SEC
This originally appeared in our 2025 VSiN College Football Betting Guide released on Tuesday, August 5. Become a VSiN Pro Subscriber and get our betting guides as part of your subscription.
It’s probably just a little dry spell and not yet a drought, but the SEC failed to produce the national champion the past two years. For a conference that had won four titles in a row — LSU in 2019, Alabama in 2020 and Georgia in 2021 and 2022 — being shut out for a couple of years should be humbling. The hated Big Ten stepped up to steal the thunder, with Michigan winning it all in 2023, followed by Ohio State. Still, the SEC is in position to reclaim its college football dominance as Texas, Alabama, Georgia and LSU will be title contenders this season. The Longhorns boast quarterback Arch Manning, the most hyped player in the nation. The conference will feature what could be the top three quarterback prospects in next year’s NFL Draft in Manning, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier and South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers.
The SEC is loaded with as many as 10 to 12 teams worthy of Top 25 rankings, star quarterbacks and coaches on the hot seat. Nick Saban was the definition of a tough act to follow, and Kalen DeBoer didn’t win many friends at Alabama with a 9-4 debut. DeBoer is a good bet to bounce back, but what about Hugh Freeze at Auburn, Brent Venables at Oklahoma, Billy Napier at Florida, Sam Pittman at Arkansas and Mark Stoops at Kentucky?
This conference’s strength will get tested immediately in a pair of Aug. 30 heavyweight fights — Texas at Ohio State, and LSU at Clemson. The biggest SEC games to circle on the schedule are Alabama at Georgia (Sept. 27), LSU at Alabama (Nov. 8) and Texas at Georgia (Nov. 15). Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart is happy to welcome the Crimson Tide and Longhorns between the hedges in Athens.
Circa Sports posts Georgia and Texas as +300 co-favorites to win the conference, followed by Alabama (+475) and LSU (+700). At DraftKings, the Longhorns are the second choice (+550) behind national championship favorite Ohio State (+500), and Manning is the +650 Heisman Trophy favorite.
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Alabama Crimson Tide
One month into his first season in Tuscaloosa, Kalen DeBoer was a conquering hero. His 4-0 start was highlighted by a thrilling 41-34 victory over Georgia. However, the Crimson Tide dropped two of the next three games, falling on the road to Vanderbilt and Tennessee, and the honeymoon was over. Another ugly loss at Oklahoma and a disgraceful bowl effort against a Michigan team with a skeleton crew sealed DeBoer’s debut year as a big disappointment. A 9-4 finish is fine for most programs, but it’s unacceptable at Alabama. DeBoer is a good bet to bounce back. He’s a great coach with a proven track record. It never was going to be easy to follow Nick Saban.
Offense
DeBoer’s reputation as an offensive innovator took a hit last season in the low-scoring losses to Tennessee, Oklahoma and Michigan. His offensive coordinator at Washington, Ryan Grubb, did not follow him to Alabama and instead went to the NFL. After one year with the Seahawks, Grubb is back with DeBoer. The OC change is a major plus, and a new quarterback might also help. Former quarterback Jalen Milroe was a much better athlete than a passer, but Milroe is now an NFL project, and former five-star recruit Ty Simpson is expected to take over the starting job. Simpson will trigger a vertical passing attack that takes advantage of star wideout Ryan Williams, who had a sensational 177-yard game against Georgia yet finished the season with only 48 receptions for 865 yards. Simpson, Williams and running back Jam Miller are set up for success. Parker Brailsford, Kadyn Proctor and Jaeden Roberts anchor one of the nation’s elite lines.
Defense
Despite surrendering 40 points to Vanderbilt in an embarrassing upset, the Tide ranked No. 10 in scoring defense (17.4 ppg). Second-year coordinator Kane Wommack has seven starters returning and gets an infusion of transfer talent. Four seniors — end LT Overton, tackle Tim Keenan and linebackers Deontae Lawson and Justin Jefferson — lead the front and four starters are back in the secondary. The talent is there for this unit to be as strong as some of Saban’s defenses.
Outlook
It has been a long time since this was said, but Alabama might be underrated. Simpson, who has attempted only 50 passes in three years as a backup, has a shot to develop into a star in Grubb’s new offense. The defense has the potential to be great. DeBoer and the players who experienced the lows of last season will be highly motivated. The Tide must navigate treacherous trips to Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina and Auburn to return to the playoffs after being relegated to the ReliaQuest Bowl. It’s a tough call at 9.5 wins, yet the Over price of -115 is reasonable.
Pick: Over 9.5
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Arkansas Razorbacks
As sixth-year coach Sam Pittman fights for his coaching life in Fayetteville, no prognosticators are picking Arkansas to finish in the top half of the league. But Pittman is showing a pulse, mostly due to offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino and quarterback Taylen Green. The Razorbacks were really good on offense a year ago, which is why they finished 7-6 with a Liberty Bowl win, and should be better. The defense could be a problem, and the schedule certainly will be more problematic. Remember the scene in 2012 when a banged-up Petrino appeared in public with bruises on his face while wearing a neck brace? The Razorbacks could look like that in November.
