Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, August 25, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Teams on five-game winning streaks and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 216-165 (+26.50 units, ROI: 7%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+116 at TOR), CLEVELAND (-140 at LAA)
* In MLB games occurring in August or later between teams that have >= 0.580 win pct, SMALLER FAVORITES in the -111 to -175 line range have gone 54-22 SU for +23.69 units (ROI: 31.2%) in the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-148 at ATL)
Trend: TEXAS is 17-4 (81%, +11.01 units) in their last 21 games versus the Chicago White Sox
— The ROI on this trend is 52.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-106 at CWS)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%. The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are back over the profitability line at 196-151 for +6.69 units and an ROI of +1.9%.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+116 at STL)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen hast to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 56-49 for -9.41 units for an ROI of -9%.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): TEXAS (-106 at CWS)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 77-119 for -46.30 units and an ROI of -23.6%. Fading these teams continues to produce and this has been our most consistent angle this season.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+131 at NYY)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle. For 2026, they are off to a 131-194 start for -23.89 after losing about 34 units over the last 10 weeks. This angle has finally gone deep into the red for the season; its usual territory.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+137 at WSH), ST LOUIS (-124 vs BAL), CINCINNATI (-103 at SF)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%. The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 269-325 for -20.84 units, but it has taken a huge step on the road to recovery since the ASB by going 78-78, +13.35 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+138 vs LAD), SAN FRANCISCO (-104 vs CIN), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-101 vs TEX), BALTIMORE (+116 at STL), PHILADELPHIA (-104 at SEA)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 225-147 for +51.27 units, an ROI of +13.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-108 at AZ), SAN DIEGO (-119 vs PIT), TAMPA BAY (-125 at DET), TORONTO (-124 vs KC)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 157-202 start for -38.87 units (ROI -10.8%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game-winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 71-93 for -21.69 units and a solid ROI -13.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – TEXAS (-106 at CWS)
3+ games – KANSAS CITY (+116 at TOR), LA DODGERS (-148 at ATL)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 136-158 for -1.37 units. However, it has lost -14.67 units over the last month and a half.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (+116 vs TB), COLORADO (+137 at WSH), ST LOUIS (-124 vs BAL)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 526-420 for +45.21 units and an ROI of 4.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+116 at TOR), LA DODGERS (-148 at ATL)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -106 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 454-389 but for -94.30 units and an ROI of -11.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (-124 vs KC), ST LOUIS (-124 vs BAL)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 469-419 record for +42.97 units and an ROI of 4.8% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+116 at TOR)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 475-457 (51%) for +15.04 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-101 vs TEX), ARIZONA (+101 vs CHC)
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 2,205-2,084 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -270.41 units. This represents an ROI of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (+116 at TOR), SEATTLE (-104 vs PHI), MINNESOTA (-147 at ATH), TEXAS (-106 at CWS), WASHINGTON (-147 vs COL)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2271-2853 (44.3%) for -264.37 units and an ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (+116 at STL), MILWAUKEE (-159 at NYM), PHILADELPHIA (-104 at SEA), CINCINNATI (-103 at SF)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 677-566 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +19.30 units, for an ROI of 1.6%.
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+101 vs CHC)
Hitting a lot of home runs has carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 399-200 (66.6%) for +60.16 units and an ROI of 10%!
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR SEATTLE vs PHI (-104 CURRENTLY)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 361-318 (53.2%) for +26.12 units and an ROI of 3.8% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (+137 vs MIN)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 113-165 SU (-26.26 units, ROI: -9.4%) as underdogs in the follow-up game since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+111 at SD)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 45-111 skid (-39.56 units, ROI -25.4%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+137 at WSH)
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on an 80-154 skid (-40.92 units, ROI: -17.5%).
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+137 at WSH)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing streaks have gone 20-25 (+8.79 units, ROI: 19.5%), while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 108-195 (-65.57 units, ROI: -21.6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+137 at WSH)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in Game 5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 334-342 run (+15.60 units, ROI: 2.3%).
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+116 vs TB)
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams, as they are 92-72 (+24.11 units, ROI: 14.7%) in their last 164 tries to extend streaks.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+116 at TOR)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of 5-games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 216-165 (+26.50 units, ROI: 7%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+116 at TOR), CLEVELAND (-140 at LAA)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 270-175 in their last 445 tries (+44.62 units, ROI: 10%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+116 at TOR), LA DODGERS (-148 at ATL), CLEVELAND (-140 at LAA)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #5:
In MLB games occurring in August or later between teams that have >= 0.580 win pct, SMALLER FAVORITES in the -111 to -175 line range have gone 54-22 SU for +23.69 units (ROI: 31.2%) in the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-148 at ATL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 555-545 for +20.63 units, good for +1.9% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: ATLANTA +138 (+37 diff), LA ANGELS +131 (+25), BALTIMORE +116 (+22), SAN FRANCISCO -104 (+18), SEATTLE -104 (+14), DETROIT +116 (+13), HOUSTON +131 (+11), ATHLETICS +137 (+11)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: TORONTO -124 (+47 diff), WASHINGTON -147 (+20), SAN DIEGO -119 (+13)
Theoretically, the best “edges” come up when a score projection comes up with a full 1.0 RUN edge on either the Over or Under. On Over projections so far, when the simulation shows at least a 1.0 run edge, Overs are 19-12-2 for +4.98 units and an ROI of 16.1%.
