College Football Week 1 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
Went 3-3 on my Best Bets last Saturday for Week 0 of college football and honestly feel like I got robbed on the Hawaii loss. Looking back, it seemed like I was with too many other opinions on that one, and I never like that. Even still, after taking a late 4-point fourth-quarter lead with a +4-point dog, you typically win those wagers 95% of the time. Oh well, onward and upward, I guess.
As we take a look at the first full week of games, I truly feel like I have studied the sport so closely over the last couple of months that I could have a valid opinion for every one of the 43 FBS vs. FBS games on the board plus some of the FBS vs. FCS games. However, this is a Best Bet column, so I will only share some of the stronger convictions I have. As usual, if there is nothing on the VSiN College Football Analytics Report that backs, or even serves as the reason for my opinion, you won’t find it here. Good luck and enjoy five straight days of season-opening college football action!
Friday, September 4, 2026
San Jose State at Eastern Michigan (total 56.5)
This is the first game of the season matching opponents that already played last week. To me, this should benefit defenses, as each gets enough film on the opponent that there shouldn’t be many surprises. Neither team was good offensively last week. San Jose State went scoreless in the first half against a USC defense that is known for allowing a lot of points. Eastern Michigan gained 348 yards but only 5.1 per play on a rebuilt former FCS defense in Sacramento State.
This is one of the stability system games for the week on EMU, but I am going to choose to focus on the total here, as I have a hard time seeing this game turn into a shootout of any sort. EMU actually looked good on defense last week, allowing 268 yards and 4.3 YPP. The Eagles have a pretty experienced unit back. As it is, non-conference games between Group of 6 opponents featuring a home favorite have been unexpectedly lower scoring, producing 46 Unders, 27 Overs (63%) since 2013. I look for a 27-21 type of game.
College Football Best Bet: Give me UNDER 56.5 with San Jose State-Eastern Michigan
Toledo (+10) at Michigan State
If you missed my 60 CFB teams with definitive tendencies article from earlier in the week, I would suggest you check that out. One of the more intriguing angles involved Michigan State: Michigan State is 0-7 ATS (0%) for -7.7 units as a favorite over the last two seasons. I wrote that new head coach Pat Fitzgerald steps into an unenviable situation where the team he takes over is looking to get back to the past, or the days when football almost started to rival basketball as the sport of choice on campus. First order of business will be to win the games his team is supposed to.
For this game, we have a convergence of trends: Toledo is on an underdog winning streak ATS of seven games, and Michigan State is on the exact same skid as a favorite. Oddsmakers don’t seem to care, as MSU is a 10-point favorite for the game. It is a very public offering too, as 86% of the handle as of this writing was on MSU. There is also a key CFP Weeks 0/1 Betting Concept that says to be careful with the P4 vs. G5 non-conference games in Week 0/1 when the P4 home favorite isn’t expected to overwhelm the opponent, as the visiting G5 teams have proven heavily motivated to cover point spreads in recent years. In fact, this trend has shifted dramatically since 2023: P4 home favorites of -30 or fewer points are 42-5 SU vs. G5 teams in Weeks 0/1 but just 18-29 ATS (38.3%) over the last three seasons.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Toledo +10 as the MSU Fitzgerald era gets off to a slow start
Miami (FL) at Stanford (total 48.5)
There are a lot of things on this week’s Analytics Report that would suggest Stanford’s instability is something to play against this week against Miami, especially with the Cardinal coming off a come-from-behind win a week ago. However, I’m not comfortable backing a 24.5-point road favorite in a cross-country conference game when the host has momentum. Instead, it is a total look for me again. The number is set at 48.5 and is being heavily backed to go Over, with 85%+ of the handle and bets at DraftKings. I believe a lot of bettors are focusing on Miami’s offensive surge at the end of the season and the positive impact transfer QB Darian Mensah is expected to have.
However, for me, I love what the Hurricanes’ dominant defense is bringing back for 2026, and I think that will be the unit that controls this game. After the UVS-NC State Under last week, Week 0/1 games between P4 conference opponents in Weeks 0/1 have been ridiculously low scoring since 2021, producing 15 Unders, 6 Overs (71.4% Under) and 46.6 PPG on average since 2021. Plus, oddsmakers are leading you to water on low-total games in Weeks 0/1, especially with bigger favorites, as in games with totals of 48.5 or less and a favorite of 4 points or more, Under the total is 51-23 (68.9%) since 2013. I think this game lands close to the number but Under, let’s say 34-10.