Offense
Green, a former Boise State transfer, is expected to blossom in Petrino’s offense. Last year, he passed for 3,154 yards and 15 touchdowns with nine interceptions while running for 602 yards and eight touchdowns. Green showed his potential in the bowl game by passing for 341 yards and two touchdowns and running for 81 yards in the 39-26 victory over Texas Tech, which allowed 573 total yards. Petrino is an oddball, but his offensive mind is always sharp. Arkansas ranked 10th in total offense (459.5 yards per game) and 44th in scoring (30.9 ppg). The line is being rebuilt with the help of transfers, and the same is true of the receiver crew. The ground attack appears promising, led by Green and running backs Braylen Russell, Rodney Hill and Mike Washington Jr., an impressive transfer from New Mexico State.
Defense
The Razorbacks will need to win some shootouts because last year’s below-average defense brings back only three starters. Senior tackle Cameron Ball anchors the front, and senior linebackers Stephen Dix and Xavian Sorey represent the strength of the unit. Arkansas was inconsistent last season, allowing 63 points to Mississippi yet holding Texas to 20 and limiting Auburn and Tennessee to 14 points apiece. Pittman brought in several transfers, so improvement will depend on how many pan out.
Outlook
Arkansas will start 2-0 before hitting a four-game stretch (at Ole Miss, at Memphis, Notre Dame, at Tennessee) that will leave Pittman sleepless and maybe winless. His job will be on the line. The Razorbacks finish with road trips to LSU and Texas prior to hosting Missouri in the finale. With 58 new players, including 31 transfers, on the roster, this is a dice roll. A high-scoring offense is the only guarantee for Arkansas.
Pick: Under 5.5
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Auburn Tigers
When the Auburn coaching job opened two years ago, some influential people around the program lobbied for Deion Sanders. The Tigers instead hired Hugh Freeze, who has so far flopped with an 11-14 record. Freeze has recruited well, so there is hope on the horizon. The recruit getting the most hype is transfer quarterback Jackson Arnold from Oklahoma. Freeze is on a hot seat and his third year needs to produce a winning record. The outlook is fairly optimistic, starting with the Arnold addition.
Offense
Freeze’s offense fell short last season, ranking 71st in scoring and sinking to depressing depths in a 17-7 home loss to Vanderbilt. Arnold was hailed as a big-time recruit at Oklahoma, but he never fully developed and was inconsistent. A part-time starter, Arnold passed for 1,421 yards and 12 touchdowns with three interceptions while running for 444 yards. He did direct the Sooners to an upset of Alabama before announcing transfer plans. The depth at the position is reassuring if Arnold doesn’t get the job done. The backups are Stanford transfer Ashton Daniels and freshman Deuce Knight, a top-rated recruit. Cam Coleman returns after making eight touchdown catches as a freshman, and Georgia Tech transfer Eric Singleton is expected to make a major impact at receiver. The line should be a strength and the running attack could improve, although leading rusher Jarquez Hunter was drafted by the Rams.
Defense
Junior end Keldrick Faulk, who had seven sacks last year and has NFL first-round potential, is the only returning starter in the front seven. Four starters return in the secondary, but this is an inexperienced unit with several new faces and it’s a reason to be skeptical about Auburn’s ability to win big games. The defense was solid last season, ranking 28th in scoring (21.3 ppg), but seems likely to decline.
Outlook
Auburn won five games a year ago, and that win total is even less impressive when considering Alabama A&M, New Mexico, UL Monroe and Kentucky were four of the victims. Freeze must start fast against Baylor, Ball State and South Alabama because the next three games (at Oklahoma, at Texas A&M, Georgia) will see the Tigers in the underdog role. Arnold’s homecoming game against the Sooners on Sept. 20 could be pivotal. All things considered, the schedule is not bad because Texas, LSU, South Carolina and Florida are excluded and the Tigers will get Alabama and Georgia at Jordan-Hare Stadium. The win total is 7.5 at DraftKings and 8 at Circa Sports.
Pick: Under 8
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Florida Gators
Billy Napier was a dubious hire at Florida, something that was evident from the start. While he was successful at Louisiana, he never was a game-management genius, and the margin for error in the SEC is extremely slim. “Sun Belt Billy” has been out of his league, going 19-19 in three years. It got ugly in last year’s opener when the Gators were embarrassed 41-17 by Miami in Gainesville, and Napier nearly got into a scuffle with the team mascot, Albert the Alligator. His job was on the line and eventually saved by the emergence of freshman quarterback DJ Lagway and a four-game win streak to finish the season. Napier’s 8-5 record was more than respectable, but now he needs some luck to go his way because the schedule is full of speed traps on the road.
