College Football Week 2 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
I had a pretty decent Week 1 college football Best Bet performance, going 12-8-1 ATS on the games I played. I realize 21 games is a lot to offer up “best” bets on, but like the NFL this week, I had a lot of time to study the season openers for most teams, and thus was able to form definitive opinions over the last few months. You will see in the coming weeks that my number of games played will be going down. In fact, for this week, I’ve dropped down to 18 games.
That said, as we move on to Week 2, my season record is 15-11-1 ATS (57.7%). There are some big ones on the board for Saturday, including Ohio State/Texas, plus some ranked teams like Oregon, Oklahoma, Alabama, Tennessee, and Texas Tech going on the road for potentially tricky and underrated games. It should be a solid week all around. Let’s take a look at the games I have in mind for my Best Bets this week, with my primary opinions coming off the data in the VSiN College Football Analytics Report.
Friday, September 11, 2026
Rutgers at Boston College (-3.5)
When you look closely at the two games these East Coast teams played last week, you realize that the Rutgers loss to UMass was no accident and that Boston College probably deserved a better score result than it wound up with. For that reason and others, I believe the right team is favored for their Friday night tilt. On top of that, the line has moved from BC -3 to -3.5 at DraftKings despite 84% of the handle being on the underdog Scarlet Knights.
In Rutgers’ terrible loss to UMass, the lines upfront were outplayed on both sides of the ball, and the defense allowed 397 yards and 6.3 yards per play. Now, as the Knights try to rebound, they square off with this system: Teams that lose in a college football game as favorites of 19.5-points or more have gone just 43-71 SU and 41-69-4 ATS (37.3%) in the follow-up contest since 2012. BC was beaten by Cincy handily on the scoreboard but outgained the Bearcats 388-339. Head coach Bill O’Brien’s offense played quite well behind QB Mason McKenzie in his first FBS start after transferring from Saginaw Valley. There is also an interesting and wrong perception that head coach Greg Schiano’s team is a pesky underdog. No, they are 18-23-3 ATS in the dog role under him, and 21-31-3 ATS over the last seven seasons.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Boston College -3.5 on Friday night
Saturday, September 12, 2026
Oregon (-23.5) at Oklahoma State
I called the Oregon-Boise State game pretty accurately last week, as I knew the Broncos had the chance to be a live underdog and felt that oddsmakers put too much pressure on the Ducks with a ridiculous point spread. The good news for Oregon, and QB Dante Moore, who struggled, is they survived and lived to fight another day. That first day comes Saturday at Oklahoma State, a team in complete rebuild mode and looked as unstable as their 0 score described.
This game is therefore one of the Stability System mismatches for the week, and we know to Play On any team with a STABILITY SCORE EDGE of 6+ in non-conference games in the first four weeks of the season (Weeks 0, 1, 2, 3), assuming the game does not have a point spread of -30 or higher for either team. (344-231 SU and 310-253-12 ATS, 55.1% since 2013). The tight win for Oregon also puts them in a favorable spot according to this angle: Ranked teams coming off a close win of 7 points or fewer where they didn’t cover the point spread are on a 224-53 SU and 158-116-3 ATS (57.7%) surge when favored in the next game since October of 2015. OSU ran almost 90 plays on offense last week in catch-up mode versus Tulsa. That gives Oregon a lot of chances to separate here.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go with Oregon -23.5 to rebound versus OSU
Old Dominion at Virginia Tech (-19.5)
It was just about a year ago that everything changed for the Virginia Tech football program. After a stunning 45-26 home upset loss to Old Dominion, the program fired Brent Pry and set in motion the process of hiring James Franklin and preparing for a rebuild that kicked off successfully last week. Franklin brought in an entirely new group of players, many highly rated transfers, and they opened the new era with a 73-3 win over VMI. While the quality of the opponent is certainly debatable, the level of domination was not, as VMI gained just 83 yards, including -4 on the ground on 43 attempts!
