 games in nine seasons. There are goals within this program now and Sanchez has to find a way to meet them.
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Offense
Arguably the biggest loss in this conference is Diego Pavia. Not only did he lead the team with 2.973 yards passing, but he also led the team by nearly 300 rushing yards with 928. In total, he accounted for 33 touchdowns. The Aggies were fifth in the nation in rushing yards. That was some unheard of offensive production in Las Cruces.
But, now, Pavia is at Vanderbilt. Kentucky transfer Deuce Hogan seems to be in line to get the first crack, though UTEP transfer Jake McNamara is in the running as well. Apparently most of the roster wasn’t on board with Sanchez, as a mass exodus of transfers took place in the spring, including the top remaining rushers and receivers. The offensive line stuck together, but the skill guys said “Deuces” to Las Cruces.
Defense
The losses are heavy on the defensive side as well. This was actually a top-50 defense by a lot of metrics last year, but leading tackler Keyshaun Elliott is now at Arizona State. Only three returning starters are back and this was another part of the team hit hard by the post-spring transfer portal.
All-name team member Buddha Peleti was tied for the team lead in sacks with 4.5 and he stuck around to see if the vision from Sanchez and DC Joe Morris is worth the risk. This defense looks ripe for some massive steps back, not only because of lost talent, but also because the offense is going to crater as well.
Outlook
It will be tough to replicate what Kill accomplished at New Mexico State, and losing Diego Pavia to Vanderbilt is a huge loss at quarterback. I’d expect a step back this year for the Aggies, as TSI projects them seventh in the conference, with a top-seven offense and top-five defense. However, the win total projection is 4.7 for the Aggies, just above the current DraftKings line by virtue of the schedule.
Pick: Over 4.5 Wins