Offense
Lagway, who replaced injured veteran Graham Mertz, started seven games and displayed exciting athletic ability. After throwing for 12 touchdowns with nine interceptions, the sophomore must improve as a passer, though a tricky issue has surfaced. Lagway did not throw much in the spring and summer because of a shoulder injury that could be a big deal if it lingers. Louisville transfer Harrison Bailey is the backup. The best news is the line brings back four high-quality starters. Leading rusher Jadan Baugh also returns, and the receiver group looks promising with Eugene Wilson, five-star freshman Dallas Wilson and UCLA transfer J. Michael Sturdivant.
Defense
The Gators were gashed for 27.3 ppg in last season’s first four games. The defense displayed dramatic improvement after that, allowing 19 ppg in the final nine games and that stretch included blowout losses to Georgia (34-20) and Texas (49-17). Senior end Tyreak Sapp, tackle Caleb Banks and safety Bryce Thornton will lead a unit that welcomes several talented recruits.
Outlook
Florida faces a nightmare three-game gauntlet from mid-September to early October with back-to-back trips to LSU and Miami prior to a home date with Texas. The Gators later leave the Swamp to play Texas A&M, Georgia and Mississippi. It’s not safe to assume Lagway’s shoulder will stay strong, so be careful with this team. If healthy, Lagway could be sensational. The recruiting class ranked in the nation’s top 10 and the talent level in the program is far more impressive. However, Napier will not have a coaching edge in many matchups. A seven-win season and a bowl game should be deemed a success, even if Albert the Alligator demands more.
Pick: Under 7.5
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Georgia Bulldogs
A program that won back-to-back national championships in 2021 and 2022 is not in decline. As a matter of fact, Georgia is the reigning SEC champion, thanks to a pair of victories over Texas last season. The Bulldogs don’t boast a quarterback who’s a top NFL prospect, but they have plenty of firepower to make another deep postseason run. Much will depend on the growth of Gunner Stockton, who’s pulling the trigger on the offense. Georgia coach Kirby Smart’s 53-5 record over the past four years is the best in college football. This is a young team, but it’s still a Top 10 team.
Offense
Stockton stepped in for an injured Carson Beck during the SEC title game and helped the Bulldogs beat the Longhorns 22-19. He passed for 234 yards in a playoff loss to Notre Dame, doing enough to win the job and show he can be the guy. Beck took the money and ran to Miami, but he’s not really going to be missed. The Stockton-led offense should be better. Sophomore running back Nate Frazier is a rising star, and USC transfer Zachariah Branch is a big-play receiver with speed to burn. The line lost four starters and could be a concern, but it has the makings of a big, physical line that will help the Bulldogs improve the conference’s 15th-ranked rushing attack.
Defense
Georgia annually loses stars to the NFL and reloads. The names change, yet the story remains the same. Smart is a lot like Nick Saban in that you don’t worry about the defense he will put on the field. While first-round picks Mykel Williams, Jalon Walker and Malaki Starks are gone, the replacements can play at a high level. The new leaders will be safety KJ Bolden, nose tackle Christen Miller, linebacker CJ Allen and corners Daylen Everette and Daniel Harris.
Outlook
Smart has praised himself and his staff for going 11-3 against a brutal schedule last year. The Bulldogs were 1-2 in road games against Alabama, Mississippi and Texas, and this time all three of those teams will be coming to Georgia. The schedule is much more favorable. Smart hit the kitchen and cooked up three nonconference cupcakes by adding Austin Peay, Charlotte and Marshall. Stockton still is somewhat of a mystery, and if the junior quarterback is good, Georgia could be great. This team probably will win either nine or 10 games in the regular season, though 10 seems to be the ceiling. While it’s smart to be cautiously optimistic with a roster that is inexperienced, Smart can win big with this schedule.
Pick: Over 9.5
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Kentucky Wildcats
In 12 years at Kentucky, Mark Stoops has established himself as the program’s all-time winningest coach with a 77-73 record. Still, he was a big loser last season, going 4-8 with a 1-7 mark in conference play. There were two positives — the Wildcats didn’t finish last in the 16-team league (Mississippi State went 0-8) and their one SEC win was a major upset that basically knocked Mississippi out of College Football Playoff contention. Kentucky’s other three victories were over lightweights Murray State, Ohio and Southern Miss. Stoops’ seat is getting hot. He has three more cupcakes on his nonconference schedule, but the league schedule is tougher than a $2 steak and it appears Stoops will be starving for wins.
Offense
Zach Calzada, a transfer from Incarnate Word and Texas A&M, is expected to win the quarterback job in his seventh college season. Kentucky used three quarterbacks who combined for 15 touchdown passes and 16 interceptions last season. Calzada should be an upgrade, but if he falters, the Wildcats could turn to highly-touted redshirt freshman Cutter Boley. The line was a wreck last season and might not be much better with a patchwork group of transfers. Stoops needs to hit on a couple of other transfers — running back Dante Dowdell from Nebraska and receiver Kendrick Law from Alabama. Calzada or Boley can help the Wildcats improve after ranking 119th in scoring offense (20.6 ppg).