It was one of five games that qualified for this angle last week, which is in play again here: Teams with 17+ total returning starters are 113-89 SU and 112-88-2 ATS (56%) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus teams returning 16 or fewer since 2021 (5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS last week). The degree of that shellacking also qualifies Virginia Tech for this nice system: Over the course of the last thirteen years, CFB teams that scored 58 or more points in a game while allowing fewer than 10 have carried on the momentum well in the next outing, going 151-113 ATS (57.2%). Considering the revenge aspect from last year, and Franklin’s solid records in non-conference games and when favored at Penn State, I think we have the makings for a rout.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go with Virginia Tech -19.5 over ODU
Penn State at Temple (+23.5)
Penn State made me and many other prognosticators look really bad last week as they throttled Marshall in a game that was never even competitive. That said, oddsmakers have exploited that result in creating a line for this week’s follow-up game versus in-state foe Temple. The Nittany Lions are set at 23.5-point favorites, which would correspond to a power rating move of almost 10 points off of last week’s win according to my numbers, which were dead on last week.
I never move a team more than 5 points for any given performance. Naturally, the betting public is all over PSU here, with 98% of the handle as of Thursday afternoon. One of my long-running DK betting splits systems shows that when the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group is just 370-411 ATS (47.4%). Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are most often the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer.
This is also a Stability Mismatch System play, and we all know that angle has been about 55% for the last 13 seasons. The Stability edge goes to Temple in this case, as the Owls return 10 starters from their 5-7 team of a year ago, and are off a 38-14 win against Rhode Island, in which they gained over 6.0 yards per play. I like their chances to make this game closer than the experts behind the counter and the betting public think.
College Football Best Bet: It’s Temple +23.5 for me against Penn State
Western Kentucky (+40.5) at Georgia
Last week the trend was almost overbearing, as the most mainstream sources lamented that Georgia teams under Kirby Smart never covered big point spreads. On X, I warned people that Tennessee State could be the worst team Georgia had ever faced during that brutal ATS skid, and it would take work for the Bulldogs to not cover. My power ratings had UGA -64.7, and at the time I commented, the line was only -46.5. It might be the biggest edge I’ve ever had in that regard, and yet, I refused to adjust. The line ended up at -49.5, and Smart’s team covered easily, seemingly breaking the hex on the big chalk trend? Or did they just set themselves up to resume it this week against Western Kentucky?
My PR for this one shows UGA -36.7. The public is all in on Georgia and its ability to crush teams now. They are all against WKU after getting whipped 49-14 at Nevada. Here’s the thing I’m looking at. This game more closely resembles the typical contests that Georgia has failed to cover as a huge favorite. In fact, they are on a 0-7 ATS skid in FBS non-conference games as a favorite of -36.5 or more. The underlying stat missed in the Hilltoppers’ 49-14 loss in Reno last week is that they still gained 367 yards of offense, and QB Rodney Tisdale looked comfortable running the offense. Plus, how do you ignore a huge favorite team getting 97% of the handle and 92% of the bets at DraftKings?
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go with Western Kentucky to cover the +40.5
California at Syracuse (-3.5)
In my season win total wagers for this season, I had this to say about Syracuse: There are a lot of reasons why teams can yo-yo from one season to the next nowadays in college football. Losing a lot of key players from a successful team the prior year is at the top of the list for why teams might drop. That clearly affected Syracuse in 2025, as the Orange went from 10-3 to 3-9. Turnovers can also be big, and they were for ‘Cuse last season. However, in the “there’s nowhere to go but up category,” since 2021, there have been 21 teams that have won four or fewer games in a season while enduring a -0.8 or worse turnover ratio. Only 2 of those 21 teams regressed. The average win improvement for the other 19 teams was 2.3 per season, and the SU win % upgrade was 15.3%.
