North Carolina vs. TCU
The 2026 college football season begins in Dublin, Ireland, as the North Carolina Tar Heels and TCU Horned Frogs play at Aviva Stadium. As head coach of the New England Patriots for 24 seasons, Bill Belichick oversaw three games in Europe – two in the UK and one in Germany – and now he’ll take the Tar Heels to Ireland in just Year 2 of his college football coaching tenure. Bettors don’t seem to love his chances in this one, as the North Carolina vs. TCU line has grown to 7.5 with a total of 46.5 for the Noon ET kickoff.
Odds from Circa Sports as of August 25, 5:30 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 0 College Football Picks and Predictions.
North Carolina vs. TCU (-7.5, 46.5)
Noon ET (ESPN)
Pick: TCU -7.5
It is hardly surprising to see rain in the forecast for Dublin on Saturday, but we’re not expected to see British Open conditions or anything like that. The wind should be relatively inconsequential and the heaviest of the rain seems more likely to fall in the morning than the evening, which is when this game will be played local time.
If points are going to be tough to come by, it may be less about the weather and more about the quarterbacks for these two teams. Rather than go with untapped potential and upside, the Tar Heels named transfer Billy Edwards Jr. as the starter. Over four seasons of college ball, he has a 19/10 TD/INT ratio with 3,435 passing yards and a 62.1% completion rate. He was reportedly paid about $1 million to transfer from Maryland to Wisconsin for the 2025 season after posting a 15/9 TD/INT ratio with 2,881 yards passing, but got hurt early for the Badgers and then moved on to Chapel Hill. The injury allowed him another season of eligibility and North Carolina poached him out of the portal.
Personally, as I wrote about in our College Football Betting Guide, I would have liked to see UNC take a shot with Miles O’Neill, who transferred in from Texas A&M alongside new OC Bobby Petrino, or talented freshman Travis Burgess. Regardless, the hope is that Petrino can inject some life into an offense that ranked 120th in the nation with just 4.94 yards per play last season and had just 4.84 YPP against FBS foes.
As you would expect, however, with a Belichick-coached team, the defense was very good. The Tar Heels managed to avoid a negative YPP differential despite the poor offensive numbers because of that unit, which allowed 4.94 overall and 5.09 to FBS opponents. With limited help from the offense and a -3 turnover margin, the defense allowed just 24.5 PPG.
It might be up to The Hoodie to call the defensive plays, as his son Steve remains on medical leave. He did a good job with that unit last season and Melkart Abou-Jaoude’s 10.5 sacks are back, but the unit is in a little bit of a state of flux with Steve’s absence.
TCU has some burning questions heading into this game as well. First off, Josh Hoover was the program’s third all-time leading passer, but he’s now at Indiana. Instead, it will be Harvard transfer Jaden Craig. The Horned Frogs also have a new OC in Gordon Sammis, who moved to Fort Worth after Jim Mora Jr. went from UConn to Colorado State. Even though Sonny Dykes is an Air Raid disciple, we’ll probably see more pro-style looks here. The loss of Hoover is notable after TCU racked up 6.11 yards per play, but the upside for the team really hinges on the defense.
The Horned Frogs allowed 5.53 YPP last season and really struggled on defense in November and then in their bowl game. A lack of pressure and too many explosive plays were to blame. TCU was tied for 130th in the nation with 25 passing plays allowed of 30+ yards and they only mustered 23 sacks over 13 games.
North Carolina vs. TCU Prediction
I dropped the Tar Heels two points in my power ratings with the announcement that Edwards would start. While UNC brings back a good bit of production at the skill positions, the team only ran for 3.7 yards per carry. TCU has the talent edge and Craig is a mobile guy who could surprise a bit with his dual-threat capabilities. Edwards is pretty much a one-dimensional player and that matters early in the season when guys are going to blow assignments and miss some blocks.
Pick: TCU -7.5
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 0 games on our Pro Picks Page.
