Tuley’s Takes – Week 2 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:
Well, the highly anticipated college football Week 1 was a huge disappointment in the Tuley’s Takes home office last weekend. I went a dismal 0-4 ATS with my supposed “Best Bets” on Liberty +6.5 (missed by a half-point in a 20-13 loss at James Madison for the closest I came to a win or push), Arkansas State +11.5, Clemson +10,5 and Central Michigan +10.5. It hasn’t been the best start of the season for underdog bettors, as I wrote on my @ViewFromVegas account on Twitter/X that Top 25 favorites are 24-0 straight-up so far this season (so not a single outright upset yet) and 15-9 ATS (62.5%).
At least I went 12-4 ATS in the pro football preseason and then started the NFL regular season with a winner on New England +3.5 at Seattle in the Wednesday night opener (the rest of my NFL Week 1 takes are here), but let’s get back to college football. Hopefully my dogs will fare better now with a game under their belt. Hopefully.
Michigan (+5.5) vs. Oklahoma
Last week, all four of our underdogs were on the road. We hoped that helped them get more point-spread value, but it didn’t. We love that we’re getting the Wolverines here as home dogs, especially with coach Kyle Whittingham at 24-8-1 ATS (75%) as a dog coming off an ATS loss, according to frequent VSiN guest Marc Lawrence of playbooksports.com. Lawrence also points out that Oklahoma is in a 5-14 SU and 6-12-1 ATS (33%) spot as a Game 2 team coming off a shutout win that is facing a foe that won its previous game but lost ATS. But my main reason for taking Michigan is a lot of people are fading them after their second-chance Hail Mary win over Western Michigan. Whittingham will have his players’ complete attention (plus being good as a dog off a loss or subpar performance), and they’ll be in another close game, but now this time getting points and anything over a FG is a play for me.
College Football Best Bet: Michigan +5.5 or better
California (+3.5) at Syracuse
Syracuse routed New Hampshire 66-3 in their season opener, but I don’t put too much stock in Power 5 teams vs. FCS schools (formerly Division I-AA). Cal got in a shootout with UCLA before losing 45-24 as Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele threw for 271 yards and two TDs. He threw two INTs in the fourth quarter as the Bruins shut out the Golden Bears 21-0 in the final quarter to break open a 24-24 game, so we just need Sagapolutele to put together a complete game. Cal’s defense also has to play better for us, but the offense should be able to match the Orange score for score as long as they clean up the turnovers.
College Football Best Bet: California +3.5
Minnesota (+1) vs. Mississippi State
Both teams romped in their opener against inferior opponents, with Mississippi State annihilating UL-Monroe 62-13 and Minnesota routing Eastern Illinois 59-7. I’ll again take the home dog; the only reason I see why the Bulldogs are favored is they’re from the SEC. Both teams have strong QBs, but I’ll take Drake Lindsey (2,382 passing yards as a freshman last year with 18 TD passes and just six INTs). He also has RB Darius Taylor (three TDs in the opener) to take the pressure off him and the better defense. We’re obviously calling for the minor upset with the low spread.
College Football Best Bet: Minnesota +1.5
Iowa State (+14.5) at Iowa
This is one of those nonconference in-state rivalries we see every year, and I just don’t think there’s more than a two-touchdown difference between these two Corn Belt teams. Heck, Iowa State has pulled upsets the last two years and won three of the last four meetings, so I really think this line is inflated. Besides, does Iowa suddenly have a high-scoring offense based just on its 40-0 rout of my alma mater, Northern Illinois, in the opener? I wouldn’t put too much stock in that either. Iowa obviously has a top defense and will probably rank in the Top 20 for scoring defense for the 12th straight year, but Iowa State’s D also looked good in its opener with six sacks and three takeaways. This could be similar to last year’s 16-13 game, so again we’ll gladly take the two-touchdown head start.
College Football Best Bet: Iowa State +14.5
For more Week 2 college football picks and predictions, visit the Week 2 College Football Hub exclusively on VSiN.com.
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