SUN BELT CONFERENCE OVERVIEW
The Sun Belt remains the only conference in college football to still use divisions, as the 14 teams in the conference are split right down the middle to form the East and West. Traditionally, the East has been stronger with teams like App State and Coastal Carolina and only got stronger when James Madison and Marshall joined the conference. The West is headlined primarily by Louisiana and Troy, but Louisiana Tech is a conference newcomer this season looking to make some noise. Texas State jumped ship to join the reimagined Pac-12.
Conference favorite James Madison has experienced big changes once again, as Bob Chesney followed predecessor Curt Cignetti to the Big Ten. Billy Napier, lovingly (sort of) referred to as “Sun Belt Billy” for his time at Louisiana, is back in the conference now after falling short of expectations at Florida. Incredibly, he is one of just three new head coaches in the conference, as we usually see a lot of turnover in the Sun Belt and similar leagues. The others are Ryan Beard at Coastal Carolina and Blake Anderson, another former Sun Belt boss, at Southern Miss.
This is a conference that is important to know because of the early-season weeknight games across the ESPN family of networks, so you’re going to get a few standalone Sun Belt nights where those teams are front and center before we really get into the NBA and NHL seasons. There can be some excellent betting opportunities for those who are keeping tabs on the conference.
Of course, the carrot of the College Football Playoff berth that dangles in front of the highest-ranked G6 conference champ is something that adds intrigue to the season. Last year, it was James Madison who locked that up and put forth a decent effort against Oregon, covering the 21-point number in a 17-point loss. The Dukes are +270 to run it back in the “Fun Belt”, but they are +1500 to make the CFP for a second straight year. Old Dominion is the second shot at +460 before we get to Louisiana (7-1) and Troy (8-1), so the East looks to be outpacing the West yet again.
EAST DIVISION TEAM PREVIEWS
APPALACHIAN STATE MOUNTAINEERS
The boys from Boone have had back-to-back five-win seasons, an unacceptable outcome for a team that has won 10+ games in a season four times over the last decade. Last year’s team got invited to the Birmingham Bowl against division rival Georgia Southern and got waxed in a game that they didn’t expect to play and didn’t really want to play. Other bowl opt-outs gave the Mountaineers a chance, even though they fell short of the six regular-season wins required for eligibility.
On the plus side, things seem to be looking up in Year 2 for Dowell Loggains. Per 247Sports, App State reeled in the second-ranked transfer portal class, including a few new options at QB, and the top freshman class in the conference. The tempo also appears to be looking up, as new OC Mike Anthony was an assistant under Kendal Briles at multiple stops. App State plays at the highest elevation east of the Mississippi River in FBS and using that to their advantage makes a ton of sense, if Loggains and the new-look offense are able to achieve that.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Who will lead the team up the mountain?
It’s probably fair to say that Loggains wasn’t enamored with any of his QB options last season, as AJ Swann and JJ Kohl both had nearly the same amount of pass attempts and three other QBs also got some reps. This season, all of them are elsewhere, so the position group had to be rebuilt via the portal. In the end, Loggains and his staff settled on Malachi Singleton from Purdue, Henry Hasselbeck from UCLA, and Tommy Ulatowski from Kent State. Hasselbeck is indeed the son of Matt, who Loggains coached with the Titans in the early 2010s. Hasselbeck and Singleton are more mobile than last year’s options and should add more explosiveness to an offense that had just 5.4 YPP and just 24.2 PPG. The Mountaineers had gained at least six yards per play basically every season since joining the SBC prior to last season’s poor showing.
Do all the pieces fit on offense?
With a new scheme and a new QB room, the Mountaineers also have a bunch of new faces at wide receiver and running back. Again, this was one of the worst offensive units that App State has had in a long time and Loggains is a guy who has coached offenses in some capacity his entire career. Ja’Quez Cross from Arkansas State and Chris Lofton from Gardner-Webb are two guys that could generate explosives and the others are a collection of highly-touted recruits looking for a fresh start, JUCO transfers, and some holdovers from Year 1. If this offense does run with some tempo, the improved depth at the skill spots is promising.
How good can this defense be?
This is probably the most important question for App State. I fully believe that the offense will be better and the presence of more of a dual-threat QB may be a game-changer. Defensively, though, the Mountaineers, who did improve by 0.7 YPP and 3.1 PPG year over year, were a major disappointment in conference play. They gave up 33 PPG and 450 yards per contest. They were outgained by 1.1 yards per carry and simply stunk up the joint, going just 2-7 in SBC play. DC DJ Smith did a good job at Missouri with Eli Drinkwitz, who coached the Mountaineers to a 12-1 record in 2019 before skipping out before the bowl game. With leading tackler Colton Phares back and a ton of transfers, this is the most important, and most unknown, unit on the team.
Appalachian State 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 6.5 Wins
This is an alt win total, as 5.5 with heavy Over juice is the prevailing number. I also think that 18-1 to win the conference is worth some thought. App State welcomes both Old Dominion and James Madison to Kidd Brewer Stadium and avoids Louisiana and Troy from the West. The talent level on this team looks a lot stronger, as Shawn Clark had some good seasons, but wasn’t really bringing in a ton of athleticism. After two down seasons, App State has a good shot to bounce back. My projection is 5.67 wins, but I think this team can overachieve.
COASTAL CAROLINA CHANTICLEERS
When Jamey Chadwell left for Liberty, Coastal Carolina hired Tim Beck. Many of us in the college football gambling community felt like it was one of the biggest coaching downgrades in the nation. While Beck led the Chants to an 8-5 record in Year 1, back-to-back losing seasons sent him packing and now Ryan Beard has been tabbed to lead the program. Beard oversaw Missouri State’s transition from FCS to FBS and got the Bears to a bowl game last season, though he got to work in Conway before that game was played.
The 37-year-old son-in-law of Bobby Petrino is moving up the coaching ranks quickly, but he was at Missouri State for six seasons, three as the DC and three as the head coach. This is a taller task now, especially with about 60 new players in the mix, including a conference-high 42 transfers per 247Sports. Beard did bring his coordinators with him, so there’s some continuity on the sideline, but how quickly will all the newbies buy in?
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Will the Deuce be loose?