College Football Best Bet: Give me UNDER 48.5 in Miami (FL)-Stanford
UTEP at Oklahoma (-40.5)
Hopefully, by now you have seen the CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #1, which states that huge home favorites (-36 points or more) have been outstanding in FBS vs. FBS matchups in the opening week(s) of college football since 2013, going 24-0 SU and 18-6 ATS (75%)! There are four such games for this week, and I ranked this as #2 on the list. I will eventually be playing three of the four games.
Oklahoma comes into 2026 with lofty expectations, none higher than a Heisman campaign being run for QB John Mateer. The Sooners have 16 starters back in all and appear ready to face what looks like one of the toughest schedules in the country. This is one of the only easy games on their slate, and I would figure they are ready to take full advantage and build some momentum for their trip to Michigan next Saturday. OU has been a pretty strong non-conference team, going 14-8 ATS since 2022.
They’ve also been known for taking care of business lately, 12-8 ATS over the last three years as chalk. UTEP is off a 2-10 season and starting a new era in the Mountain West. The Miners have been quite the opposite in non-conference games, 13-31 ATS since 2015. They were also 1-7 ATS as dogs last year. This one has blowout written all over it.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll lay the 40.5 points with Oklahoma
Saturday, September 5, 2026
Coastal Carolina at West Virginia (-20.5)
In my season win total wagers published in the VSiN College Football Betting Guide, I wrote about Coastal Carolina: Is there cause for concern already in Myrtle Beach as new head coach Ryan Beard begins his tenure with the Coastal Carolina program? The Chanticleers have been a bowl game and Sun Belt contending fixture over the last half-decade or so. His first recruiting class was a nightmare by program standards, coming on the heels of what is a sliding performance chart. Beard’s predecessor, Tim Beck, failed to live up to the successes of his predecessor, Jamey Chadwell, and was eventually fired at the conclusion of the 6-6 regular season last year. His swan song was a 59-10 drubbing by James Madison. The program followed that up with another bowl game loss. In the final three regular-season games, Beck’s CCU team was outscored 155-57. Thus, the Chanticleers will be looking to snap a four-game losing skid in their opener at West Virginia.
Junior college transfer QB Tre Guerra is sitting #1 on the depth chart, with very little starting experience elsewhere. The win total is at 4.5, a very low number considering where this program has been in recent years. I think the experts are telling us this is going to be a trying season in Myrtle Beach. Well, we have arrived at that WVU game, and it is one of our Stability System games. We know that new head coaches are 92-154 SU and 111-133 ATS (45.5%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus returning head coaches since 2021. We also know that West Virginia has gone 22-13 ATS (62.9%) at home in the last six seasons. The Mountaineers have also been a 20+ point favorite exactly once in each of the last five seasons, and their record in those games is a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS.
College Football Best Bet: Give me West Virginia -20.5 to have an easy time with Coastal Carolina
Marshall (+23.5) at Penn State
This is another Stability System game for Week 1 as Penn State starts over as Iowa State East with head coach Matt Campbell and many of his ISU players coming over for 2026. It is also one of the games I touched upon a couple of times in my CFB team tendencies piece, as Marshall is 9-0 ATS (100%) for +9 units as an underdog over the last two seasons. Two different coaches, two solid seasons as underdogs for the Herd. Head coach Tony Gibson hopes his team can maintain its underdog success in 2026, giving it a shot to contend in a wide-open Sun Belt Conference. I also wrote that Marshall has a big underdog spot to open the season, a clash at Penn State against a completely new and rebuilt Nittany Lions team. The Herd has a lot back on offense, including QB Carlos Del Rio-Wilson, who had a big year in 2025.
Should PSU be on upset alert? The Nittany Lions have a Stability Score of 3 for 2026, and pne of my stability angles says to play against any college football teams with stability scores of 0-6 in non-conference games in the first four weeks of the season (Weeks 0, 1, 2, 3) versus teams with higher scores, assuming the game does not have a point spread of -30 or higher for either team (Fade record 260-138 SU and 218-175-4 ATS, 55.5% since 2013). I have a hard time seeing this being an easy game for PSU.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Marshall +23.5 to keep things interesting at Penn State
Western Michigan at Michigan (total 49.5)
The Kyle Whittingham era begins at Michigan, and while I don’t think the Wolverines are in much trouble against Western Michigan on Saturday, I do have my concerns about whether or not they can cover a pretty big number. I am very concerned about their ability to score points, as they failed to top the 24-point mark in any of their five home games last season. They have seven starters back on each side of the ball, and I have to believe it is safe to guess that the defense will be the better unit out of the gate. Which leads me to consider another Under play here.
