MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, August 26.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
1:10 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers
Things have been a struggle for Rays starting pitcher Freddy Peralta, who has had an almighty struggle this season with a 5.33 ERA, a career-low 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings, 1.5 home runs, and 3.6 walks per nine innings. In his last 11 starts, he has allowed a total of 50 runs and 12 home runs across 52 innings. Tigers starting pitcher Troy Melton is due for a lot of regression on his 1.60 ERA, with a 3.84 fielding independent and 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings, and is supported by a lineup that, since the All-Star Break, is second in the American League in scoring with 5.2 runs per game.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline -118 and Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Tigers -147 and Total 8.6
4:05 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants
Reds starting pitcher Nick Lodolo has shown minor improvement recently with two runs or fewer allowed in three of his past five starts, but for the season owns a 5.04 ERA with 1.6 home runs and 3.7 walks per nine innings while getting only 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Giants starting pitcher Landen Roupp has a 4.34 ERA but a lower 3.66 fielding independent with 0.7 home runs per nine innings allowed and is supported by the better bullpen, as the Giants are 18th in bullpen ERA at 4.17 while the Reds are 25th at 4.50.
Pick: Giants Moneyline -115
Greg’s Handicap: Giants -128
4:07 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels
The Angels are last in the league in scoring at home with about 3.6 runs per game and face Guardians starting pitcher Joey Cantillo, who owns a 3.73 ERA with 4.4 walks and 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces an Angels team that has the highest strikeout percentage of any team in the American League and the second-lowest walk percentage among American League teams. Angels starting pitcher Grayson Rodriguez owns a 6.41 ERA with 1.4 home runs and 4.1 walks per nine innings, but has a lower 4.80 fielding independent and has allowed three earned runs or fewer in each of his past five starts.
Pick: Guardians vs. Angels Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.3
6:40 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins
Since the All-Star Break, the Red Sox lead the league in scoring with over 5.6 runs per game and face starting pitcher Ryan Gusto, who has a 4.37 ERA with 1.2 home runs allowed and eight strikeouts per nine innings while being supported by a bullpen that has a 5.10 ERA since July 1, which ranks 27th in the league. Red Sox starting pitcher Sonny Gray has a low 2.79 ERA, but his eight strikeouts per nine innings are his lowest since 2016, and his 3.60 fielding independent points toward regression.
Pick: Red Sox vs. Marlins Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.1
7:07 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Royals starting pitcher Randy Dobnak has a 1.58 ERA that seems highly unsustainable, as his fielding independent is 3.70 with 5.7 strikeouts and 3.9 walks per nine innings. Blue Jays expected starting pitcher Shane Bieber landed on the injured list on Tuesday, likely making this a bullpen game, and the Blue Jays have the better bullpen, as they are seventh in ERA at 3.78 while the Royals are 29th with a 5.21 bullpen ERA.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline -132 and Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Blue Jays -148 and Total 8.9
7:15 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves
Braves starting pitcher AJ Smith-Shawver is making just his third start this season after allowing six runs in his small 8 2/3-inning sample in the first two starts. He had a 3.86 ERA with 8.5 strikeouts and 4.3 walks per nine innings in a more complete 20-start sample size last season and has to face a Dodgers lineup that leads the league in scoring away from home with over 5.6 runs per game. Dodgers starting pitcher Roki Sasaki has a 4.42 ERA and 4.79 fielding independent with 1.6 home runs and 3.6 walks per nine innings, but has pitched significantly better recently with three runs or fewer allowed in each of his past seven starts and two runs or fewer in six straight starts.
Pick: Dodgers Moneyline -125 and Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Dodgers -137 and Total 9.3
7:40 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox
Rangers starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore appears on the surface to be in for positivity on his 4.26 ERA, as he has a 3.70 fielding independent with 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings. At home, that ERA drops to 2.99, while it rises to 5.42 away from home. White Sox starting pitcher Sean Burke has a 3.27 ERA with 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings and only one home run per nine innings allowed and faces a Rangers lineup that entered Tuesday tied for 28th in run scoring away from home with four runs per game. The White Sox are also fourth in bullpen ERA since July 1 at 3.33.
Pick: White Sox Moneyline -130
Greg’s Handicap: White Sox -151