The Deuce in question is Deuce Bailey, who backed up Jacob Clark at Missouri State. When Clark got hurt, Bailey got his chance and is a much closer player to Samari Collier, who injected a major spark into the Chanticleers offense last season when he took over for Tad Hudson. Collier, a dual-threat guy with six yards per carry, led the team to over 40 PPG, but he got hurt and it all went to hell from there. Beard is obviously familiar with Bailey and it sure seems like a dual-threat QB is a luxury in the conference. Trever Jackson from Arkansas and JUCO transfer Tre Guerra, who also had offers from Texas Tech, Kentucky, Florida State, LSU, and Virginia, are other options. The talent level at the position as a whole seems a lot better.
How quickly does the offensive line come together?
Beard had the fortune of having a very experienced QB last season in Clark, but he was still sacked 48 times, as the team gave up 52 sacks overall. Furthermore, the Bears had just 3.5 yards per carry, as Clark had 94 scrambles for -16 yards to drag down the average. None of the QB options are experienced at this level, so you have to wonder (and worry) about how many negative plays will come as a result of sacks. This is a girthy offensive line with a bunch of very big dudes, but none of them have really played together and only Daughtry Richardson was a high-ranked recruit. He only played one game at Florida State and transferred to FAU. This is easily the most questionable position group and you can’t do much if you don’t have an offensive line.
Will a fresh start work for the defense?
Most of the offensive players of note are gone, but a few defenders stuck around. Ja’Marion Wayne, Ibrahim Diarra, and Tray Brown are the most notable, as Wayne tied with fellow holdover Myles Woods for the lead in pass breakups, Diarra had a couple sacks, and Brown had nine tackles for loss. LD Scott was the DC at Missouri State and followed Beard here to take over a unit that allowed 33.1 PPG. The Chants allowed 5.5 yards per carry and 474 yards of offense per game in conference play. What’s wild is that Coastal was +9 in TO margin in conference play and went 5-3 while getting scorched on defense. A fresh start can’t hurt.
Coastal Carolina 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 4.5 Wins
This season is all about building for next season. All of the quarterbacks that Beard brought in have eligibility past this season. Same with virtually all of the skill players. This program was unquestionably trending in the wrong direction under Beck and a teardown to the studs makes the most sense. Beard was part of being a program builder at Missouri State, so much so that they went from FCS to FBS. While Coastal is more established with nine years at the FBS level, the program needs a refresh and they’ll get it, but probably at the expense of this season’s record. My projection is 4.86 wins.
GEORGIA SOUTHERN EAGLES
There’s something to be said for an athletic department going into a college football season knowing what to expect in 2026. That’s the case for Georgia Southern with head coach Clay Helton, who has gone to a bowl game in each of his four seasons with the program and just picked up his first bowl win to cap off a 7-6 season. While the ceiling hasn’t proven to be very high in Statesboro, the floor seems to be. Mix in a paycheck game or two, scoop that ESPN money, and keep the machine running.
Would it be nice for the program to take the next step? Absolutely. After all, the 10-3 season in 2018 under Chad Lunsford feels like an eternity ago. Plus, the allure of a G6 CFP berth is a big motivating factor. But, not having to pay a coach’s buyout or constantly shell out money to hire new people and entice new recruits has plenty of perks as well. This season, there are some changes, including a new defensive coordinator.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Will Johnson “Max” out his final college football season?
All-time leading passer JC French transferred to Cincinnati after posting a 20/8 TD/INT ratio with 2,929 yards and six more touchdowns on the ground. It should be noted that French is the program’s all-time leader with just 5,882 yards. Kyle Vantrease played one season there in 2022 and is the third-leading passer with 4,253 yards. Helton moved the Eagles from an option to a spread and so he’s gotten some productive QB play in a relative sense. Max Johnson could have a Vantrease-esque season or better, as he’s played at LSU, Texas A&M, and North Carolina over seven seasons. Many people are probably saying “get a job, bro”, but schools keep paying him to come there and he has the chance to have a massive season in his final year of eligibility.
Who emerges as the go-to receiver?
There will be one. This scheme will lead to somebody putting up numbers, but the top five pass-catchers from last season are all gone, including 1,000-yard receiver Camden Brown. Marcus Sanders and Dalen Cobb combined for 107 catches and eight touchdowns. Brown had 65 and 14 of them went for six. Not a bad ratio. Brown is now with the Cowboys, so he’s technically an NFL-caliber player that needs to be replaced. Perhaps it will be 6-foot-5 Ashton Hollis from Illinois or Andre Greene, a highly-touted recruit who didn’t do much at Virginia. Both Josh Dallas and River Helms were lost for the season early and are back. The WR1 may be unknown, but there are a lot of dudes who can put up stats in this offense, especially with Johnson.
How good can the defense be?
There is a lot of upside to the offense with a very experienced QB in Johnson and a deep skill group. If the defense can take a step forward, then Helton may really be cooking with propane here. Mike Mutz had a defense that generated a ton of negative plays and takeaways last season at Stephen F. Austin. If he can carry over the tackles for loss and sacks, the Eagles will have their first defense with fewer than six yards per play allowed since 2020. This defense managed only 12 sacks last season in 13 games. That should change.
Georgia Southern 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 4.5 Wins
This is tough because the Over 4.5 is juicy, but six wins is a challenge with the schedule. A visit to Clemson and a visit from Houston mean two P4 opponents, plus Troy in cross-division play. This is also an example of how the East Division being much stronger than the West makes it tough for playing some of these futures and props. That being said, this team has a really high ceiling and it might be higher than any of us expect if Mutz can fix the defense. This is one of my biggest overlays with a projection of 5.49 wins, so the alt Over 5.5 is in play.
GEORGIA STATE PANTHERS
The Dell McGee era in Atlanta has not gone well. McGee was an imaginative hire by the athletic department, as he’s spent a lot of time in Georgia, including several seasons with the Bulldogs as a running backs coach/run game coordinator. His reputation as a recruiter was expected to elevate the talent within the program, but it’s still a results-based business and McGee is 4-20 with a 1-15 record in Sun Belt play. The Panthers got skunked in SBC action last season and their lone win was against FCS Murray State.
