On Friday, January 10th, the No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes take on the No. 5 Texas Longhorns in the College Football Playoff Semifinals. This game will be played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, and the winner will take on the winner of a meeting between No. 7 Notre Dame and No. 6 Penn State. Keep reading for odds, analysis and predictions for this showdown. But make sure you also check out our College Football Bowl Games Hub for all of our VSiN college football betting content.

College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Texas Longhorns

How To Watch Ohio State vs. Texas

Where: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
When: 7:30 pm ET on Friday, January 10th
Channel: ESPN

 

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Ohio State vs. Texas Odds

Moneyline: Ohio State -225, Texas +185
Spread: Ohio State -6 (-110), Texas +6 (-110)
Total: Over 53.5 (-110), Under 53.5 (-110)

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish. They can change. Shop around for the best prices!

Ohio State vs. Texas Prediction

Our DraftKings betting splits and Circa betting splits pages show a ton of public support for Ohio State. That’s pretty understandable given what we’ve seen over the last few weeks. The Buckeyes were dealing with all sorts of question marks heading into the College Football Playoff, as many wanted head coach Ryan Day fired after another loss to Michigan. But Ohio State pounded Tennessee 42-17 as a 7.5-point favorite in Columbus in the first round. The Buckeyes then earned a 20-point win over undefeated Oregon as a 2.5-point favorite in the Rose Bowl. Suddenly, the narrative has changed surrounding this highly talented Ohio State team, with the public buying into two weeks of awesome performances. But it definitely seems like there’s some pro money on Texas at Circa, which is a very sharp book. And I’m having a hard time not seeing value on the Longhorns myself.

While Texas hasn’t been nearly as dominant as Ohio State over the last two games, the Longhorns stack up nicely against the Buckeyes over the course of the entire season. That’s why Ohio State was just a 1.5-point favorite in most lookahead lines for this game, and it’s also why our analytics expert Steve Makinen has an estimated line of Ohio State -1.6 on the matchup page for this one.

Many will point to the fact that Ohio State is first in both EPA per play (0.133) and EPA per play allowed (-0.159) this season, and that’s undoubtedly a scary thing to bet against. However, Texas is sixth in EPA per play (0.116) and third in EPA per play allowed (-0.143). This is an elite football team, even if the last two weeks might not suggest that. And one thing that really stands out is that Texas is third in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.160). This will be the toughest passing defense that Will Howard has faced all season. Howard has obviously played well in the two playoff games thus far, but a lot of people had concerns about him heading into the postseason. Are those suddenly just gone? And how about the Ohio State play calling? It was a nightmare in The Game, which is why people were calling for Day’s job to begin with. Chip Kelly was also under fire for the run-heavy approach the Buckeyes had in that one. Do you have full trust in those two against a Longhorns defense that can occasionally look impenetrable?

Of course, Texas will have to find a way to get the offense going against a very good Ohio State defense. That’s the strength of this Buckeyes team, and the Longhorns — and especially quarterback Quinn Ewers — have been inconsistent offensively throughout the season. But we did see last week that Ewers found some confidence in overtime against the Sun Devils. So, if Ohio State sells out to stop a good Texas running game, Ewers should be able to make some big throws over the top. For what it’s worth, Steve Sarkisian is a very good play caller. Sure, his offenses can occasionally stall out and leave you scratching your head. But for the most part, he does a great job of scheming things up — especially early in games. So, maybe Texas will jump out to a lead and then put a ton of pressure on Howard and the Ohio State offense.

It’s also hard to ignore that Ohio State is just 1-5 against the spread as a neutral field favorite under Day. Also, for those that care about games against common opponents, Texas romped Michigan 31-12 at The Big House.

It just feels like there has been a little too much weight put into these last two weeks. That said, while I probably lean towards Ohio State winning this game, it’s difficult to pass on Texas and the points. That’s especially true with this game being played in Arlington. The Buckeyes have a great fanbase, so they’ll surely have a good amount of fans here. But Texas will have the majority in the building.

If you’re not on board with the Longhorns, the Under is another solid option. The Under is 4-2 in the six games that Ohio State has played as a neutral field favorite under Day, and it’s also 8-5 in the games that the Buckeyes have played against teams with winning records in that time. On top of that, the Under is also 4-2 in the games that Texas has played as an underdog with Sarkisian on the sidelines. It’s also 5-2 in the seven games the Longhorns have played against defenses that allow 310.0 or fewer yards per game with Sark as the coach.

Pick: Texas +6 (-110)

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