Overall, recruiting at Syracuse has seen an upgrade under Fran Brown, who begins his third season with the program. He’s clearly a strong salesman, as he landed the second-highest-rated class the Orange have seen in the last 17 years, despite coming off a 3-9 record. With QB Steve Angeli back for his senior season, and the ACC looking down for 2026, I think the Orange have a good chance to rebound. Well, they got off to a great start last week, walloping New Hampshire 66-3 while putting up 514 yards of offense. That game lines up the Orange for this solid system: Over the last thirteen years, CFB teams that scored 58 or more points in a game while allowing fewer than 10 have carried that momentum into the next outing, going 151-113 ATS (57.2%). On the other sideline, Cal was beaten handily by UCLA 45-24 in a game that could have been much worse. Now the Golden Bears have to travel cross-country and play in their first domed games in who knows how long. The line is modest too.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go with Syracuse -3.5 to continue the rebound season
Maryland at Connecticut
UConn’s 56-7 win last week, which featured 671 yards of offense, didn’t really give us a chance to measure the program’s instability for this season. Recall that the Huskies were one of several teams with scores of ZERO on that metric heading into 2026. Here is the first matchup in which they will be staring the Stability System in the face: Play on any team with a STABILITY SCORE EDGE of 6+ in non-conference games in the first four weeks of the season (weeks 0, 1, 2, 3), assuming the game does not have a point spread of -30 or higher for either team. (344-231 SU and 310-253-12 ATS, 55.1% since 2013), including 8-7 SU and 7-8 ATS last week.
Of course, Maryland had an arguably better performance in its Week 1 win over Hampton, winning 62-0, and setting up this nice angle: Over the course of the last thirteen years, CFB teams that scored 58 or more points in a game while allowing fewer than 10 have carried on the momentum well in the next outing, going 151-113 ATS (57.2%). Looking at trends, Maryland is 19-9 (67.9%) ATS in its last 28 Non-Conference games. With the rigors of the Big Ten slate, the Terps have to win these games. I’m also curious why this line keeps climbing toward Maryland.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll grab the Maryland -13.5 point spread while it’s still there
Texas San-Antonio (+1.5) at Texas State
Texas State has not been your average Group of 6 team lately, known for putting up points and being quite competitive against virtually all competition. The record over the last three years is an impressive 23-16. That’s why it was somewhat surprising to see Texas have such an easy time taking down the Bobcats last week, 59-7. The struggles could continue for TSU if this system holds against UTSA: Home cooking not enough to revive struggling offense: Teams that scored 10 points or fewer in their season-opening losses of 17-points or more have responded with just a 49-63-2 ATS (43.8%) record when playing at home in game #2 over the last decade-plus.
One of Texas State’s better wins last year came at UTSA and the Alamodome, setting up a nice revenge spot for the Roadrunners: Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been successful, going 230-182 ATS (55.8%) since 2016. From a line perspective, we also have a trend showing UTSA is 16-7 (69.6%) ATS in the last 23 as a single-digit underdog. Head coach Jeff Traylor’s team wasn’t really tested last week but does have a senior QB back in Owen McCown and should be a live dog here.
College Football Best Bet: Give me UTSA +1.5 on the road at Texas State
Eastern Michigan (+17.5) at Michigan State
After a solid Week 0 performance against Sacramento State, Eastern Michigan blew a chance at 2-0 when it lost at home to San Jose State. Of course, for those of us in the know on team tendencies, we have been waiting on this week for the Eagles, as it’s their first game on the road: Eastern Michigan is 42-21 (66.7%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2016. That is a crazy trend in this day and age, and it gives them a great chance to be competitive against a Michigan State team that is 2-11-1 ATS at home the last two seasons.