Several analytics pieces back me. First, this is a big public Over play at last check; 71% of the handle and 81% of the bets at DK are on that side of the ledger. Second, while they didn’t score all that well at home last year, the Wolverines allowed only 16.4 PPG at home. Western Michigan was very good last year on defense, allowing 17.4 PPG for the season, an almost unheard of figure for a MAC team. Finally, if you look at the recent history of this series, Under the total has converted in the last five meetings between in-state foes WMU and UM.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go with UNDER 49.5 in WMU-Michigan
Tulane at Duke (-7.5)
I don’t have the stats in front of me, but I would have to believe that G6 teams with low Stability Scores of 4 like Tulane going against returning P4 conference champion teams probably don’t fare that well. As it is, Tulane is usually far better when laying points than getting them. In fact, over the last three seasons, the Green Wave are only 3-6 ATS as underdogs. So while Tulane is quite unstable, Duke is in much better shape, bringing back 11 starters from their 9-5 ACC title team of a year ago. They also have a new transfer QB as the starter in Walker Eget from SJSU.
We know to play on any team with a stability score edge of 6+ in non-conference games in the first four weeks of the season (Weeks 0, 1, 2, 3), assuming the game does not have a point spread of -30 or higher for either team. (336-224 SU and 303-245-12 ATS, 55.3% since 2013). I personally also like the fact that this is a revenge game for Duke from last year’s 34-27 loss on the road. In that game, the Blue Devils outgained Tulane 452-426. Look for head coach Manny Diaz’s team to get some payback.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Duke -7.5 versus Tulane
Florida Atlantic (+26.5) at Florida
Besides being a nice stability system option, I wrote my reasons for thinking this could be FAU’s best team since the Lane Kiffin days in the VSiN CFB Betting Guide: Second-year head coach Zach Kittley’s first team at Florida Atlantic was, if nothing else, fun to watch. The Owls had the most offensive plays per game and the most passing yards per game in the country last year. However, they also led the nation in giveaways. Now, with a year in the new system under their belt, I see a lot of reasons for potential improvement.
QB Caden Veltkamp is back for his senior year after throwing for over 3600 yards last season along with 11 other starters. FAU qualified for three nice transition angles as well. The first test is a tough one, but if the Owls can score, which they should be able to, it will make things very difficult for the Gators to cover a hefty number. And while the Gators have a new coach, I can’t help but consider that Florida is just 9-19 (32.1%) ATS in Non-Conference games in the last seven seasons and just 10-19 ATS (34.5%) as a favorite since 2021.
College Football Best Bet: Everything I see tells me to back Florida Atlantic +26.5 in Gainesville
North Texas at Indiana (-40.5)
In any other era of college football history, could you imagine seeing a line of -40.5 going against a team that was 12-2 last season and led the nation in scoring? That’s what we are dealing with nowadays as unfortunately for fans of North Texas, that 2025 team was completely gutted, and oddsmakers have been less than kind about their prospects for 2026. In fact, in my season win total writeup, I suggested that setting a number like 5.5 for UNT was oddsmakers essentially telling us that it was look out below for this program; they are falling.
Of course, it doesn’t get any tougher than a season opener at the home of the defending national champs, and head coach Curt Cignetti’s team is not expected to miss a beat after replacing Heisman-winning QB Fernando Mendoza with veteran transfer Josh Hoover out of TCU. As you look at this huge number, remember that huge home favorites (-36 points or more) have been outstanding in FBS vs. FBS matchups in the opening week(s) of college football since 2013, going 24-0 SU and 18-6 ATS (75%)! Plus, Indiana is 16-4 (80%) ATS in their last 20 games as a 20+ point favorite.
College Football Best Bet: Look for Indiana (-40.5) to be conscious of the line as it lays the hammer
East Carolina at Alabama (-28.5)
This is one of the more stable Alabama programs in a while, as the Tide’s coaching staff is typically poached by other programs in the offseason, and a majority of the starters are off to the NFL. This year’s staff is intact, and there are 10 starters in place. And while head coach Kalen DeBoer will have to replace QB Ty Simpson, he has named redshirt freshman Keelon Russell as the starter. If you are unfamiliar with Russell, he is a former 5-star recruit and has earned the praise of former Tide head coach Nick Saban.