Defense
Stoops’ defense kept Kentucky in some big games, including a 13-12 loss to Georgia, and ranked a respectable 33rd in scoring (22.1 ppg). But a unit that allowed just 15 ppg against Georgia and Ole Miss also was gashed for 48 points by Florida and 41 points by Louisville. Senior nose guard David Gusta from Washington State is Stoops’ most promising transfer addition. Senior linebacker Alex Afari and senior safety Jordan Lovett are the best players on the second and third levels.
Outlook
Assuming the Wildcats will handle Toledo, Eastern Michigan and Tennessee Tech, they will need two more wins to go Over a low total. But the worst teams in the league, aside from Kentucky, are Arkansas and Mississippi State and those opponents are not on Stoops’ schedule. The Wildcats could beat Tennessee in Lexington, but they must also pull a major upset or get a win at Auburn or Vanderbilt to overachieve. A team with a journeyman quarterback and countless question marks throughout the roster is a tough team to bet on, so this play is Under or pass.
Pick: Under 4.5
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LSU Tigers
In three years in Baton Rouge, Brian Kelly has coached LSU to a 29-11 record and produced a Heisman Trophy winner. It’s not enough. Kelly needs to reach the next level to quiet his critics, but that’s life in the SEC at elite programs. Kelly and his staff (and big-money boosters) hit the portal and hauled in arguably the nation’s top-ranked transfer class. Kelly also has a fifth-year quarterback, Garrett Nussmeier, who’s a Heisman candidate. The schedule is a bear, especially on the road, but a conference title is a realistic goal in the eyes of the Tigers.
Offense
It all starts with Nussmeier, who’s among the nation’s best even if he’s not quite Jayden Daniels or Joe Burrow. Nussmeier passed for 4,052 yards and 29 touchdowns last season. He’s got Aaron Anderson and Chris Hilton as returning receivers, and Nic Anderson is a hyped transfer from Oklahoma. Leading rusher Caden Durham also returns, but four starters must be replaced on the line. Nussmeier came on strong late as the Tigers thrashed the Sooners 37-17 in the regular-season finale and blew out Baylor 44-31 in the Texas Bowl. The passing offense, which ranked No. 7 nationally at 315 yards per game, could be more potent.
Defense
Several problems plagued the LSU defense, which ranked 59th in scoring (24.3 ppg), and injuries and a lack of talent topped the list. Star linebacker Harold Perkins is back after missing most of the season with a knee injury. Junior linebacker Whit Weeks, who had a team-high 125 tackles, is about as good as it gets in the SEC. Edge rusher Patrick Payton (Florida State) is one of many transfers who will step in to make a major impact. This unit will be vastly improved with an infusion of talent all over the field.
Outlook
The last thing LSU fans want to see again is Kelly banging his fists in fury after another sloppy early-season flop. The Tigers have lost their past five openers, and it only gets tougher as they open at Clemson on Aug. 30. Kelly might have won the transfer derby, but he didn’t hit the schedule lottery. The Tigers face conference road tests against Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. The home schedule features Florida, South Carolina and Texas A&M. LSU, which did catch breaks by avoiding Georgia and Texas this season, is likely to be favored in nine games and possibly 10. It’s tough to see the Tigers topping 10-2, but Kelly would take that or 9-3 and the playoff spot that comes with it.
Pick: Over 8.5
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Mississippi Rebels
Which team finished in the nation’s top three in scoring offense and defense last season yet missed the 12-team playoff? The answer is obviously Mississippi, which went 9-3 in the regular season. Lane Kiffin did lots of complaining and whining about not being selected for the playoffs, but the blame falls on him for losing 20-17 to Kentucky as a 15-point home favorite. The Wildcats finished 1-7 in SEC play, by the way. Kiffin has only five starters returning and must replace quarterback Jaxson Dart, a first-round pick by the Giants. Kiffin hit the transfer portal to reload, and he’s got a quarterback who’s ready to step in and trigger the offense.
Offense
Redshirt sophomore Austin Simmons could be Kiffin’s next great QB. The 6-foot-4 lefty attempted only 32 passes last season, though he did get some important playing time and led a touchdown drive in the Rebels’ 28-10 victory over Georgia. Cayden Lee is the top returning receiver, with stars Tre Harris and Jordan Watkins off to the NFL. Kiffin brought in transfers to fill the gaps at receiver and to rebuild a line that lost four starters. The running back depth looks good, headlined by senior Logan Diggs. It’s unrealistic to expect the No. 3 scoring offense (38.6 ppg) from a year ago to reappear. The skill positions are impressive, but the line could be a problem.
