San Jose State Spartans:
After a year off Ken Niumatalolo has returned to coaching, but on the opposite coast of his old stomping ground in Annapolis. San Jose State is undergoing a massive rebuild after an offseason that saw its head coach and 14 starters depart in some fashion or another. Niumatalolo is in for a massive undertaking at a school not known for attracting talent.
Offense
Niumatalolo ran the option at Navy out of necessity. Those expecting it in San Jose will be sorely disappointed, as the Spartans will run the “Spread and Shred” offense under coordinator Craig Stutzmann.
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The best player on offense is wide receiver Nick Nash. The one-time quarterback returns after a strong season in which he caught 48 balls for 728 yards and eight touchdowns. SJSU’s next leading receiver is Malakhi Miller who had just 24 receptions for 290 yards and a touchdown. Justin Lockhart was a 500-yard receiver in 2022 and returns after a season lost to injury.
At quarterback, Niumatalolo will choose between Washington State transfer Emmett Brown or Walker Eget, a junior who appeared in a game for Western Michigan three years ago. The position is a complete unknown, and the Spartans will be lucky to get above average play from the group this season.
SJSU will have a starter return along the offensive line, but the position is being entirely rebuilt. Some FCS transfers are expected to compete for starting jobs across the unit. At running back, the top rushers from last season are gone. In their place is likely Floyd Chalk, a transfer from Grambling.
Defense
Through all of the upheaval, defensive coordinator Derrick Odum returns for his eighth season. Odum has four starters back on this unit, so while there is continuity, much should not be expected from this group. SJSU finished 93rd in opponent EPA per play and 130th in opponent EPA per rush last season. Similar output should be expected this season.
Soane Toia is a former First Team All-Mountain West defensive lineman, but he received a 57.1 defensive grade from PFF. Fourth Team All-Mountain West linebacker Jordan Pollard is back along the front seven, and three players with starting experience return in the secondary. The Spartans finished 43rd in the country in opponent EPA per dropback, so the defensive backfield could be a strength once more this season.
Outlook
It’s not great. Nuimatalolo is a professional, and he will have his players ready every time they step onto the field. However, this team is devoid of talent. The Spartans take on the top three teams on the oddsboard to win the conference – Boise State, Fresno State and UNLV – and they get Air Force and Colorado State as well. Sacramento State, Kennesaw State and Nevada are on the schedule, but it’s hard to go Over five wins here.
Pick: Under 5 Wins