This is a stability score game since East Carolina is starting over everywhere except head coach in my stability variables. It isn’t often that Alabama is a stability play to back, and I think I will take advantage, especially since Alabama is on a 31-10 ATS (75.6%) surge at home. And while there is heavy DK action on the Tide, contrary to popular belief, majority handle bettors have been very good when getting behind huge home favorites, specifically those favored by 27.5 points or more. In most cases, I would fear this as a prototypical public bet, but these groups are 82-65 ATS (55.8%) over the last four seasons. This line looks manageable at -28.5, and I could easily see a 45-10 type of contest.
College Football Best Bet: It’s Alabama -28.5 at home versus ECU for me
Missouri State at Texas A&M (-40.5)
There is no bigger stability system mismatch than what will be happening in College Station on Saturday, and oddsmakers are right for attaching a massive spread to the contest. It was a solid first season at the FBS level and in Conference USA for Missouri State as the Bears won seven games and received a bowl bid, a game they would eventually lose to Arkansas State. Year 2 at college football’s top level looks to be a little more challenging, however, as the program moves on from Ryan Beard, the head coach of the last three years, who led them through a very successful transition. Casey Woods, who last served as SMU’s offensive coordinator, takes the reins in his first chance as a head coach. He inherits a team with a stability score of zero for the season. There is very little experience on the roster, including at QB, where Duke transfer Henry Belin is expected to take over as a senior, and he is guiding a program that generally overachieved last season.
Beating expectations by so big is a tough ask of any team. DraftKings sets the main win total line at 4.5. That might be overzealous, especially after a season in which the Bears won five games by 7 points or fewer. Close wins are often characterized as getting “lucky” over the course of a season. Well, teams that have a lot of them and then come back inexperienced are naturally expected to drop.
Meanwhile, Texas A&M has the most returning starters in the country, and teams with 17+ total returning starters are 108-89 SU and 108-87 ATS (55.4%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus teams returning 16 or fewer since 2021. Plus, this was game #1 on my list for CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #1: huge home favorites (-36 points or more) have been outstanding in FBS vs. FBS matchups in the opening week(s) of college football since 2013, going 24-0 SU and 18-6 ATS (75%)!
College Football Best Bet: Be not afraid of the big number; Texas A&M is more than -40.5 better
Northern Illinois at Iowa (total 44.5)
Talk about a challenging set of circumstances facing Rob Harley in 2026 for Northern Illinois. Not only is he a new head coach for the first time, but he is doing it under the tag of interim for 2026 and is guiding a team that is in a transition year to a new and more challenging conference. It wasn’t like the team he is taking over was elite last year. The Huskies finished 3-9 for former coach Thomas Hammock. I don’t know exactly what the most optimistic NIU fans are hoping for this fall, but it’s probably too much. The Phil Steele guide shows NIU with exactly zero players with starting experience on the roster for the defense this season. The offense scored just 17.1 PPG, so the fact that five starters are back from that unit, with another transferring in May, may or may not be a blessing. How are they going to put up anything on Iowa here?
For as much as everything is screaming at me to take the Hawkeyes, I can’t help but stare at significant trends showing NIU being outstanding on both the road and as an underdog. Until proven otherwise, I will not challenge. Instead, a look at the total suggests that oddsmakers are leading you to water on low-total games in Weeks 0/1, especially with bigger favorites, as in games with totals of 48.5 or less and a favorite of 4 points or more, Under the total is 51-23 (68.9%) since 2013. That fits this game, and with Iowa bringing in a new QB and five other offensive starters, I don’t see them lighting up the scoreboard.
College Football Best Bet: Let’s go UNDER 44.5 in NIU-Iowa
Wyoming at Colorado State (total 46.5)
For as much as I believe that Colorado State is going to be a much improved team and better coached team with Jim Mora, Jr., things do take time to set into place. Mora takes over a team with just one offensive starter with experience, and last year the program scored just 18.4 PPG. Of course, Mora’s UConn teams could score, so I don’t think this will be a completely bare cupboard out of the gate.
At the same time, Wyoming has been a team that has struggled to put up points for the last couple of seasons, scoring 19.5 and 16 PPG, respectively. Both years were under current head coach Jay Sawvel, so it seems he is perfectly fine with winning grind-it-out type of games. In fact, in the last two seasons, Wyoming’s average game has produced just 42 PPG, and just 36.5 PPG a year ago. Why would this year be any different, especially with just five returning players in starting spots? Play the way you are familiar with, I believe that is how most coaches approach it.