Defense
Defensive tackle Walter Nolen was the 16th overall pick by the Cardinals and the anchor of an Ole Miss defense that ranked No. 2 in scoring (14.4 ppg). Nolen was one of five Rebels defenders who were drafted. Junior linebacker Suntarine Perkins tied for the team lead with 10.5 sacks and will spearhead this unit. Veteran coordinator Pete Golding has a puzzle to put together, and Nebraska transfer end Princewill Umanmielen is a new piece to watch. Oscar Bird, a freshman punter from Australia, is intriguing.
Outlook
With a loaded roster on both sides of the ball last year, Kiffin blew it. The loss to Kentucky was inexcusable. This team has potential, but it’s not nearly as experienced or talented. The Rebels host LSU in late September and the going gets tougher by mid-October with road games against Georgia and Oklahoma and a home date with South Carolina. The schedule is favorable due to Alabama and Texas not being on it, so Kiffin’s crew has a chance to overachieve if Simmons grows up early and operates another high-scoring offense. Whether Ole Miss wins eight or nine is a coin flip.
Pick: Over 8.5
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Mississippi State Bulldogs
After successful stints as offensive coordinator at Ole Miss and Oklahoma, Jeff Lebby was hired as Mississippi State coach. He’s not making anyone around Starkville forget the late, great Mike Leach. In Lebby’s first season, the Bulldogs were bad on offense and even worse on defense. The result was a rock-bottom 0-8 finish in the SEC, with all eight losses by double-digit margins. The most alarming wake-up call was a 41-17 home loss to Toledo. There is a real possibility this team will go winless in conference play again this season.
Offense
Baylor transfer Blake Shapen got off to a good start by passing for 974 yards and eight touchdowns in four games before going down with a season-ending shoulder injury. Shapen is back and his backups are highly-touted freshman KaMario Taylor and Florida State transfer Luke Kromenhoek. Lebby’s offense, which ranked 86th in scoring, has a chance to make a significant leap if Shapen stays healthy. There are four running backs (Davon Booth, Johnnie Daniels, Xavier Gayten and South Alabama transfer Fluff Bothwell) capable of carrying the mail. Three SEC transfer receivers — Anthony Evans (Georgia), Brenen Thompson (Oklahoma) and Ayden Williams (Ole Miss) — could step in to make plays. The biggest concern is a line that Lebby is rebuilding with a handful of transfers.
Defense
The Bulldogs ranked 125th in total defense (456 yards per game), 129th in rushing (217 ypg) and 117th in scoring (34.1 ppg). It was the second-worst defense among all Power-4 conference teams, ahead of only Purdue, the last-place team in the Big Ten. The brightest spot was Isaac Smith, who led the team with 127 tackles and returns as one of the SEC’s top safeties. The middle of the defense is a strength, with linebacker Jalen Smith set to make a major impact as a transfer from Tennessee.
Outlook
Eight other teams in the SEC are looking at Mississippi State on the schedule and counting it as a win. Kentucky, the league’s other seemingly hopeless team, is unfortunately not on the Bulldogs’ schedule. Lebby went 2-10 last season and beat only Eastern Kentucky and Massachusetts. He will whip two more nonconference lightweights, Alcorn State and Northern Illinois, this season. Shapen is the key to the Bulldogs showing improvement and pulling a conference upset or two. But there’s no use here in trying to put lipstick on a pig because it looks ridiculous and irritates the pig.
Pick: Under 3.5
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Missouri Tigers
Eli Drinkwitz failed to produce a winning record in his first three years at Missouri, but the past two years were a much different story. Drinkwitz went 11-2 in 2023 and 10-3 last season, capping each season with a bowl victory over a Big Ten opponent. The Tigers had talent and a lot of it. Drinkwitz now must coach up a new team. While three-year starting quarterback Brady Cook and star receiver Luther Burden III are off to the NFL, Drinkwitz appears to have hit paydirt in the transfer portal on both sides of the ball. The most important factor in Missouri’s success this season might be a schedule that is arguably the softest in the SEC.
Offense
Penn State transfer Beau Pribula is favored to win a quarterback competition against Sam Horn. Pribula displayed promising dual-threat abilities for the Nittany Lions as a backup. Cook, who won 20 games as the starter the past two years, went undrafted and signed with the Jets. Burden, a second-round pick by the Bears, is expected to be replaced by Mississippi State transfer Kevin Coleman. Of all the transfers, running back Ahmad Hardy is the best bet to put up big numbers. Hardy led all freshmen with 1,351 yards rushing last season at UL Monroe. Hardy is not out of his league and should be one of the top runners in the SEC. The line is somewhat of a concern with only two returning starters, but it looks good on paper.
Defense
Georgia transfer Damon Wilson II will start on one end and senior Zion Young returns to handle the other end. Wilson and Young headline an outstanding defensive front. Josiah Trotter, who starred as a freshman at West Virginia, and returning senior Triston Newson lead the linebackers. UNLV transfer Jalen Catalon will start at safety and should be a major contributor. A defense that ranked 20th in scoring (20.3 ppg) is deep and could be even better this season.
