College Football Conference Championship Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
I was exactly .500 last week, going 10-10 with my college football Best Bets. Almost feels like a waste of time on many occasions this year as I write up 20+ favorite plays each week and simply tread water. That said, over the last seven or eight bowl seasons, I’ve had a head-to-head matchup with Brent Musburger picking all of the game lines and totals. Perhaps, being a heavy system and data bettor, that is a better use of my talents, as I seem to do well in that. In fact, I’ve been profitable in three straight bowl seasons executing that strategy. Therefore, I’m going to experiment this week by doing that exact thing for the nine FBS games this weekend. With that in mind, sporting a 131-144 record heading into the conference title games, I’ve pored through all of this week’s VSiN College Football Analytics Report, the betting splits, my current strength ratings, and everything else at my disposal, and here is what I have come up for college football Week 15.
Note that I put together complete game previews for the conference championship games on a separate article and am just sharing my top systems, trends, and other data points that led me to my picks for the games here.
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 5, 2025
Kennesaw State (-2.5 / 58.5) at Jacksonville State
Conference USA Championship
Aren’t you the least bit curious as to why the line has only moved a point in the rematch of the Kennesaw State-Jacksonville State game from a few weeks ago? JSU won that game 35-26 and is the defending champion, yet oddsmakers still give KSU the edge in this league title game played in the same location. A quick check of the box score from that recent head-to-head meeting reveals something very definitive.
The Owls gained 579 yards of offense that day and outgained the Gamecocks by 128 yards. The reason they lost: four interceptions thrown by their quarterbacks! They only threw five more in their 11 other games! I don’t suspect we will see that type of thing this time around.
I believe KSU has proven for most of the season that they are the better team in this matchup by winning eight of their last nine games while going 7-2 ATS. Jacksonville State has been up & down, not unlike other teams with first-time head coaches. The last seven CUSA title games have gone Over the total and winners in eight of the last 10 games have topped the 40-point plateau. I expect we’ll see KSU get at or near that mark here.
Conference Championship Best Bet: Give me Kennesaw State -2.5 and Over 58.5 in CUSA title game
Troy at James Madison (-23.5 / 47.5)
Sun Belt Championship
Undoubtedly, James Madison was the class of the Sun Belt Conference this season, and will be hungry to wrap up a first league title on Friday night. However, I think a lot of the motivation to impress the CFP committee was taken away when it was determined that the Dukes had little or no chance to pass either of the two AAC teams in that title game. Instead, JMU is left to having to cover a 23.5-point spread against what might be the SBC’s most feisty road and underdog opponent in recent years, Troy.
Let’s not discount the Trojans too much here, as prior to last season’s coaching change to head coach Gerad Parker and an uncustomary 4-8 finish, this program was the best, or among the best in the SBC. The trends speak for themselves: Troy has won 13 of its last 16 Sun Belt road games ATS, Troy is on a 20-5 ATS run in Sun Belt play when coming off a win.
We also have a ranked home team system showing ranked home favorites of more than 14 points are 354-27 SU but just 168-209-4 ATS (44.6%) versus unranked conference opponents since October ’15. So, not that I like the dog, interestingly, in each of the three prior SBC title games in which the favorite covered, Over the total was the result. In the underdog covers, Under is 3-0.
Conference Championship Best Bet: I’ll go Troy +23.5 and Under 47.5 in SBC championship
North Texas (-2.5 / 66.5) at Tulane
American Athletic Championship
I had the pleasure of seeing Tulane get whipped by Ole Miss in Oxford this year in person, and ever since, I’ve watched the Green Wave closely and have felt that something was missing. To me, the addition of BYU transfer QB Jake Retzlaff in the offseason never panned out as well as most people would have expected. In fact, in this game, there is an 18.1 PPG offensive edge for North Texas.
On top of that, Tulane found out this week that it is losing another coach, although Jon Sumrall has indicated he will coach this game and any CFP contest that might come. Even still, that is a blow to all of these players who are now reconsidering their futures this week instead of focusing 100% on a very prolific North Texas team that is 11-1. The Mean Green are on a 6-0 SU and ATS streak going into this contest and will certainly be hungry to capture a first AAC title. I don’t see how taking an Under makes any sense here either, with UNT having scored 45 or more in its last four road games and Tulane probably having to play catch-up at times.
