New Mexico vs. Minnesota
In what could be a fun matchup on December 26, the Minnesota Golden Gophers will take on the New Mexico Lobos in the Rate Bowl. This game will be played at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona, which could make for a fun atmosphere. Minnesota fans generally travel pretty well, but New Mexico isn’t all that far from Arizona.
This is also a game in which P.J. Fleck will be putting his perfect Minnesota bowl game record on the line. He’s 6-0 straight-up in these since taking over the program, but Jason Eck could have something to say about that. Keep reading for New Mexico vs. Minnesota betting thoughts.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of December 22, 12:30 pm ET; check out our DraftKings Betting Splits and Circa Betting Splits.
Rate Bowl: New Mexico vs. Minnesota (-2.5, 44.5)
Friday, Dec. 26, 4:30 pm ET (ESPN)
Fleck surely wants to move to 7-0 in bowl games with the Golden Gophers, and the fact that he’s coaching a Big Ten team against a Mountain West team probably makes it seem like he’ll do so. Our VSiN betting splits pages show a ton of public support for Minnesota, and the difference in conference strength probably has a lot to do with that. However, you do want to be careful backing a mediocre program in a Power Four conference against a good one in a Group of Five conference. That’s the exact situation we have here.
While Minnesota is 7-5 overall and 5-4 in Big Ten play this season, New Mexico is 9-3 overall and 6-2 in Mountain West play. The Lobos also happened to play Michigan pretty well in a Week 1 loss, and they earned a 35-10 win over UCLA on September 12. With that in mind, there really isn’t any reason we shouldn’t take New Mexico seriously. The Lobos have already shown the world that they can compete with Big Ten opponents.
New Mexico also has a better advanced statistics profile when looking at CFB Graphs. The Lobos are 65th in the nation in EPA per play (-0.002) and 54th in EPA per play allowed (-0.020). Meanwhile, the Golden Gophers are 75th in EPA per play (-0.020) and 67th in EPA per play allowed (0.008).
Diving a little deeper into the stats also reveals some real problem areas for Minnesota. This Golden Gophers offense is just 89th in the country in Rush EPA per play (-0.042), and they’re going up against a Lobos defense that is 39th in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.048). Will Minnesota be able to move the ball on early downs? It’s hard to make the argument the team will — especially with some talented running backs transferring and opting out. I’m also not sure the passing game will be any better. Drake Lindsey isn’t the greatest quarterback in the world, and the Gophers will have some big-time wideouts — including Le’Meke Brockington — out for this game.
Of course, there’s no guarantee New Mexico will score enough against Minnesota. However, it should help that the Gophers will be missing some pieces in the front seven, as we know this Lobos team wants to run the ball. And I do think there’s a chance the New Mexico passing game looks alright here. The Lobos are 45th in the nation in Dropback EPA per play (0.058), while the Golden Gophers are just 68th in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.008).
New Mexico is also 3-1 both straight-up and against the spread under Eck in games with lines between +3 and -3. The team is also 3-1 both SU and ATS in nonconference games. I also like that Minnesota is just 14-18 ATS when facing defenses that allow 120 or fewer rushing yards per game under Fleck.
New Mexico vs. Minnesota Rate Bowl Prediction
The Golden Gophers will undoubtedly take this game seriously, as they have been a good bowl team under Fleck. However, a good argument can be made that they’ll be the inferior squad when they take the field here. They’re also in worse shape when looking at injuries, opt-outs, and transfers. When you combine that with the fact that we have already seen New Mexico go 2-0 ATS versus Big Ten opponents, how can you not like the Lobos?
Pick: New Mexico +2.5 (-110 – 1.5 units)
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