Outlook
Drinkwitz reloaded with a great group of transfers. Pribula, Hardy, Coleman, Wilson, Trotter and Catalon will be difference-makers for the Tigers. It’s not fair to say the schedule is easy because this is the SEC and Alabama and South Carolina are on the schedule, but Missouri is the envy of all other teams in the league. Six teams had losing records in conference play last season, and five of those are on Missouri’s schedule. The Tigers will host the Crimson Tide and Gamecocks. To top it off, Drinkwitz gets his first six games at home. This could be a sleeper team.
Pick: Over 7
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Oklahoma Sooners
Sometimes a great coordinator does not make the transition to being a great head coach, and Brent Venables has been another example of that. Venables has a 22-17 record in three years at Oklahoma, but that includes two losing seasons. Venables seemed to gain traction with a late-season 24-3 upset of Alabama, yet what followed was a blowout loss at LSU and bowl loss to Navy. The Sooners bottomed out by hitting a three-game losing streak in the middle of last season, including a 34-3 whipping by Texas. It’s darkest before dawn, and changes are coming, starting with a new quarterback, running back and offensive coordinator. If the changes don’t work, Venables’ shaky job status could be the next thing to change.
Offense
It’s mostly up to John Mateer to steer the Sooner Schooner wagon in the right direction. Mateer was a wanted man in the transfer portal after a huge year at Washington State, where he passed for 3,139 yards and 29 touchdowns and ran for 826 yards and 15 touchdowns. Mateer’s 44 total touchdowns tied for No. 1 in the nation. Venables also hired Ben Arbuckle away from Washington State. Arbuckle and Mateer teamed to lead the Cougars to 36.6 ppg, the sixth-best scoring offense in the country. Another impact addition is running back Jaydn Ott, a transfer from Cal who’s a legit star. Deion Burks headlines a receiving corps with questions, and the line was a weakness a year ago, so some concerns remain. Still, expect a significant jump from the Sooners’ 24 ppg, which ranked 97th nationally.
Venables calls the defense, which always will be his strength. He’s not a good clock and game manager, but Kevin Wilson has returned to the staff as an analyst to assist with those duties. Senior end R Mason Thomas and junior linebacker Kip Lewis will be leaders for a unit that will miss NFL draft picks Danny Stutsman and Billy Bowman.
Defense
Outlook
For the second straight year, Oklahoma drew a bad hand when the SEC dealt the schedule cards. The Sooners, who host Michigan on Sept. 6, will pack their bags for road trips to Alabama, South Carolina and Tennessee in addition to games against Texas, Auburn, Mississippi and LSU. Still, there is real hope the Sooners can handle the scheduling grind due to the arrival of Mateer and Ott in Arbuckle’s new-look offense. Venables went 10-3 in 2023, a win total that is not going to be matched this year, but Oklahoma could win eight games. Seven wins seems slightly more likely, so look Under 7.5 (-140) at Circa Sports.
Pick: Under 7.5
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South Carolina Gamecocks
If you like to bet on a reliable coach-quarterback combo, this is a team for you. The Shane Beamer-LaNorris Sellers duo is dynamic. Beamer went 9-4 last year and continues to prove he’s a rising star as a coach. Sellers was so impressive as a redshirt freshman that he’s already one of the top three quarterback prospects in next year’s draft. South Carolina was close to being a playoff team, but narrow losses to LSU and Alabama meant a lesser trip to the Citrus Bowl. While Beamer must replace a lot of talent that departed for the NFL, he’s still got Sellers for another season, so the ceiling is high.
Offense
Sellers is a 6-foot-3, 240-pound stud with a strong arm and superb athletic ability. He passed for 2,534 yards, rushed for 674 yards and totaled 25 touchdowns. Those numbers are about to take a big leap, health permitting, and Sellers’ durability is obviously a key to the season. Sellers suffered an ankle injury when the Gamecocks squandered a 17-0 lead and lost 36-33 to LSU. Leading rusher Raheim “Rocket” Sanders, who went undrafted and signed with the Chargers, will be replaced by Rahsul Faison, a transfer from Utah State. The receivers look promising and the line has depth. One wrinkle is a new coordinator as Mike Shula takes over for Dowell Loggains, now the head coach at Appalachian State.
Defense
A defense that ranked 12th in scoring (18.1 ppg) lost six players, including three on the line, to the NFL Draft. Sophomore end Dylan Stewart and junior corner Jalon Kilgore should be among the top defensive players in the conference. It’s tough to replace most of the line and the starting linebackers and maintain such a high level of play.