Hopefully you saw CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #9: Non-conference games between Group of 5 opponents featuring a home favorite have been unexpectedly lower scoring, producing 46 Unders, 27 Overs (63%) since 2013. In addition, the last four games between these programs have also seen sub-40 points produced, an average of 32.0.
College Football Best Bet: Let’s go UNDER 46.5 in Wyoming-Colorado State tilt
UCLA (-1.5) at California
UCLA going Over 6.5 wins this season was one of my favorite prop wagers. The 2025 UCLA team was a massive disappointment, particularly after landing QB Nico Iamaleava in the transfer portal. Nico was a lightning rod for the program and was vilified when the team struggled, praised during the shocking three-game Big Ten winning streak in October. This team will be way better coached now as former James Madison head coach Bob Chesney takes over and does get Iamaleava back for 2026, plus numerous Power 4 starters in as transfers. In all, this program is expected to have what amounts to 18 starting players filling spots for this fall, a lofty number in this day and age.
The first game is a decent test, but teams with 17+ total returning starters are 108-89 SU and 108-87 ATS (55.4%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus teams returning 16 or fewer since 2021. There is also a series trend showing Under the total is 12-1-1 in the Bruins-Golden Bears in-state rivalry since 2010. Why is that important to me as a Bruins’ backer? Well, Cal QB Sagapulotele is his team’s best hope, and if they can’t score well and force this into a shootout, I like UCLA’s chances even better.
College Football Best Bet: Give me UCLA -1.5 on the road at Cal
Boise State (+24.5) at Oregon
There is a key CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #3 that states to be careful with the P4 vs. G6 non-conference games in Week 0/1 when the P4 home favorite isn’t expected to overwhelm the opponent, as the visiting G6 teams have proven heavily motivated to cover point spreads in recent years. In fact, this trend has turned dramatically since 2023, as P4 home favorites of -30 or fewer points are 42-5 SU vs. G5 teams in weeks 0/1 but just 18-29 ATS (38.3%) over the last three seasons.
The line for this Boise State-Oregon clash is built entirely on the premise that Oregon is a national title contender with its premier QB back in the fold in Dante Moore. What seems to be getting completely ignored here is that Boise State is arguably the single best G6 team in all of college football and the overwhelming favorite in the newfound Pac-12. The Broncos are also relatively experienced, with 11 of their own starters back from last year’s 9-5 team, including senior QB Maddux Madsen.
There was a time when this BSU program was feared by the P4 teams and few would welcome them to town. This experienced Broncos group has the chance to restore that and put to rest a four-game SU and ATS season-opener losing skid. This is a very heavily-bet public game on Oregon too, with 90+% of the handle on the hosts. DK still isn’t moving off the number, and it doesn’t meet the criteria of 27.5 points to not worry about that either. I think Oregon wins, but not as easily as the “experts” project.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go with Boise State +24.5 at Oregon
Baylor (+7.5) at Auburn
In last year’s season-opening win at Baylor, Auburn gave up 483 yards of offense to the Bears yet won by 14. It sets up a nice revenge spot for the other side this week: Since the start of the 2016 season, neutral-field underdogs playing in revenge mode have gone 56-37 ATS (60.2%). I called on this last week with UNC, and it came through easily. This will be a different type of game than that one, as it figures to have more points, but let’s face it, Auburn has been an underachieving program for all of the last six seasons, and that doesn’t figure to change immediately, despite the excitement surrounding new head coach Alex Golesh’s arrival. He brings with him from South Florida his QB Byrum Brown and several other former G6-level starters.
On the other side, head coach Dave Aranda has a new QB too, a P4 transfer in DJ Lagway, a former five-star recruit hoping to find a better fit. He should help this offense put up a lot of points again. Joining him are several other P4 transfers on both sides of the ball. If you recall, new head coaches are 92-154 SU and 111-133 ATS (45.5%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus returning head coaches since 2021. This is just one of a few stability edges Baylor should enjoy, plus they are the team catching the points.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Baylor +7.5 as the neutral field dog to Auburn
Arkansas State (+11.5) at Memphis
I read somewhere this week that teams that played in Week 0 have about a 42% ATS cover rate against teams making their first game appearance in Week 1. On the surface, you would think it was the opposite, that the game experience would be so beneficial. However, it makes sense the other way too, in that the team that didn’t play has a huge scheming edge, as they have actual game film to pore over. That logic would benefit Arkansas State here as it takes on Memphis, who is fresh off a nice upset win at UNLV. Not only does this game fit that bill, but it also aligns with all of the stability system angles that I unveiled in the VSiN CFB Betting Guide.