Conference Championship Best Bet: I’ll go with North Texas -2.5 and Over 66.5 in this AAC title contest
UNLV at Boise State (-4 / 58.5)
Mountain West Championship
Boise State is in familiar territory, playing in yet another Mountain West title game, their ninth out of the last 13. It would seem perhaps a little daunting to back the Broncos here after the way they ended the season (1-3-1 ATS L5 games), but there are numerous trends and systems on their side, they are getting fiery QB Maddux Madsen back for the game, they have owned UNLV in recent years, and of course, they will be playing on the familiar smurf turf in front of the home folks.
Sometimes it’s just too much stacked up against the underdog. This upcoming Friday night matchup is not only a rematch of the last two MWC title games, but also one of those decisive earlier-season matchups in Boise, won handily by the Broncos, 56-31. That was the ninth straight win for Boise State, as well as the fifth straight cover in the head-to-head series.
You might be surprised to know that as of Wednesday afternoon, 63% of the handle at DraftKings had come in on the underdog UNLV team. Here are a couple of the system/trend angles I’m looking at: 1) Favorites of >= 4 points on Mountain West Friday Nights have gone 56-4 SU (~+39.05 units) since 2016. 2) Boise State is a perfect 10-0 ATS in MWC play when coming off a close win of 7 points or fewer.
Conference Championship Best Bet: I’ll go Boise State -4 and Under 58.5 in the MWC contest
Saturday, December 6, 2025
BYU vs. Texas Tech (-12.5 / 50.5)
Big 12 Championship
There aren’t a whole lot of teams that have been more dominant than Texas Tech has been over the last month or so, as the Red Raiders won their last five games SU and ATS while outscoring opponents 211-36. One of those wins was a 29-7 decision over the same BYU team they will be facing off with on Saturday for the Big 12 title.
For whatever reason, most of the money (64% handle) at DraftKings, however, is on the underdog Cougars. Perhaps those bettors have not seen the conference title game trend showing Power 5 conference title game neutral field double-digit favorites are on a 23-game SU winning streak and are 16-7 ATS (69.6%) in a span that dates back to 2008.
Over the total is also 12-6 (66.7%) in the last 18 of those games. In addition, in the eight prior games of the series, favorites own a 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS edge. If all that weren’t enough, and you’re still nervous about laying big points in a conference title game, consider that Texas Tech is 21-6 ATS (77.8%) in its last 27 games as a double-digit favorite.
Conference Championship Best Bet: I’ll get behind Texas Tech (-12.5) and Over 50.5 in the Big 12 title contest
Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan (-2.5 / 43.5)
MAC Championship
Sometimes handicapping these conference title games comes down to one simple thing: Which team is better right now? It’s easy to look at the earlier season game between teams as a blueprint, and perhaps taking a look back at the championship experience of the teams also helps, but in the case of the MAC title game, it just feels to me like it’s Western Michigan’s turn to finally get one of these.
Yes, I know that Miami (OH) won the October 25th matchup between these teams, but since then, the Redhawks lost to the two quality teams they faced and beat the two doormats. The latter games are interesting in that they won those final two games behind backup QB Thomas Gotkowski, who took over after original starter DeQuan Finn left to get ready for the NFL draft. He hasn’t faced a good defense like that of the Broncos yet.
In fact, the WMU defense allowed just 14.4 PPG in its final nine contests, turning around a 0-3 start to finish 8-4. I think that unit dominates this contest, and since I respect head coach Chuck Martin’s defense as well, it makes an Under also a nice choice. That would be the seventh straight in this title game series.
Conference Championship Best Bet: I’ll go Western Michigan -2.5 and Under 43.5 in the MAC game
Georgia (-2.5 / 47.5) vs. Alabama
SEC Championship
For as much as Georgia and Alabama are both highly rated teams as usual as they meet again for another SEC title, I honestly feel that neither offense was really clicking down the stretch, and that points figure to be hard to come by on Saturday in Atlanta. Which team has the edge, though? Well, since 2018, in the five neutral field contests these teams have played, Alabama is up 3-2 SU but Georgia owns a 3-2 ATS edge.