Injuries didn’t help, especially at the QB position, where Cameran Brown is and was clearly the best option. He posted a 13/1 TD/INT ratio and had 4.7 yards per carry with four rushing TDs, but TJ Finley and Christian Veilleux both played and were awful, as they were a big part of the team’s -11 TO margin. Georgia State even got really lucky to lose just six of their 17 fumbles, but the defense only mustered six takeaways. OC Hue Jackson is back, but the co-DCs are new as McGee probably needs a decent season to save his job.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Is Brown the answer that the offense needs?
Brown had that 13/1 TD/INT ratio mentioned above and 61 carries for 284 yards, but he had three games with 200+ yards passing and the Panthers lost all of those, averaging just 25 PPG. Even with Brown’s ability to move the ball through the air and on the ground, the defense allowed 41, 41, and 38 points. Given that Finley and Veilleux combined for a 9/10 TD/INT ratio, Brown should theoretically help the defense if he can keep a similar ratio to 2025, but even when he played well, it didn’t seem to matter. He didn’t even start the team’s “best” loss, a 14-7 defeat at the hands of CFP team James Madison. Now Brown goes into the season without 1,000-yard WR Ted Hurst and leading rusher Jordon Simmons, who had 5.6 yards per carry.
Where is all the talent?
McGee was hired because of his recruiting prowess, but the Panthers scored four fewer PPG year over year and allowed four more PPG. While having a mobile QB helped limit the sacks to 18, the team also regressed from a yards per carry standpoint. For this season, McGee did secure the lone freshman recruit graded as a four-star by 247Sports in OL Maxwell Robinson. He also snagged some P4-level talent on the OL with guys from Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Georgia Tech, and Oklahoma State, but guys that played sparingly or not at all. All of the running backs are under six feet tall. Leading returning receiver Grant Hollier is one of the few big bodies, as he had just 21 catches. A guy like McGee makes sense on paper, but he doesn’t have a big NIL budget and that’s what you need with this kind of head coach.
Are the new co-defensive coordinators going to provide relief?
Georgia State allowed the most points per game in the second half last season with 20.8. They were outscored essentially 21-8 in the second halves of games, as McGee and his staff failed to adjust and the depth simply wasn’t good enough. Things were so bad for DC Travis Pearson that he left to take a job in the UFL. Cam Clark was working with quarterbacks at Duke and was a high school DC prior to that. John Haneline’s Youngstown State defense gave up 31 PPG last season. With just 18 sacks in back-to-back seasons, a new crop of players probably isn’t a bad thing, especially with 37.8 PPG allowed last season, but these seem to be two underwhelming hires.
Georgia State 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 3.5 Wins
An alt win total at a plus-money price here. McGee hasn’t proven to be a college-level head coach. Position coach? Sure. Recruiter? Absolutely. But, this is also a team that is just 5-18-1 ATS over the last two seasons, so they’ve fallen well short of virtually no expectations. Hurst was a third-round pick, so he’s obviously a huge loss. The Panthers do get saddled with Louisiana from the West and go to App State and James Madison. It’s a rough schedule with a bad team and probably a lame-duck head coach. My projection is 3.63 wins.
JAMES MADISON DUKES
No team in the Sun Belt has been able to leverage the transfer portal better than James Madison. They do have resources, but Curt Cignetti and Bob Chesney have done a masterful job of finding talent, especially at the QB position. Jordan McCloud and Alonza Barnett upheld the standards of the program, even with the transition from FCS to FBS. The biggest question for Billy Napier heading into this season is who will play that position and can they find similar success to their predecessors? With NIL funds allocated elsewhere, the Dukes didn’t go the transfer portal route at QB, really, with the exception of UCF transfer Davi Belfort, who barely played.
247Sports gave James Madison’s portal haul the best grade in the conference by a pretty wide margin, which is good because pretty much all of last season’s production is gone, but a lot of players are from lower-division schools, FCS, or never saw the field at their P4 programs. The season after Cignetti left for Indiana, the Dukes went 9-4, but 4-4 in conference play. Is a similar transitional year in store?
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Is JC Evans the next star at JMU?
A program rich with resources relative to the rest of the conference opted not to pick up an impact transfer at QB, instead putting some faith in Evans, a 6-foot-5 sophomore from the Miami area. He wasn’t a highly sought-after recruit, but he got to learn behind Barnett for two years and has a good returning running back in George Pettaway. He also has transfer Nick Herman, who ran for over seven yards per carry at Drake, so he may not have too much pressure on his shoulders at the outset with a run-heavy approach. The offensive line should lend itself to running the rock effectively. Also, Michigan State wasn’t great last season, but their QBs posted a 20/6 TD/INT ratio and pass game coordinator Aaron Pflugrad is the new QB coach for the Dukes.
Should we remember the name Cam Aiken?
Aiken is the new OC here and a rising star in the coaching world. The Clemson grad was on the staff for two National Championships and then spent time under Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss before running an offense of his own at East Tennessee State last season. The Buccaneers racked up over 32 PPG and better than 440 yards per game. He also coached running backs at South Florida and that group had nearly 200 yards per contest in 2022. This appears to be an outstanding hire by Napier and one who should keep the throttle down here with an offense that averaged 6.4 YPP and 37.1 PPG last season. This really does look like a promising coaching staff, which is hugely important with so many transfers.
How big of a step back will the defense take?
Over four FBS seasons, the Dukes have allowed 2.5, 2.6, 3.5, and 2.8 yards per carry, while giving up just 4.7, 5.0, 4.9, and 4.4 yards per play. The transition from Cignetti to Chesney and the accompanying new coaches and coordinators didn’t foster any downturn. At some point, it feels like the roster attrition has to take hold and lead to setbacks. I gave a bullish case for the offense, but I’m not sure that I can for the defense, though Amar Thomas and Gannon Weathersby are two returning starters of consequence. New DC Robert Bala has worked under Napier, Jedd Fisch (and DC Stephen Belichick), and Nick Saban over the last three years, so that’s a reason for optimism.
James Madison 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 8.5 Wins
The first regular season under Chesney led to an 8-4 record and I could see something similar here, as the quarterback position is a major question mark. While the Dukes have a Week 2 tilt with Wagner that is a quasi-bye, they have to play 11 straight weeks without a bye, as they won’t be off until the weekend of November 21 before facing Coastal Carolina. The schedule includes a long trip west to San Diego State, a random non-conference roadie at UConn, and road games at Old Dominion and App State. My projection is 8.91 wins, but the road slate really is tricky.
MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD
There are several ways of looking at Marshall’s 2025 season. The first is that the athletic department got what they deserved for letting Charles Huff walk after winning the Sun Belt Conference with a 10-3 record. The second is that even with that turmoil, Marshall started 4-2 and had a real shot at bowl eligibility, but lost three times as a favorite over the final five games to finish just 5-7 and miss bowl eligibility for the first time since 2016.
Given that it was a rebuilding year, Tony Gibson actually did a pretty good job to get the team to where he did, even if the season ended in disappointing fashion, losing to Georgia Southern as a 10-point favorite in Huntington with a bowl game on the line. On the plus side, Carlos Del Rio-Wilson found a home after bouncing around a bit and enough players bought in to the point where they’ve stuck around. On the other hand, a 5-7 team didn’t really get any better via the portal or the freshman class based on their conference ranking.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Can the offense take things up a notch?
The defense took a massive step back last season for Marshall, but the offense was nearly as good as the season prior. The Thundering Herd only saw minor drop-offs in PPG, YPP, and sacks allowed, but gained more yardage on a per-game basis and completed more passes. Del Rio-Wilson was the team’s leading rusher with 661 yards and he threw for more than 2,000 yards with 23 total TDs. It was his first crack as a starter after stops at Florida and Syracuse and he took advantage of it. If CDRW can stay healthy, he should be fine, but what will the other guys be able to contribute? This was a by-committee approach at RB and three guys who averaged 5+ yards per carry are gone. Leading WR Demarcus Lacey, who had 28 more receptions than anybody else, is also gone. That said, WR was one of the focal points in the portal and TE Toby Payne is one of the best in the conference at his position.
Will Brad Lambert fix the defense?
Former Charlotte head coach Brad Lambert is back for his third go-round after coaching up the defense here in 2019-20. He also got his start with Marshall in the early ‘90s. He was the DC at Wake Forest prior to Jake Dickert’s arrival and then a defensive assistant at Kentucky. He’s been around a long time and this defense badly needs help, so going to an old friend makes sense. While the offense was pretty similar in Huff’s absence, the defense allowed 7.2 more PPG and 0.6 more YPP, including an increase of more than 60 passing yards per game. The cornerback position was a big focus in the portal after allowing 262 passing yards per contest and 264 in conference play.
Is Tony Gibson head coach material?
Gibson was a DC for a decade at West Virginia and NC State before getting his first crack as a head coach here with the Herd. In Year 1, his team lost five games as a favorite. The defense was significantly worse than the offense. They fell short of a bowl game and a winning record despite a +6 turnover margin. Two of their losses featured positive yardage differentials of 275 and 156 yards. It was a massive rebuilding job to get enough capable bodies, as the program had just over 40 players after the mass departures in December and January. But, now Gibson won’t have those excuses if he once again fails as a favorite or can’t close out games.
Marshall 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 7.5 Wins
This is not a bet, but rather a gamble on the Herd’s schedule. They draw South Alabama and UL Monroe from the West Division and all of their home games are winnable in conference play, plus they host a FCS team and a poor Middle Tennessee squad. However, the road games are daunting outside of facing the Warhawks at the end of the season, with trips to Penn State, James Madison, and Old Dominion as the highlights. Coastal Carolina is now coached by Ryan Beard, who dropped 474 yards on the Herd when they played Missouri State last season. It’s a tough slate, with a projection of 7.35 wins.
OLD DOMINION MONARCHS
The Indiana Hoosiers won 10 of their 16 victories by 14+ points. One of the six games came against Old Dominion, who was badly outgained in the regular-season opener, but lost 27-14 in what turned out to be a sign of things to come. Ricky Rahne’s program put it all together and improved by five wins to finish 10-3. What is amazing, though, is that ODU’s three losses were by 13, 24, and 36 points, as they were -5 in turnovers against Marshall and got pummeled by James Madison. Otherwise, 10 wins was one fewer than the previous two seasons combined.
These whiplash sorts of seasons are very possible at the G6 level nowadays thanks to the portal, as some teams get completely wrecked and others stay intact enough to take advantage. This season, ODU is one of those teams with very heavy losses, including QB Colton Joseph to Wisconsin after rushing for more than 1,000 yards and throwing for over 2,600 more. He’s hardly the only loss, as OC Kevin Decker now holds the same role at Memphis, but Rahne has a favorable schedule to work with.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Can Cook keep the offense cooking?
Kody Cook is the new OC after serving as the wide receivers coach last season. He’s also the new QB coach with some shifting across the staff. The Monarchs relied very heavily on their top three receivers last season, as only three guys had 11+ catches and they had 762, 719, and 667 yards while nobody else had more than 200. All three of those guys are gone, so Cook’s old position group needs to be reimagined, but this should be a run-heavy team again. Devin Roche had 5.7 yards per carry, not nearly as good as Trequan Jones’ 7.5 yards per pop, plus JUCO transfer Trey Hall was originally an Ole Miss commit. Quinn Henicle and Jaxon Potter will have skill guys to work with and Cook, who played at Kansas State and coached at Tennessee, was a logical guy to promote with Decker’s departure.
Who gets more reps as the starting QB?
Henicle is the holdover and the guy who knows this system and scheme, but he also wasn’t very good last season. He ran for 4.8 yards per carry on 44 attempts and only completed 42.5% of his passes, as he was just 11-for-25 against a skeleton crew USF team in the bowl game. Meanwhile, Potter, who was a higher-graded recruit, was willing to come all the way from Washington State and head to the other coast as a California native. That said, Henicle was recruited to some FCS schools with good rushing attacks and also Army, so he was clearly viewed as an impact QB in the ground game. Neither guy looks poised to top Joseph’s numbers, but Rahne needs to get this right and fix it early in the season, if he doesn’t coming out of camp.
Should we buy or sell this defense?