There is also a respect mindset that the Tigers are going to have to overcome here, as last week they were disrespected and rallied around it. This week they are expected to win. How will they respond? Well, underdogs are 3-8 SU but 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 of the Red Wolves-Tigers series. Plus, ASU was 6-2 ATS as an underdog and could be a live one this week, coming off a 7-6 bowl game-winning season in 2025 and bringing back seven starters on offense.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll back Arkansas State +11.5 at Memphis
Sunday, September 6, 2026
Washington State at Washington (-23.5)
How much changeover can one program handle? We should be finding out the answer this year with Washington State as the Cougars begin their first season in the rebuilt Pac-12. They will do it with a new coaching staff, led by head coach Kirby Moore. He will be the program’s fifth different head coach since 2019. So far, the Cougars have been able to stave off the usual problems associated with such frequent transitions, but I think that could finally change this season, and this week in particular, as after finishing just two games different from one another last season, rival Washington is staked to a 23.5-point line on Sunday.
We know that new head coaches are 92-154 SU and 111-133 ATS (45.5%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus returning head coaches since 2021, and new defensive coordinators are 167-198 SU and 165-195 ATS (45.8%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus returning defensive coordinators since 2021. However, I think we also need to consider how good the Huskies have been at home under head coach Jedd Fisch, going 8-2 as home chalk in his two seasons.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll back Washington -23.5 on Sunday
Wisconsin at Notre Dame (-20.5)
It was 10 years ago when Wisconsin last played at Lambeau Field and hosted an elite program in LSU, eventually pulling a memorable upset in that contest. I hate to say it, but this Badgers team is nowhere close to the level of that one. That team went on to win 11 games, and followed that up with a record 13-win season a year later. This one is coming off two seasons winning a combined nine games, and while the prospects might be brighter for 2026 than they were a year ago, I don’t think opening the schedule against what could be the nation’s most complete team is what head coach Luke Fickell was hoping for.
The Irish are loaded on both sides of the ball with 17 starters back, and we know that teams with 17+ total returning starters are 108-89 SU and 108-87 ATS (55.4%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus teams returning 16 or fewer since 2021. I also showed readers in my Weeks 0/1 concepts article that the most small of favorites and hefty favorites win the early neutral field showdowns between non-conference Power 4 foes, as those laying less 3.5 points or fewer are on a 11-4 SU and 10-4-1 ATS (71.4%) run since 2013, while those laying 12.5 points or more have gone 13-0 SU and 10-3 ATS (76.9%) in that same time frame.
Unfortunately for Wisconsin, this spot fits perfectly into two tendencies in which Notre Dame has thrived lately. Notre Dame is 39-19 ATS (67.2%) for +18.1 units in road/neutral games since 2017, and Notre Dame is 37-17 ATS (68.5%) for +18.3 units as a favorite since 2021. With national title aspirations, head coach Marcus Freeman’s team needs to roll, and the Badgers could be the opening victim just standing in the way.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Notre Dame -20.5 to roll in Green Bay
Monday, September 7, 2026
SMU at Florida State (total 53.5)
As system bettors know, the best way to play a system in which you really believe in is to play all of the games that meet the requirements. Well, I can tell that this one makes a lot of sense to me because the stakes are higher, the teams are familiar with one another, and in most cases, defenses hold the edge over offenses when it comes to executing early in the transfer portal era. Here is the system: Week 0/1 games between P4 conference opponents in Weeks 0/1 have been ridiculously low scoring since 2021, producing 15 Unders, 6 Overs (71.4% Under) and 46.6 PPG on average since 2021.
Well, SMU isn’t a team that was impacted a whole lot by transfers in the offseason, so should be solid on both sides of the ball. Host Florida State, with new QB transfer Ashton Daniels, can’t afford to let this one get too high-scoring, in my opinion. The Seminoles certainly won’t be able to keep up against a Mustangs defense that held seven of eight ACC opponents to 24 points or fewer. The total is set at 53.5, and over 80% of the handle and bets are on the Over. What could go wrong on a stand-alone Monday night showdown?
College Football Best Bet: Give me UNDER 53.5 in SMU-FSU
For more Week 1 college football picks and predictions, visit the VSiN Week 1 College Football Hub.
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