The Spartans are in a new era, however, and head coach Pat Fitzgerald does seem to have brought some spark, but MSU was still very fortunate to get a late 50+ yard field goal and push on the number last week vs. Toledo. The Rockets are in rebuild mode too; EMU isn’t. Besides being a Stability System mismatch game for me, EMU is also getting backed by 75% of the handle at DK, and if you know the system, that shouldn’t worry you: When a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 154-138-1 ATS (52.7%). This is a pretty good percentage for a high-volume simple based system that goes against the grain.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll ride Eastern Michigan +17.5 here in East Lansing
Mississippi State at Minnesota (-1.5)
Since opening earlier in the week, Minnesota has rightfully moved from a home underdog to home favorite. It could be because the initial line seemed like a massive overreach based upon Mississippi State’s 62-point, 762-yard season-opening win over ULM. Or it could be because despite MSU’s huge win, Minnesota was getting backed by 74% of the handle at DraftKings. Again, that money disparity shouldn’t worry you since, when a 68%+ majority of the handle was on small home favorites of 7 points or fewer for an ATS wager since the start of the 2023 season, this majority group is 84-66 ATS (56%). Bettors are wisely valuing home-field advantage in these games that are expected to be competitive.
Getting back to the Bulldogs’ incredible offensive outburst last week, they are going to have to overcome this angle: FBS teams that gain 735 or more yards offensively in their prior game have gone just 32-47 ATS (40.5%) in the follow-up contest since 2012. I’ve detailed MSU’s win last week enough, but what about the Gophers? They were pretty good themselves, beating Eastern Illinois 59-7 behind a 495-110 yardage edge. This system says we should ride teams off uber-dominant performances: Over the last 13 years, CFB teams that scored 58 or more points in a game while allowing fewer than 10 have carried that momentum into the next outing, going 151-113 ATS (57.2%). Let’s not overlook the fact that the age of SEC dominating the Big Ten is long gone.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll take Minnesota -1.5 here at home
Alabama (-10.5) at Kentucky
It was quite an opener for Alabama and new QB Keelon Russell, who looked very dynamic and capable of becoming a household name for this storied program over the next few years. Of course, beating East Carolina handily while outgaining them 487-162 is one thing. Winning and covering on the road as a double-digit favorite in SEC play is a whole other challenge. Are the Tide up for it? Is Kentucky not nearly as bad as thought to be this season after a 45-13 win over Youngstown State kicked off the head coach Will Stein era? Well, I have to say yes to Alabama being up for it, not yet for determining whether or not UK is going to be better than advertised.
This game reminds me of a few years ago in Lexington, when Alabama was en route to a CFP berth and favored by 11 at Kentucky, with a multi-threat athlete at QB in Jalen Milroe. That Tide team won easily 49-21. That game was part of a 7-1 ATS road team run in this head-to-head series. I can see a game here where the Wildcats are competitive in the first half but wither in the second. There is a reason Stein’s team is picked at or near the bottom of the SEC this year.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll take Alabama -10.5 at Kentucky
UNLV (-3) at North Texas
In what could have easily been another tough spot for UNLV and a potential 0-2 start under heavy expectations, the Runnin’ Rebels responded nicely, particularly on defense, shutting down Hawaii 24-6. That game was on the road, and as we probably all know, Hawaii has a tremendous recent history of playing outstanding football in the conference home underdog role. Instead, it was UNLV which leaned on its recent strong trends of being good when favored and solid on the road. In fact, UNLV is now on a 25-11 ATS surge in road/neutral games as it heads to North Texas for another supposedly high-profile G6 game. Oh, and by the way, UNLV is also on runs of 17-0 ATS road vs. non-conference and 24-12 ATS when following up an outright win.
North Texas is off a 52-16 loss at Indiana, nothing really to be ashamed of since a lot of the points for the Hoosiers came late and UNT did cover at +40.5. That said, how does a team in a massive rebuild for this season go from +40.5 one week against a top P4 team to just +3 against one of the best G6 teams? The line for this one should be somewhere in between, and my Power Ratings indicate the correct number is UNLV -6.9. The Mean Green have struggled after losses lately too, going 2-6 ATS in the last eight in that spot. Plus, this is a Stability edge game, and we know to Play Against any college football teams with STABILITY SCORES of 0-6 in non-conference games in the first four weeks of the season (Weeks 0, 1, 2, 3) versus teams with higher scores, assuming the game does not have a point spread of -30 or higher for either team (Fade record 269-146 SU and 226-184-4 ATS, 55.1% since 2013). UNT is a ZERO score.
