Rice Owls:
Not that it’s relevant to anything, but I found it very interesting last season that when Rice and Florida Atlantic joined Temple in the AAC, the conference had all of the FBS Owls. That isn’t the case now with Kennesaw State. But, it is a fun trivia nugget!
This team hasn’t won a bowl game since 2014, despite consecutive bowl appearances against Sun Belt teams in 2022 and 2023. Head coach Mike Bloomgren is 22-46 over six seasons, as Rice made a bowl at 5-8 in 2022 due to their APR scores. If the trend line holds, the Owls will win seven games this season, after going 4-8, 5-8, 6-7 over the last three seasons.
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Offense
A transfer QB once again holds the keys to the offense. It will be E.J. Warner this time, the son of Kurt, in case y’all want to feel old. It will actually be Warner’s third season as a starter, as he swapped colors, but kept the mascot with his transfer from Temple. He actually had 41 TD passes and threw for over 6,000 yards for some pretty bad Temple teams.
The loss of WR Luke McCaffrey is a big deal here, as he had 13 of the team’s 29 receiving touchdowns and a team-high 992 yards. RB Dean Connors was the second-leading receiver with 403 yards, including 80 on one of his 43 catches. Connors also ran for 6.4 yards per carry. So, he’s a fine player, but the team needs a WR1 to emerge in hopes of finishing around the middle of the pack in yards per play again.
Defense
The offense was 63rd in YPP and the defense was 61st, so the 6-7 record makes a ton of sense for a team that was very average. However, there are some clear positive regression signs. This was a team that made a bowl despite a -14 turnover margin. The defense only forced 12 takeaways and only three teams had fewer interceptions.
Given the lack of turnovers, Rice finishing 83rd in scoring defense isn’t all that bad. A lot of returnees are back, which means a lot of returning production, but the defense is going to have to find a way to generate more pressure (23 sacks) and more takeaways.
Outlook
The Rice offense has gotten better since OC Marques Tuiasosopo was hired prior to the 2021 season and this is an experienced defense. Rice does appear to be trending upward after a lot of seasons spinning in the mud. My numbers do call for bowl eligibility at 6.37 wins, but the vig on Over 6.5 is cost-prohibitive and would cause me to lean more towards 6-6 than 7-5.
Pick: Under 6.5 Wins