Outlook
The Gamecocks open against Virginia Tech in Atlanta on Aug. 31, followed by September games against South Carolina State, Vanderbilt, Missouri and Kentucky. Beamer must start at least 4-1 for his team to have a realistic chance to reach lofty goals. A five-game stretch starting in mid-October is about as rough as it gets with road trips to LSU, Mississippi and Texas A&M in addition to home games against Alabama and Oklahoma. Sellers is a rising star, a Superman of sorts, and a quarterback of his caliber will give the Gamecocks a shot to win every game. Beamer is a bet-on coach, yet with holes to fill on defense and special teams, South Carolina will come up short of the playoffs again. The win total is 7.5 (Under -150) at DraftKings and 7 (Over -135) at Circa Sports.
Pick: Under 7.5
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Tennessee Volunteers
The thrill of making the trip to the College Football Playoff was quickly gone for the Volunteers, who were obliterated 42-17 at Ohio State and then lost their star quarterback in a stunning development. Nico Iamaleava wanted more money and left Tennessee in what could be called a contract dispute. Iamaleava landed at UCLA, which already had a new transfer quarterback. The Vols and Bruins basically traded QBs in a bizarre situation. All of that is in the past. Tennessee coach Josh Heupel will adjust on the fly and try to produce another 10-win season with his fast-paced offense and a defense that was dominant in most games.
Offense
Joey Aguilar passed for 6,759 yards and 56 touchdowns in two seasons at Appalachian State before briefly transferring to UCLA and then changing course to Tennessee. Aguilar, a 6-foot-3 senior with running ability, did throw a total of 24 interceptions in those two years and needs to cut down that number. The Volunteers also must replace running back Dylan Sampson, who rushed for 1,491 yards and 22 touchdowns and was a fourth-round pick by the Browns. DeSean Bishop, who ran for 455 yards and 6.1 per carry, follows in Sampson’s footsteps. The line is retooled and will feature Notre Dame transfer Sam Pendleton and five-star freshman David Sanders. Heupel orchestrated the 12th-ranked scoring offense (35.7 ppg) last season, but that average was inflated due to lopsided victories over lightweights Chattanooga (69-3), Kent State (71-0) and UTEP (56-0).
Defense
Edge rusher James Pearce Jr., a first-round pick by the Falcons, led a Volunteers defense that ranked No. 7 in scoring (16.1 ppg). Seven starters return and the talent level will be similar across the board. Senior linemen Dominic Bailey and Bryson Eason, linebacker Arion Carter and cornerback Jermod McCoy will be players to watch.
Outlook
Iamaleava was not great last year, so Aguilar could be a suitable replacement if he picks up Heupel’s offense in a hurry. Tennessee caught some scheduling breaks similar to Missouri — six teams had losing records in SEC play last season, and five of those teams are on the Vols’ schedule. The Vols host Georgia in September and have dates down the road at Alabama and Florida, but the rest of the schedule is manageable. Heupel has proven he can win at a high level, and now he’s got to coach up a new quarterback. Don’t count out Tennessee as a potential surprise team, but 8-4 is probably the result.
Pick: Under 8.5
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Texas Longhorns
After five years in Austin, Steve Sarkisian has raised the bar to the highest level. The Longhorns reached the SEC title game last year and lost in the CFP semifinals the past two years. Is Arch Manning destined to get Texas over the top? There will be those who believe the “Arch Madness” hype and those who doubt it, yet Manning will be an upgrade the team has needed at quarterback. Sarkisian has recruited well and should be able to fill the holes left by 23 players who were picked in the past two NFL drafts.
Offense
Manning has displayed impressive athletic ability in limited action. He probably should have played more — making two starts and attempting 90 passes last season — but Sarkisian stuck to the plan and went with Quinn Ewers down the stretch. Ewers had some shortcomings, and the NFL made that clear when he slipped to the seventh round of the draft. In the spring, Manning showed off a more muscular frame and improved zip on his passes. He can run and throw accurate deep balls. He’s ready. The line in front of him is one question mark. Eight starters, including four linemen, departed from an offense that scored 33 ppg, yet only 17 ppg in two losses to Georgia. Quintrevion Wisner and CJ Baxter are promising running backs. Manning’s primary receivers will be DeAndre Moore, Ryan Wingo and Stanford transfer Emmet Mosley.
Defense
The nation’s No. 3 scoring defense (15.3 ppg) lost six starters, including cornerback Jahdae Barron, a first-round pick by the Broncos. All four defensive line starters must be replaced, but Sarkisian has recruited plenty of reinforcements and this will be an extremely talented unit on all three levels. Edge rusher Colin Simmons, linebacker Anthony Hill Jr., corner Malik Muhammad and safeties Jelani McDonald and Michael Taaffe are rising stars.
Outlook
It will be difficult for the Longhorns to win 11 regular-season games again, mostly because the schedule is more challenging this time around. In addition to the opener at Ohio State, Texas will play at Florida and Georgia. As always, there is the rivalry meeting with Oklahoma in Dallas, a game the Longhorns won 34-3 a year ago, and the Sooners will put up a better fight this time. If Captain Obvious were a handicapper, he would say the road game against the Buckeyes will go a long way in determining Texas’ win total and Manning’s Heisman hopes. While that is true, the Longhorns should reach 9-3 and be title contenders even if they lose at Ohio State in late August. Manning is likely the real deal, but betting Over 9.5 wins at -170 is still risky business.