College Football Best Bet: I got UNLV -3 to take care of business at North Texas
Tulsa (-14) at Sam Houston State
Can you imagine how much a win like last week at home against Oklahoma State does for a hungry program like Tulsa and second-year head coach Tre Lamb? The Golden Hurricane were expected to be better this season and, in fact, were projected eighth out of the 14 teams in the American Conference this year by Phil Steele. Was the upset of OSU earned? Can Tulsa be counted on to take care of business this week in a spot in which it is favored heavily? I’m going to say yes and yes.
The numbers last week tell the story, as Tulsa held a 6.3 to 4.3 edge in yards per play over the Cowboys (as a 14-point dog, mind you) and forced four turnovers. Going back to last season, that marks their third outright upset win in four games, with two of them being by double-digit lines. The OSU win might have been the program’s biggest since upsetting Houston in 2022 to clinch a bowl bid in the season finale. This team has momentum and now hits the road where it is 27-15-1 (64.3%) ATS in road/neutral games over the last six seasons. Did I mention that they are taking on the team projected to finish last in the worst conference in the country, Sam Houston State?
College Football Best Bet: I’ll ride Tulsa -14 here on the road at SHSU
Iowa State at Iowa (-14)
Regardless of how Iowa State started its season by beating SEMO last week, I am sticking to my guns in what I see for the Cyclones this year as new head coach Jimmy Rogers, last out of Washington State, starts his first season here essentially from scratch. On the roster are only two players on each side of the ball with any FBS starting experience, and one is a transfer QB Jalen Raynor from a Sun Belt program. It could be a very long year in Ames.
There were always going to be a couple of probable wins on the non-conference slate, but at this point, there is a line of teams getting ready to pounce on a formerly prominent program in transition. At the head of that line is rival Iowa, who has lost back-to-back years to ISU by a combined total of 4 points. This matchup between the two is the biggest mismatch in perceived strength of the teams in several years, and I expect a hungry Iowa team to take advantage of their stability edge: Play On any team with a STABILITY SCORE EDGE of 6+ in non-conference games in the first four weeks of the season (Weeks 0, 1, 2, 3), assuming the game does not have a point spread of -30 or higher for either team. (344-231 SU and 310-253-12 ATS, 55.1% since 2013).
College Football Best Bet: I’ll back Iowa -14 in a rare lopsided game in its rivalry with Iowa State
Louisiana Tech (+35.5) at LSU
LSU might have had the best performance of Week 1, at least compared to expectations. That is a full-fledged recipe on how to get overpriced the next week. Yes, Lane Kiffin’s team is talented and showed some moxie last week, but again, I have to stick to my 25+ year formula of never adjusting a team more than 5 points on power rating from one game’s result. According to this week’s line, which shows LSU -35.5, the Tigers were adjusted at least 8 points after the rout of Clemson.
Making matters worse, the betting public at DK is all over LSU, with 99% of the handle and 98% of the bets on that side of the ledger. Perhaps they have forgotten that LSU is one of the teams with a Stability score of just 3 this season, or that the Tigers could have one of the worst cases of look ahead ever, as Kiffin and his crew head back to Oxford next week to take on Ole Miss. Or in all likelihood, they have missed the key betting system in play for this game saying to ride teams off of uber-dominant performances: Over the course of the last 13 years, CFB teams that scored 58 or more points in a game while allowing fewer than 10 have carried on the momentum well in the next outing, going 151-113 ATS (57.2%). No, this system is not on LSU; it is on Louisiana Tech, who blasted Northwestern State last week 80-6. How many teams ever go from a 72-point win to a 35.5-point underdog in one week?
College Football Best Bet: Give me Louisiana Tech +35.5 to sneak in a cover here
Ohio State at Texas (-1.5)
For this week’s massive game, I have to go back to my VSiN College Football Guide win total prop writeups and my national title predictions, which both expressed a ton of belief in what Texas has built for 2026. Among the key points I noted, the pressure on Texas and QB Arch Manning last year was palpable. You could sense it every time they took the field. Expectations were beyond reasonable control. The fact that the Longhorns still won 10 games despite a 5-7-1 ATS record shows just how much even the experts behind the bookmaking counter thought of this group.