Rahne, an offensive-minded guy, seems to have finally rounded that side of the ball into form, going up in yards per carry and points per game in each of the last three seasons. However, the biggest separator for the Monarchs last season was Blake Seiler’s defense. That group shaved off 9.5 PPG and 0.9 YPP from the previous season, holding opponents to just 18.5 PPG and 4.8 YPP. As a team, ODU outgained opponents by 1.9 yards per play. Seiler saw the sack total go from 19 to 26 to 39 in a three-year span and put forth a top-25 third-down defense. Seiler also sees the return of two linebackers who started in 2024, but missed most of last season, and has returning starters at each level of the defense. I’ll buy that they’re better than 2024, but worse than 2025.
Old Dominion 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 7.5 Wins
The schedule is kind to Rahne this season, as James Madison and Marshall go to Norfolk and the non-conference road game at UConn, albeit randomly timed, is very winnable, along with hapless Georgia State, newcomer Louisiana Tech, and a Coastal Carolina team in a transitional phase. Drawing Southern Miss and LA Tech from the West Division isn’t bad at all and the East Carolina game can be had at home. I have them favored in nine games, with +1.5 and +0.5 in two other games, and a projection of 7.51 wins.
WEST DIVISION TEAM PREVIEWS
ARKANSAS STATE RED WOLVES
It took a couple of seasons for Butch Jones to pick up the pieces in Jonesboro coming out of COVID and the end of Blake Anderson’s tenure, but the program has gone to a bowl game three seasons in a row and has their first winning streak in bowl games since 2012-13 under Gus Malzahn and Bryan Harsin. Jones was even able to get his team through Sun Belt play with a 5-3 record despite a ghastly -11 TO margin. We’ll see what kind of fortunes the Red Wolves have this season, as they’ll play without QB Jaylen Raynor for the first time since 2022, a season in which they finished 3-9.
Depending on how you look at it, Raynor’s departure comes at either a good time or a bad time. The running game dropped off precipitously last season and Raynor had a lot to do with it, posting just 2.7 yards per carry. The Red Wolves also have a new OC in Garrett Altman, who was coaching up Diego Pavia at Vanderbilt the last two years, so a new offensive installation is taking place. But, Raynor also leaves at the same time as all-time leading receiver Corey Rucker, so there is a ton of offensive production to replace.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Who will emerge at quarterback?
The QB puzzle is one that will take some time to put together. Ethan Crawford is the holdover, but he didn’t play last season. Trey Owens was a four-star prospect out of Texas and committed to UT, but never saw the field. Drew Dickey and Jeremy St-Hilaire sat behind Pavia at Vandy. So, there is pretty much zero experience on this roster, but there are some reasons to believe any of them could be an option. The ex-Commodores know Altman’s philosophy, Owens probably has the most untapped upside, and Crawford knows the skill guys who are back, including top rushers Devin Spencer and Kenyon Clay, plus 5-foot-6 WR Chauncy Cobb, who had 73 catches last season.
Can Altman turn things around on offense?
While Raynor had a career-best 3,361 passing yards last season, he also led the Sun Belt in attempts with 501. While it was his top season by completion percentage, it was also his lowest output in yards per reception and just slightly better than the previous season in yards and adjusted yards per attempt. He also had his worst season from a per-carry standpoint. The Red Wolves fell from 4.2 yards per carry in the previous two seasons to 3.8 and also posted a -7 turnover margin. Altman was still playing college football at TCU just a decade ago and was actually an analyst at New Mexico State when Pavia was there, so he was instrumental in every phase of his development. The Commodores led the nation with 7.47 yards per play last season. He may very well create a much more explosive offense.
Will the Red Wolves be a good Over bet?
First-year DC Griff McCarley came in guns blazing, as the Red Wolves went from 19 sacks up to 39. Even with those negative plays, the defense still allowed over six yards per play, though 6.1 is a lot better than 6.9. The question is whether or not McCarley can find those pressures with a completely new defensive line, as just about everybody with more than one sack is playing somewhere else or ran out of eligibility. Considering that the Red Wolves were tied for sixth in sacks per game and still only forced seven interceptions and gave up a 68.4% completion percentage, I have a ton of doubts about this defense, but fully expect the offense to get better. We could see some track meets with this team.
Arkansas State 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 5.5 Wins
The better question here is whether or not you want to venture Over 6.5 wins because the vig is heavy on 5.5. The West Division is rather poor. All SBC road games are winnable, including the one against conference favorite Louisiana, and drawing Coastal Carolina and Georgia State from the East is a boost to the team’s forecast. I still think the best approach is betting Over the total on a weekly basis. If a QB emerges, the books will catch up, but if Altman tabs the right guy(s) at the outset, we can take advantage before adjustments are made. My projection is 6.36 wins.
LOUISIANA RAGIN’ CAJUNS
Every season is a big one for a head coach nowadays because boosters and fans demand results, but this feels like a really, really big one for Michael Desormeaux. The fact that he was a Ragin’ Cajun QB from 2005-08 probably adds some leeway, but Louisiana has three 6-7 seasons on his watch and one 10-4 season that ended with a 31-3 loss in the conference title game and then a 34-3 loss in the bowl game. Not only that, but the former OC under Billy Napier saw his offense drop by 4.9 PPG and 1.3 YPP from 2024 to 2025.
Times have changed, but Billy Napier took a program that went 5-7 in Mark Hudspeth’s final season and had wins vacated because of NCAA violations to 11 wins in Year 2. Napier had 33 wins in his final three seasons, as Desormeaux coached the bowl. Desormeaux has just 28 wins in his four seasons at the helm. Maybe more importantly, Napier had seven losses in Year 1 and just five after that. The Ragin’ Cajuns enter this season with the fewest portal additions in the conference, so either there’s not much money there or nobody’s willing to invest money.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
What’s on the menu for Lunch?
That would be Lunch Winfield, who led a four-game winning streak at the end of the regular season to get the Ragin’ Cajuns to a bowl game. Three of those wins were by four or fewer points and four of the team’s five conference wins fit that description. Winfield’s running prowess certainly helped, as he was a mediocre-at-best passer with an 11/7 TD/INT ratio and a 58.8% completion rate, but he did run for 667 yards and added nine rushing touchdowns. It is officially his team now after losing out to Walker Howard at the start of last season and then splitting time with Daniel Beale after Howard got hurt. Perhaps that will help, especially since OC Tim Leger can scheme the offense exclusively around him.