Perhaps more importantly, underdogs have gone 4-1 ATS in those games as neither team likes to be told it is worse than the other. Neither team is a stranger to this game, but the records in them are vastly different. Georgia is 5-7 SU and 7-5 ATS in 12 prior appearances. Alabama is playing in its 16th SEC title game as a program, and 10th since 2008. The Tide have won eight straight in this title game series while going 6-2 ATS. Underdogs are also on a 4-1 ATS run currently in this game, with Unders the result in the most recent two.
Conference Championship Best Bet: Give me Alabama +2.5 and Under 47.5 in the SEC title game
Duke vs. Virginia (-3.5 / 57.5)
ACC Championship
I don’t want to actually utter the words that the ACC as a conference might “intervene” to make sure Virginia wins this game and advances to the CFP, but honestly, how embarrassing would it be for the league to be left out of the proceedings? If you need a reminder, the Duke Blue Devils were 7-5 overall. They won’t be a playoff team even if they win.
With the three-game-better won-lost mark, the Cavaliers are the rightful favorites for Saturday and will be looking to extend a run of 12-1 SU and 7-1 ATS in this title game series. The lone loss for both of those trends came a year ago, however, when Clemson (+2.5) upended SMU 34-31. If you’re wondering, yes, these teams did meet just a few weeks ago in Durham, with Virginia (+5.5) pulling the 34-17 so-called upset. Overall, Virginia has dominated the recent head-to-head set, going 9-1 ATS in the last 10. I think Duke will score, but Virginia will score more.
Conference Championship Best Bet: It’s Virginia -3.5 and Over 57.5 in the ACC title game for me
Indiana vs. Ohio State (-4.5 / 48.5)
Big Ten Championship
The history of the Ohio State-Indiana head-to-head series is otherwise irrelevant as it pertains to this matchup for the Big Ten title and #1 seed in the CFP. In fact, the only game that can even be considered as valid for using for handicapping this one would be last year’s contest, a 38-15 Buckeyes’ win in which the high-powered Hoosiers’ offense was held to just 151 yards. However, that game was in Columbus in late-season miserable conditions, so even that doesn’t carry much weight, since OSU was built far better for the conditions. I can assure you that the conditions in Lucas Oil Stadium on Saturday in Indianapolis will be perfect, and I’d even say favorable to regional host Indiana.
Does it make sense to step on the tracks in front of a Buckeyes’ train that is the defending national champion, boasts a 12-0 SU and 10-2 ATS record, and really hasn’t been challenged since August? Well, it might not, but I’m going to do it anyway. I think the only game either of these two teams played this year that is worthy of any comparison to this one is Indiana’s win at Oregon. You can argue Texas for OSU, but truly, Texas is much better now than then. In my opinion, Indiana has grown a lot in year two under head coach Curt Cignetti, as they are better balanced on both sides of the ball now and more physically capable of playing at this level. I also don’t feel like OSU has the offense to separate here. I don’t think I’m off in saying that this line surprised me at -5.5 when it came out. I have it at -2.5, and that is considering it a true neutral environment, which it might not be.
Speaking of the game from last year, it does make this a revenge scenario, and since the start of the 2016 season, neutral field underdogs playing in revenge mode have gone 51-32 ATS (61.4%). Getting back to the line and the disparity of money on each side. Head coach Ryan Day’s team is sitting as 4.5-point favorites, with 87% of the handle, and 73% of the bets at DraftKings on that side of the ledger. Interestingly, with all that money on OSU, the line has dropped from -5.5 to -4.5. That is quite curious. I think this will be a slugfest that could go either way. Let’s call it 24-23, OSU.
Conference Championship Best Bet: I’ll go with Indiana +4.5 and Under 48.5 versus Ohio State
For more college football conference championship best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Conference Championship hub, exclusively on VSiN.
