Texas vs. Arizona State

The Texas Longhorns face Arizona State in the Peach Bowl as the largest favorite of the weekend in the College Football Playoff. The Longhorns are also one of three lower seeded teams favored to win in the quarterfinals.

Arizona State enters the CFP as the best cover team in the country. The Sun Devils are 11-2 ATS on the season with a +11.3 spread differential. But, this will be the program’s second game without receiver Jordyn Tyson, who leads the team in receptions (75), receiving yards (1,101) and receiving touchdowns (10). Arizona State fared well without Tyson in the Big 12 Championship Game, but the Peach Bowl will be a different test.

 

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Let’s break it all down and see if there’s a good bet to be made.

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Peach Bowl: Texas Longhorns (-13.5, 52) vs. Arizona State Sun Devils

How To Watch The Peach Bowl

When: Wednesday, January 1st, 1:00 p.m. ET

How: ESPN

Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

Without Tyson in the lineup Arizona State will be heavily reliant on running back Cam Skattebo. The Sun Devils’ leading rusher, Skattebo has amassed 2,074 total yards from scrimmage on 300 touches this season. Skattebo is mostly a threat on the ground – he only averaged 3.1 receptions per game – but he faces a defense which is among the best in the country.

Texas’ defensive front is arguably the best in the CFP field. It ranks seventh in the country in EPA allowed per rush and ninth in EPA allowed on early downs. In more traditional metrics, the Longhorns are eighth in yards allowed per carry (3.1) and ninth in rush yards allowed per game (104.5). With Tyson out of the picture, this front will be able to hone in on Skattebo and it will force redshirt freshman quarterback Sam Leavitt to win the game without his top target.

On the other end, the Sun Devils will need to contend with a running game that is among the best in the country.

The Longhorns have averaged 4.6 yards per carry and 173.5 yards per game on the ground this season. In advanced metrics, they rank ninth in EPA per rush. The Sun Devils were one of the best run defenses in the country in their own right, having allowed 3.8 yards per carry and 117.8 yards per game. However, there is a question as to how this front seven stacks up against one of the best offensive lines in the country. Texas also might have right tackle Cam Williams on the field in this contest, as it seems his knee injury is not as serious as previously thought.

The elephant in the room for the favorites in this matchup is the play of quarterback Quinn Ewers. Many were calling for Ewers to be benched as the Longhorns entered the first round meeting with Clemson. Ewers played well for Texas. He completed 70.8% of his passes for 202 yards with one touchdown and an interception that was not his fault. Having said that, Ewers committed five turnover-worthy plays in consecutive games against Texas A&M and Georgia to end the season, and if he puts the ball in danger once more, Texas could be ripe for an upset.

The betting market initially moved in favor of the Longhorns when this number was first posted, but there was buyback on the Sun Devils at +14 a few days later. Texas is now laying 13.5 with the total at 52 consensus.

It is not a surprise that the best cover team in the country is getting support at the window on a key number, but the matchup does not seem to bode well for Arizona State. Texas will be hyper-focused on stacking the box against Skattebo here. It will mean that a redshirt freshman will need to make plays with his arm against one of the best defenses in the country, without his top target. With the number under the key number of 14 the Longhorns are the play here.

Pick: Texas (-13.5)

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