Pick: Under 9.5
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Texas A&M Aggies
Maybe some expectations for Texas A&M were too high in coach Mike Elko’s first season. Elko arrived from Duke and energized a fan base that annually wants to compete for championships. In college football, teams don’t win conference titles and make playoff appearances without an elite quarterback. The Aggies didn’t have a star quarterback last year and still don’t, but Marcel Reed is only a sophomore and still is maturing. Texas A&M lost four of its final five games to finish 8-5. A 17-7 loss to Texas in College Station was especially disappointing because the Longhorns stumbled through most of the game while the Aggies blew several chances to pull the upset.
Offense
Senior running back Le’Veon Moss and an experienced, massive line will be the Aggies’ strength. Moss finished the season with 765 rushing yards (6.3 per carry) and 10 touchdowns, yet he was unable to stay healthy and that must change. Texas A&M went 7-1 with Moss and 1-4 without him after a season-ending injury. Three senior starters return on a line that is led by 6-foot-7, 320-pound left tackle Trey Zuhn. The Aggies’ main quarterbacks, Reed and Conner Weigman, combined for 18 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions. Reed totaled 22 touchdowns, including seven on the ground, and he’s got dual-threat ability that could shine if he develops. Reed will have better receivers to target, including transfers KC Concepcion (North Carolina State) and Mario Craver (Mississippi State). Moss and Reed should lead a high-scoring offense.
Defense
Elko returns eight starters from a solid defense that allowed 22.2 ppg. However, the three starters who left for the NFL — first-round pick Shemar Stewart and second-rounders Nic Scourton and Shemar Turner — will be missed. Senior linemen Cashius Howell and Albert Regis and veteran linebackers Scooby Williams and Taurean York will lead the front.
Outlook
The Aggies dropped a 23-13 decision to Notre Dame in Elko’s debut at home before reeling off a seven-game win streak. The season ended with a 35-31 loss to USC in the Las Vegas Bowl. The schedule is a little tougher this year as Texas A&M faces the Fighting Irish on the road in September prior to trips to LSU, Missouri and Texas. The most difficult home tests will be against Florida and South Carolina. Elko can win eight games again, but that’s probably the ceiling unless Reed turns into a star and that’s possible. This team has potential, and while the quarterback play will determine if the Aggies overachieve, they have typically underachieved.
Pick: Under 8.5
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Vanderbilt Commodores
Clark Lea and Diego Pavia authored college football’s top feel-good story last season, leading Vanderbilt to an upset of Alabama and a 7-6 finish with a bowl win. To put that in perspective, the Commodores went 2-10 in 2023 and were 2-22 in SEC play in Lea’s first three years as coach in Nashville. Pavia is the ultimate underdog quarterback, an undersized 6-foot grinder who started his career in the middle of nowhere. In July, Lea and Pavia showed up at the SEC media days in Atlanta and made bold statements about what this team can do. Is Vanderbilt headed for back-to-back bowls?
Offense
Pavia sued the NCAA for an extra, sixth year of eligibility and won. He spent 2020 and 2021 at New Mexico Military Institute and the following two years at New Mexico State. In his first year at Vanderbilt, Pavia totaled 3,093 total yards (2,293 passing, 800 rushing) and 28 touchdowns with four interceptions. After the Commodores’ 40-35 victory over Alabama, which was a 23-point favorite, Pavia put a scare into Texas in a 27-24 loss. He blossomed in coordinator Tim Beck’s spread-option offense. Junior running back Sedrick Alexander also returns along with the team’s top pass catchers, tight end Eli Stowers and receiver Junior Sherrill. Senior guard Chase Mitchell is the lone returning starter on a line that is being rebuilt with transfers.
Defense
Lea was the Notre Dame defensive coordinator before taking the Vanderbilt job, but his defenses were unimpressive until last year. The Commodores surrendered 36.2 ppg in 2023 and cut that number all the way to 23.4 ppg in 2024. Eight starters are back, led by junior linebacker Bryan Longwell, so Lea should have another solid defense.
Outlook
Pavia recently made an outlandish comment at SEC media days, saying, “Going 7-6 wasn’t good enough. I came back because I want to win a national championship.” Setting high goals is great, but a national title is wildly unrealistic. Lea doubled down by saying, “We believe we have what it takes to play into January.” Those lines would be a big hit in a comedy club. The Commodores will face Alabama, South Carolina, Texas and Tennessee on the road, in addition to LSU and Missouri at home, so good luck with those playoff dreams. Vanderbilt’s rise from the conference cellar was worthy of a movie script and the sequel season will be intriguing. Winning seven regular-season games would be another huge success, and six would be just fine.
Pick: Over 5.5