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (1.0 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: BAL-STL OVER 8 (+1.3)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) COLORADO (50-81) at (902) WASHINGTON (62-71)
Trend: Over the total is 37-24-3 (+10.60 units) in Washington home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): COL-WSH (o/u at 8.5)
(903) MILWAUKEE (81-50) at (904) NEW YORK-NL (59-72)
Trend: Under the total is 26-10-2 (+15.00 units) when Milwaukee faces left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-NYM (o/u at 7.5)
(905) LOS ANGELES-NL (80-51) at (906) ATLANTA (76-55)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow’s teams are 14-4 (+4.53 units) in his last 18 starts vs NL East opponents
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-148 at ATL)
(909) PITTSBURGH (64-69) at (910) SAN DIEGO (71-61)
Trend: Under the total is 9-4-1 (+4.50 units) when Paul Skenes is a slight underdog (-108 to +111 line range) since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-SD (o/u at 7)
Trend: PIT is 3-10 (-8.96 units) on the road versus non-divisional NL opponents with starter Paul Skenes in his career
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+111 at SD)
Trend: Over the total is 14-3 (+10.65 units) when San Diego is favored within -115 to -165 line range against NL opponents with starter Michael King since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PIT-SD (o/u at 7)
(911) CINCINNATI (62-70) at (912) SAN FRANCISCO (53-78)
Trend: Brady Singer’s teams are 13-3 (+11.31 units) in his last 16 starts vs NL West opponents
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-103 at SF)
(913) TAMPA BAY (78-53) at (914) DETROIT (61-70)
Trend: Tampa Bay is 50-29 (+15.42 units) in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-125 at DET)
(915) HOUSTON (65-66) at (916) NEW YORK-AL (74-56)
Trend: Under the total is 62-41-5 (+16.90 units) when the Yankees are a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-NYY (o/u at 8.5)
(919) TEXAS (66-66) at (920) CHICAGO-AL (68-63)
Trend: Texas is 7-14 (-8.86 units) in the last 21 night games as a -130 favorite or less (including underdog) with starter Jacob deGrom
Trend: CWS is 8-4 (+4.14 units) at home with starter Anthony Kay this season
Trends Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-101 vs TEX)
(921) CLEVELAND (66-66) at (922) LOS ANGELES-AL (52-80)
Trend: Under the total is 42-23-1 (+16.70 units) in Angels home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-LAA (o/u at 7)
(923) MINNESOTA (64-68) at (924) ATHLETICS (51-81)
Trend: Over the total is 40-20-6 (+18.00 units) in Minnesota road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-ATH (o/u at 10)
(925) BOSTON (72-59) at (926) MIAMI (67-65)
Trend: Miami is 10-24 (-19.36 units) on the run line vs left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (+1.5 vs BOS)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #3: Chicago Cubs at Arizona, Mon 8/24-Wed 8/26
Trend: Underdogs are 17-13 (56.7%, +6.12 units) in the last 30 of the AZ-CHC series
— The ROI on this trend is 20.4%.
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+101 vs CHC)
Series #16: Cleveland at LA Angels, Mon 8/24-Wed 8/26
Trend: Home teams are 24-9 (72.7%, +13.91 units) in the last 33 games between Cleveland and the LA Angels
— The ROI on this trend is 42.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+131 vs CLE)
Series #28: Houston at NY Yankees, Tue 8/25-Thu 8/27
Trend: The YANKEES are on a 14-5 (73.7%, +8.75 units) run versus Houston
— The ROI on this trend is 46.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-140 vs HOU)
Series #35: Texas at Chicago White Sox, Mon 8/24-Wed 8/26
Trend: TEXAS is 17-4 (81%, +11.01 units) in their last 21 games versus the Chicago White Sox
— The ROI on this trend is 52.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-106 at CWS)
Series #36: Minnesota at Athletics, Mon 8/24-Wed 8/26
Trend: Favorites are on a 23-6 (79.3%, +12.89 units) surge in the Athletics-Minnesota head-to-head series
— The ROI on this trend is 44.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-147 at ATH)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-147 vs COL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2025 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): HOUSTON (+131 vs NYY)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-158 at MIA), ST LOUIS (-124 vs BAL), PHILADELPHIA (-104 at SEA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season and a half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-ATH (o/u at 10)
Team-Specific Momentum-Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Monday, August 31)
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