San Diego State Aztecs:
Sean Lewis takes over the program after a tumultuous season in Boulder in which he was demoted from play-calling duties by Deion Sanders. Lewis – the former Kent State head coach – is known for his up-tempo offense which leans on its passing attack. His style will be a shock to the system for an Aztec program which has known ground-and-pound offense with little production from the quarterback position.
Offense
The starter at quarterback is unknown as we head into the fall. Sophomore AJ Duffy was brought in from Florida State, and he is expected to compete with true freshman Danny O’Neil, a former three-star recruit out of Indianapolis. Two others – Javance Tupou’ata-Johnson and Kyle Crum – are expected to have a chance to win the job as well.
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Regardless of who wins the job, wide receiver will be key in this passing attack. Two of the top three receivers from last season departed, but Lewis rebuilt the receiver room in the portal. Four transfers came in from different programs, and all are more suited for Lewis’ offense. The offensive line and running back rooms are mostly intact. All four leading rushers from last season return and three of the five starting linemen are back as well.
Bettors can project what the Aztecs will look like on offense by looking back on Lewis’ previous stops. San Diego State will likely be up-tempo with a dynamic passing attack. Lewis also had a 1,200-yard rusher in his last two seasons at Kent State, so expect big things from the starter – likely Marquez Cooper who transferred in and played under Lewis.
Defense
This figures to be the unit which struggles the most in Lewis’ first season at the helm. Only four starters return from last season, and Lewis also brought in a new defensive coordinator: Eric Schmidt who was Washington’s defensive ends coach and special teams coordinator last season. SDSU will be transitioning from the 3-3-5 scheme it has run to a 4-2-5 formation under Schmidt.
Nose tackle Tupu Alualu will be playing a new position, but he is still a Third Team All-Mountain West defender. He will also likely be the Aztecs’ best defender heading into the season, as most of the losses are on the backend of the unit.
Having said that, this group can’t be much worse than last season. SDSU finished 97th in opponent EPA per play in 2023. They allowed 4.9 yards per carry and 6.1 yards per play. As a result, the team was 112th in opponent EPA per rush. The changes are numerous, but under Schmidt’s new scheme this unit could actually be much better.
Outlook
With so much change it is hard to predict an outcome, but the schedule does make the projection a bit easier. SDSU avoids Fresno State in its conference schedule, but it must make trips to Boise State, Wyoming and UNLV. Non-conference opponents include Oregon State and Washington State at home, and road trips to Central Michigan and Cal. There are some things to like about this roster, but the challenging schedule likely leads to another disappointing season in San Diego.
Pick: Under 5.5 Wins