Does Desormeaux deserve a pass for last season?
It did take some time to finally settle on a QB, but this offense may not have had steady success regardless. This was a battered and bruised offensive line last season, as three players suffered long-term injuries early and there was constant shuffling as a result of those injuries, plus other guys missing time here and there. It is surprising that Desormeaux and the staff didn’t attack the portal more aggressively to find additional depth at that position, but because of the injuries, a lot of guys did get some important reps. It’s a big group and clearly the plan is to try to run the ball as much as possible. Louisiana only had one game with 30 pass attempts in conference play last season, so the health of the run-blockers here is paramount.
Will the disappointing defense bounce back?
Jim Salgado had a rough first year as the DC. The secondary was hit hard by absences over the course of the season, but the real concern is that nobody got into the backfield. The Ragin’ Cajuns had just 23 sacks in 13 games and tied for 112th in tackles for loss per game. Their top tacklers, Jaden Dugger and Terrance Williams, are gone after 220 stops. Dugger had nine TFL and Jordan Lawson had 10 TFL and those two combined for nine sacks. True sophomore Brent Gordon looks like a player in the secondary, but impact players seem few and far between.
Louisiana 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 7.5 Wins
I don’t know that things are working with Desormeaux here and the athletic department may have to make a big decision. He got a five-year extension after the 10-4 season, but reverted right back to what he was doing prior to that year. The complete lack of transfer portal involvement concerns me greatly, as other programs in the conference are getting better externally, while Louisiana is trying to rely on player development internally. The division is bad, and they do host Troy, so they’re lucky there, but the trajectory here worries me. My projection is 7.25 wins.
LOUISIANA-MONROE WARHAWKS
Bryant Vincent brought some instant legitimacy to the Warhawks in 2024, getting off to a 5-1 start that included upset wins over UAB, Troy, and James Madison. Unfortunately, the Warhawks couldn’t win another game to play in their first bowl since 2012. Sadly, it was a similar story in 2025, as ULM went 3-1 to open the season, but then didn’t win another game. In fairness, the Warhawks have losses to Texas, Alabama, and Northwestern, and were an underdog in all but one of the other games that they lost.
But, that, in and of itself, explains the state of this program. Even in the lackluster Sun Belt West, the team has low expectations. They’ve only been favored five times in 24 games in the Vincent era and won just 10 games over the previous four seasons before he arrived. Vincent, who has spent most of his career as an offensive coordinator, needs to find some offense, otherwise his tenure here could be coming to a close. The Warhawks have scored 21 and 16.6 PPG in his two years at the helm.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Why will the offense be different in 2026?
Vincent went out and made an outside-the-box OC hire, picking up Iowa Central Community College head coach Jesse Montalto, whose offense was fifth in the NJCAA in PPG with 38.6 and fourth in yards per game with 445.8. The QB run was a big part of ICCC’s offense, as QB Damarcus Creecy led the team with 723 yards and had 5.5 yards per carry. Incumbent QB Aidan Armenta had a 12/8 TD/INT ratio, but only managed 57 net yards on his 60 carries. Backup Landon Graves, also still with the program, had 40 pass attempts and 14 rush attempts. I fully expect dual-threat QB and former Houston Cougar Austin Carlisle to play a lot here. ULM originally offered Carlisle when he was a three-star freshman in Vincent’s first year at the school. Now he’s here and here for a reason.
Can the defense rewrite the narrative?
This defense has been bad for a long time. They haven’t had more than 25 sacks in about a decade and their last two seasons have been the only ones in recent memory with fewer than six yards per play allowed. The 2024 season was even the first in quite some time with under 30 PPG allowed. Even going from -1 to -10 in TO margin, the team only got 3.1 PPG worse on defense. Now in Year 3, DC Earnest Hill at least has his top two tacklers back and a handful of others who played a good amount, plus JUCO transfers. With an offense expected to run with some more tempo, the defense is going to need some help from them to stay off the field. Similarly, the new-look offense could use more than nine takeaways from the D.
Should we play on ULM early and fade them late?
Maybe. Like I said, they started 3-1 last season and then lost every game. They started 5-1 in 2024 and then lost every game. They started 2-0 in 2023, including an outright upset win over Army, and then lost 10 in a row. I’m not sure if it’s something about going down to Monroe early in the season when it’s still hot and humid or what, but the team plays its best football in September and early October before falling off the face of the earth. Depth is definitely a factor, but maybe Vincent and the coaching staff don’t adjust well when other teams have them on film.
Louisiana-Monroe 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 3.5 Wins
It is an encouraging development that Vincent has decided to give up the OC role so that he can better oversee the program. Too many young and first-time head coaches put a lot on their plates and aren’t able to properly manage the other tasks within the program. This offense should create more explosive plays and also provide a different look for conference opponents. But, if the offense doesn’t click, the defense will be under heavy fire and that is a huge worry. My projections call for exactly 3.00 wins and have the Warhawks an underdog in every game.
LOUISIANA TECH BULLDOGS
On the heels of their best season since 2019, the Bulldogs are now in the Sun Belt. Sonny Cumbie’s crew went 8-5 last season, capped off by a win over new conference foe Coastal Carolina in the Independence Bowl. Cumbie won 11 games in his first three seasons combined before all the pieces came together last season. The offense finally carried its weight to help out a defense that was very strong for the second straight season, even with a defensive coordinator change.
But, now the Rustonites are in a tougher conference. Conference USA is a poor league and the Bulldogs went 5-3 with two losses by just a point. The West Division is the weaker of the two in the Sun Belt, but it is an objectively stronger conference on the whole and Baylor joins LSU on the non-conference schedule. With notable personnel losses and defensive regression signs, it might be a bad time to switch conferences.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Is the secondary the primary concern on defense?
Personally, I find the entire defense a concern, but this is going to be a new group of defensive backs. Safety Jakari Foster was one of Conference USA’s best players and defensive backs Cedric Woods and Jhamal Shelby had 17 combined pass breakups. But, those aren’t the only key departures on D. The team’s three leading tacklers were all stat sheet fillers. Collectively, Jacob Fields, Mekhi Mason, and Sifa Leota had over 220 tackles, 7.5 sacks, more than 20 tackles for loss, and 16 pass breakups. The Bulldogs defense actually allowed fewer points per game (20.8 to 21) with first-year DC Luke Olsen, but allowed 0.6 more yards per carry, 67 more passing yards per game, and 0.7 more yards per play. Even without the roster attrition, regression was likely.