Well, they say that all is well that ends well, and head coach Steve Sarkisian’s team won its final three games of 2025 and Manning exploded statistically in those contests. The offense put up 456 yards in the bowl win over Michigan. That is the momentum they will be carrying into 2026. In addition, a program that achieved its first-ever #1 recruiting ranking in the country on record last year, then followed it up with a #3 rank, seems due for lofty goals. The Longhorns started the season with a resounding 59-7 rout of a well-respected Texas State team. Over the last 13 years, CFB teams that scored 58 or more points in a game while allowing fewer than 10 have carried on the momentum well in the next outing, going 151-113 ATS (57.2%). Ohio State also started the season in dominant fashion, but no one else accused Ball State of being well-respected heading into this year. Don’t forget, as we have our first matchup of ranked teams, that in games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 221-115 SU and 192-135-9 ATS (58.7%).
College Football Best Bet: Texas -1.5 takes the rematch with Ohio State
Texas Tech at Oregon State (Total 53.5)
Texas Tech is a 26.5-point favorite at Oregon State on Saturday, which leads me to believe the experts behind the counter expect the Red Raiders to put up some points. However, I was impressed with the Beavers’ offensive effort last week at Houston, a team that had nine experienced starters in place after allowing just 22.8 PPG last year. OSU had 402 yards in the contest, including 376 from QB Braden Atkinson, a transfer from FCS Mercer, who showed he could handle a high-level Big 12 defense.
Am I ready to go against the grain here and back the Beavers, going against my Stability System? Heck no, but they are 10-4 ATS as a home dog since 2020, so I do think they will compete and will have to do so with offense. Hence, I’m logging a play on the Over 53.5, a bet getting plenty of support from DraftKings bettors. No worries, though, as since the start of the 2022 season, majority handle bettors have been quite sharp in two different contrarian ways for betting totals in Non-Conference games. When all majorities have favored Unders in totals of 55 or higher, they have gone 45-29 (60.8%). When greater than 80% majorities have gotten behind Overs for totals of less than 55, they’ve gone 61-35 (63.5%). These are very good performance levels, again going against the grain.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Over 53.5 in Texas Tech-Oregon State
Charlotte at Ole Miss (Total 60.5)
Although I could see the logic in doing so, I am not going to be talked into betting Charlotte+47.5 against Ole Miss, even though the Rebels are facing the same dreadful lookahead danger that LSU is for next week’s massive showdown in Oxford. Any team that loses to a FCS foe in Week 1 by allowing 43 points just simply shouldn’t be trusted. The Rebels are off an explosive game of their own, surviving Louisville 41-38 on a last-second field goal. So, after both teams were involved in games featuring at least 79 points last week, why am I leaning towards an Under 60.5?
This is simply a totally different game, one in which I expect Ole Miss to flex its muscles early, then kill the clock with its running game and defense in the second half. It seems a lot of the sharps have the same feeling as me, as 96% of the handle is on the Under. It is a rare spot, though: The average college football total has steadied at about 53. In games since the start of the 2022 season where the totals reached 59 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 67-51 (56.8%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 118 of 3173 games.
College Football Best Bet: Give me UNDER 60.5 in Charlotte-Ole Miss
For more Week 2 college football best bets, visit the Week 2 College Football Hub, exclusively on VSiN.com.
ROBERT FERRINGO has posted three straight winning college seasons and is hitting 65% over the last three years (52-28) on his college football plays rated 4.0+, turning those tickets into +9,250 in profit. Last year he went 14-6 (70%), +4,330 on his college football plays rated 4.0+ and he is 37-18 (67%), +8,300 on those plays since the start of the 2024 season. Access their premium picks at Doc’s Sports with a free $60 new member account. Get your free trial here!