Should we buy stock in the offense?
The quarterbacks collectively posted an 8/9 TD/INT ratio last season, but the team did have a completion percentage over 62%. Without Trey Kukuk’s running ability, things could have gone very differently, as he had more interceptions than touchdowns, but managed better than six yards per carry. The Bulldogs had almost 11 yards per carry against Sam Houston, 5.9 YPC against Liberty, and 7.6 YPC against Missouri State. That would be 353 rushing yards against New Mexico State, 426 against Sam Houston, 319 against Liberty, and 388 against Missouri State. That was 1,486 of their 2,540 rushing yards, which means that they had just 1,054 yards across the other nine games. Now they head to a better conference.
How big of a difference is being in the Sun Belt?
Using Jeff Sagarin’s end-of-season average ratings, Conference USA was 13th at 55.84. The Sun Belt East Division was ninth at 62.38 and the West Division was 10th at 59.22. James Madison does really skew the numbers, but even the West Division outpaces the entirety of Conference USA. In looking at my power ratings for this season, my average PR for the Sun Belt minus Louisiana Tech is 55.2. My average PR for Conference USA is 52.3. My guess is that the average CFB fan and bettor won’t think much of it. Even looking just at the SB West, my average PR is 53.6, and that’s the weaker side by far.
Louisiana Tech 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 5.5 Wins
Plus money on this one with a team that had 3, 3, and 5 regular-season wins for Cumbie before last season’s 7-5 mark. I’m high on Georgia Southern and Old Dominion, the two teams from the East Division that the Bulldogs have to deal with. My projection is 5.76 wins, but this defense is very ripe for regression. With a lot of closely-lined games, that’s a prominent factor in my handicapping. I only have LT favored by more than two points three times (NW State, UL Monroe, Southern Miss).
SOUTH ALABAMA JAGUARS
Let’s call this season the rubber match for Major Applewhite. Going 7-6 in Year 1 was a win, especially with 6.8 yards per play, a full yard per play better than opponents, and 34.4 PPG. Going 4-8 in Year 2 was a major disappointment, with just 5.4 YPP on offense and 26.5 PPG, while the defense regressed in several key areas. By no means do I think that Applewhite’s job is in jeopardy with another poor showing, but he knows things need to get better. That’s why he’s going to serve as his own OC and hired football lifer Todd Orlando to fix the defense.
To be fair to Applewhite, he thought his starting QB Gio Lopez was coming back, but North Carolina showed up with a bag after spring practices. This season, Applewhite doesn’t have that problem with Bishop Davenport back, but he does have to figure out who will replace 1,000-yard rusher Kentrell Bullock and WR Devin Voisin, who had 67 catches, 27 more than anybody else. While the Jags have the fourth-ranked freshman class per 247Sports, they also have the second-worst transfer portal class.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Does Bishop’s Bunch improve on offense?
OC Rob Ezell left for the same position at Wake Forest following a very successful 2024 season. Not only did the Jaguars have 6.8 YPP, but they also surrendered just 17 sacks. Paul Petrino was not able to keep up those numbers, though he did get a raw deal with Lopez leaving. In any event, Davenport got to prep all summer long knowing that it’s his team. He had a 68% completion rate, as the Jaguars were 12th in the nation in that department. He only had a 12/6 TD/INT ratio, as the team was reliant on the run with Bullock. With Bullock gone, Davenport may be asked to throw more and run more, as he had 116 carries last season, but just for 326 yards. With Applewhite calling the shots, my answer to this question is ‘Yes’.
Can the skill guys make up for the losses of Bullock and Voisin?
In order to achieve the above, this is a big part of the equation. Keenan Phillips had 4.8 yards per carry over 126 attempts and PJ Martin had 5.4 yards per carry. Anthony Eager was second with 40 catches, but only had 339 yards. Some game-breakers need to step forward, especially at WR, where I’m very surprised that the Jaguars didn’t pursue portal options with more fervor. There isn’t a lot of size at WR, but Applewhite will probably run with more tempo to use that group’s speed and get the ball out quickly into space. Under Petrino, South Alabama was 88th in percentage of plays of 7+ yards and 124th in percentage of plays of 10+ yards per BCF Toys. Under Ezell, they were 24th in 7+ yards and 54th in 10+ yards. That’s what Applewhite is looking for.
What is our situation, Dad?
I’m sorry; it has nothing to do with football, but anytime I see the name Todd, all I can think of is Todd Cleary from Wedding Crashers. Todd Orlando steps into something of a mess. Even the Jaguars defense back in 2024 allowed 5.8 YPP, even though they only allowed 25.2 PPG. That was still a big drop from the previous two seasons when Kane Wommack was still the head coach. I’m sure Orlando asked Applewhite what he had to work with and it’s not much, as the top four tacklers are gone, though nobody with 2+ sacks because nobody on the team had 2+ sacks. The biggest loss by far is CB Nehemiah Chandler, who is now at Florida State. This is a completely rebuilt defense with limited portal help.
South Alabama 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 5.5 Wins
I’m trusting my numbers here by swaying to the Under, as my projection is for 5.12 wins, but this is as high-variance of a team as you’ll see in the Sun Belt. If the offense does increase the tempo and create explosives, it’s a different story, but that could also negatively impact a team that is very short on depth and very green in the secondary. Drawing Marshall and App State from the East is one of the tougher draws as well.
SOUTHERN MISS GOLDEN EAGLES
Southern Miss caught lightning in a bottle when they were able to enjoy one season with Charles Huff at the helm, as he brought a bunch of Marshall players with him and took the Golden Eagles to a bowl game on the heels of a disastrous 1-11 season. Unfortunately, Huff didn’t last long in Hattiesburg, as he is now coaching Memphis. Blake Anderson was on staff as the OC and simply got elevated to the head coach position, his second such post in the Sun Belt.
Anderson was fired from Utah State for allegations that he improperly reported instances of sexual misconduct per university rules in a case that also got the deputy athletic director fired. On Anderson’s watch, the offense improved by 13.5 PPG and a full yard per play, so the administration at Southern Miss felt comfortable moving him up despite his recent misgivings, even though all but one of those offensive pieces are gone and the defense has essentially one returning player.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Is there a true QB1 on the roster?
Anderson enters a tough spot here because a lot of players went to Memphis with Huff or were guys that simply wanted to play their final season of college football with Huff. There’s basically no returning production on the roster and that’s true at the QB position. Landry Lyddy did stick around after throwing for 406 yards with a 2/3 TD/INT ratio and 12 yards on six carries. Given that Braylon Braxton had a 24/8 TD/INT ratio with over 3,000 passing yards, maybe Lyddy was just stuck behind him. Either way, Anderson brought in Ethan Hampton from Illinois. He started a few games at Northern Illinois, but barely saw the field with the Illini. John White played in 2024, but not last year. The Golden Eagles threw for 266 yards last season, the most for them since 2019. Don’t expect anything like that again.
Should we fear the unknown?
The Golden Eagles had 20 players with at least 20 tackles last season. Nineteen of them are playing somewhere else or not at all. This is a hodgepodge of transfers and guys who stuck around knowing that starting jobs were going to be available. Similarly, there were nine players with at least 15 receptions and every single one of them is outside of the program. A 7-6 season after going 1-11 was a massive achievement, but this was a team that was just +18 in point differential, +0.3 in YPP, got outgained on a per-carry basis, and really benefitted from a +14 turnover margin. To only be +18 in points with that kind of TO margin is hard to believe. Also, the Golden Eagles lost twice in favorite roles over the final three games and also lost as a pick ‘em and +1. I’m not saying this team will be better. I’m saying last year’s team wasn’t that great.
But, should we fear this unknown?
The unknown in question here is DC Joe Bolden, who has never held that position before. He’s held a variety of roles, serving as special teams coordinator here last season. He played at Michigan, was a grad assistant there, actually coached at Ohio State, and also had stops at Nevada and Tulsa. He hasn’t stayed long at any stop. I’m not sure what to make of that, except feel sorry for his wife and four kids. A ton of JUCOs and FCS transfers with a first-time DC has serious “recipe for disaster” potential.
Southern Miss 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Under 3.5 Wins
While my projection is on the plus side of this at 3.86, the -130 juice puts me pretty in line with the market. The truth is that I only have Southern Miss favored twice, with a very tepid favorite role at UL Monroe on Halloween as the only FBS game laying a number. Drawing James Madison and Old Dominion from the East is as brutal as it gets. This isn’t a bet, but this is very clearly a transitional season in Hattiesburg.
TROY TROJANS
One of the nation’s top coaching jobs came from Gerad Parker, who captained a four-win improvement at Troy despite a bunch of cluster injuries on the offensive line and at the quarterback position. While 8-6 doesn’t stand out all that much, especially after Jon Sumrall went 23-5 over two seasons before heading to Tulane, it is a great sign for the future of this program. Many weren’t sure about the hire of Parker, who was the OC at Notre Dame, but was an attractive candidate to Troy because he was the OC at West Virginia under former Trojans head coach Neal Brown.
The last two seasons are kind of tough to gauge. The 4-8 start to Parker’s tenure came with a mass exodus of talent post-Sumrall, but the Trojans did win three of their last four games to end on something of a high note. Last season, the Trojans allowed 59 sacks and put up just 2.8 yards per carry with their worst offensive season since the Larry Blakeney era, but found ways to win games. That includes a 6-3 conference record despite getting outgained by nearly a full yard per play. Usually that kind of good fortune regresses to the mean, but the never-ending swarm of injury bugs last season isn’t a guarantee to come back this season.
Three Burning Questions for the 2026 Season
Can the Trojans provide some protection?
One way to avoid unwanted consequences is to use protection. If you want your quarterback to stay healthy, perhaps blocking for him makes some sense. I had to do a triple take to make sure that 59 wasn’t a typo in the sack department for Troy. It wasn’t. The Trojans allowed seven more sacks than the next closest team. Tucker Kilcrease even had 116 carries and Goose Crowder had 57, so there could have been even more. A couple starters are back on the offensive line, not that that’s necessarily a good thing, and the transfer portal was heavily-utilized to fill out the rest. I find it incredible that Troy was exactly even in turnover margin and the QBs had a 20/11 TD/INT ratio while being under duress on seemingly every dropback.
Who is QB1?
Kilcrease and Crowder must be really good friends. Or they really love the school. Either way, it is really rare to see this sort of dynamic in college football nowadays with how easy it is to transfer. Both guys sat behind Matthew Caldwell in 2024 and went into 2025 as 1a and 1b, with them flipping spots depending on the day. Crowder won the starting gig, but got hurt in the third game. When he came back, Kilcrease still got the start against Old Dominion and then he got hurt, as Crowder finished out the season. Based on the betting market action when Crowder got hurt and Kilcrease took over, the sentiment was that Kilcrease was a clear downgrade. There are also quite a few players from East Mississippi CC on this roster now, including 6-foot-5 QB Rodge Waldrop. I’m very curious to see how this all plays out.
Is improvement coming on both sides of the ball?
New OC Adam Austin led a Tarleton offense that had five 50-burgers last season and was the highest PPG team at the FCS level and second to North Texas in all of Division I. DC Dontae Wright led some nice year over year improvements, going from 28.4 PPG in 2024 to 23.9 PPG last season, plus the team shaved more than 6% off of their completion percentage against, had 18 more sacks, and allowed 0.4 fewer yards per play. Unfortunately, pretty much all of his top defensive players are gone. One who isn’t is Donnie Smith, who had 11 sacks. Based on the improvement from 2024 to 2025, I’m convinced this staff is adept at finding talent in the portal.
Troy 2026 Season Win Total Pick – Over 6.5 Wins
This is a juicy one, but I consider it a bet. I also like Over 7.5 on an alt win total. My projection is 6.86 wins, but there are multiple toss-up games on the slate for the Trojans that I think they can win. I’m also down on Louisiana and some other teams that they face in closely-lined games. Parker got this team to eight wins last season with a dumpster fire of burning tires on the offensive line and two injured QBs. The roster is better now and I can’t imagine the health luck is that bad again.
