College Football Week 4 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
I had a nice Week 3 on my Best Bets, though a few bad lines on the DraftKings feed at the time of my sections cost me a couple wins. Hopefully, as smart bettors, you are taking the best lines you can get from multiple sources. Every bettor has to. I am left to pick against numbers set by DK only on Wednesdays. In any case, against the numbers I picked, I was 9-7-1 ATS, bringing my season record to 30-24-2 ATS (55.5%). If you did get the best numbers available at kickoff, you could have been 12-5 ATS with my suggestions. For this week, we have a huge board, highlighted by five different games featuring ranked vs. ranked opponents. That set of games produced valuable nuggets to use in this week’s VSiN College Football Analytics Report, and since I rely on that piece extensively to build my Best Bets column, you can rest assured some of those games and ranked-vs.-ranked trends will be included below. So enjoy the analysis and good luck with your Week 4 CFB betting!
Friday, September 25, 2026
Northwestern (+21) at Indiana
Although Indiana is 3-0 and has outscored opponents 146-16 so far, I still don’t feel like the defending champs are clicking on all cylinders. For one, you have to question the early-season schedule, which ranks 202nd out of 266 Division 1 teams right now in terms of difficulty. As a sign of how they might be underachieving, besides the 0-3 ATS mark, their Effective Strength Ratings on my scale is 36.2, which would be equivalent to 5 points below their power rating. In other words, they are truly not playing as well as they are being perceived now.
Does that mean trouble for them on Friday night against a Northwestern team that is 2-0 SU and ATS and looked real strong last week in routing Colorado? Well, maybe not to win the game, but covering, that could be a different story. Historically, it hasn’t been great to back big home ranked favorites in conference play: Ranked home favorites of more than 14 points are 355-28 SU but just 168-211-4 ATS (44.3%) versus unranked conference opponents since October 2015.
There is also a nice system on this week’s Analytics Report indicating that this game should go Under, which to me means that we shouldn’t expect Indiana to hit the 35-40 point mark, thus reducing the chances of an easy win. The Wildcats are typically a pesky underdog and should come to compete on Friday night.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Northwestern +21 at Indiana
Saturday, September 26, 2026
UCLA (-1.5) at Maryland
I have been backing UCLA pretty consistently early on, and I don’t think the 3-0 SU and ATS start is a fluke. The Bruins are talent-loaded with a lot of starting experience, much of which was from transfers from Power 4 schools. They are also much better coached this season than in prior years, with head coach Bob Chesney having come over from James Madison.
Comparing this year’s start to last year’s for UCLA, they opened the season 0-4 in 2025 before getting a first win. In those four games, they scored 57 points (14.3 PPG). In the first three games this season, they are averaging 41.7 PPG. QB Nico Iamaleava, last year’s lightning rod for fans, has been good but not elite to start the season, and I think he can do more. With conference play starting, this is a perfect time for him to come up big.
And while I know this is a difficult travel circumstance for Maryland, having to play cross-country in the early time slot on Saturday, recent history in the Big Ten shows that this conference’s road favorites of -4 or less have gone 25-10 SU and 23-12 ATS (65.7%) in league play since 2021. Maryland comes in off a loss to Virginia Tech and is riding an 8-game conference losing skid. This number should probably be higher, closer to the -3.4 my Effective Strength Ratings say it should be.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go with UCLA -1.5 at Maryland
Wake Forest at Louisville (-12.5)
Despite taking down SMU last week and also almost upsetting Ole Miss earlier, I still feel like Louisville isn’t getting the respect it deserves at this point. In fact, my Power Ratings for this game against Wake Forest indicate the line should be -16, not -12.5. The Cardinals have always been a strong offensive team under head coach Jeff Brohm, but this year they may be taking it to a new level, as in the games against SMU and Ole Miss, they put up 79 points, keeping up with what figures to be two of the better offenses in the country, two teams with elite dual-threat QBs.
Considering that Wake Forest allowed 36 points to Purdue and 24 in the first half last week versus Miami, I’m pretty confident Brohm’s team will put up a healthy number here. Wake could also have a bit of a hangover effect from its loss to the Hurricanes, since teams coming off a home loss to a top-10-ranked team are just 137-147 SU and 125-157-2 ATS (44.3%) in the next game since October of 2016. The last time these teams played was in 2022, in Louisville, and the host Cardinals thrashed #10 Wake 48-21.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Louisville -12.5 to win handily versus Wake Forest
Iowa at Michigan (-5.5)
I know this game appears on my list of top discrepancies between Effective Yards Per Play Stats and Power Ratings in favor of Iowa, but I can’t help thinking most of Michigan’s terrible statistical numbers came in their first 2-1/2 games. I really think the Wolverines found something last Saturday in the second half versus UTEP, and I expect them to carry that momentum into this Big Ten opener.
It certainly has not been easy for new head coach Kyle Whittingham’s team, but they have weathered the storm and are 3-0. In this huge game versus Iowa, the Big House figures to be a huge edge for Michigan: In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 225-115 SU and 194-137-9 ATS (58.6%). From a trend perspective, Michigan is also 13-8 ATS in its last 21 games vs. Big Ten foes after a home win, and 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Iowa. The Hawkeyes are also off to a pretty good start, but the opposition so far leaves a lot to be desired. The first two games (NIU and ISU) were against two of the biggest rebuild programs over the offseason, and UNI is a mid-tier FCS team. I haven’t seen anything to believe this Iowa team is any different.
College Football Best Bet: That has me leaning on Michigan -5.5 to beat Iowa
James Madison (-6) at Old Dominion
It sure doesn’t seem like James Madison has missed a beat with head coach Billy Napier taking over for Bob Chesney this season. In fact, if anything, the Dukes might actually be better than recent seasons. They are 3-0 SU and ATS to date as they commence their conference season with a date at Old Dominion. The line certainly doesn’t look insurmountable either, as JMU is just a 6-point road favorite to an ODU team that is having a hard time living up to the standard it set last year with QB Colton Joseph. He is off to Wisconsin now, and the offense has put up just 23 Effective points per game. That is about half of what they were averaging last year at this time.
The line doesn’t look like a concern either, since road favorites in the -3.5 to -10 range in Sun Belt conference games are 69-30 SU and 59-40 (59.6%) ATS since 2015. As a program, James Madison is also 32-18 (64%) ATS as a favorite since 2020, while Old Dominion is 12-26 (31.6%) ATS at home since 2019. My Power Ratings indicate the lien is exactly where it should be, but my Effective Strength Ratings indicate JMU should easily be a double-digit favorite after these two teams’ respective starts.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll lean with James Madison (-5.5) to put another solid effort together
Kansas State (-6.5) at Cincinnati
In an introductory article for the college football season a few weeks ago, I wrote about 60 top trends across the country. Three of them involved Cincinnati, and I said then that I would circle on the calendar when those three angles converged. Well, we are here. Here are the trends with my writeup at the time:
* CINCINNATI is 10-23 ATS (30.3%) for -15.3 units vs. conference opponents since ’22
* CINCINNATI is 9-17 ATS (34.6%) for -9.7 units at home since 2022
* CINCINNATI is 6-18 ATS (25%) for -13.8 units as an underdog since 2021
Cincinnati hits the trifecta here with being a play-against team in three common spots. These angles seem to have all developed since former head coach Luke Fickell departed. Under him, they were a tremendous team to back regularly and developed quite a home-field edge. If you’re looking for any spots where the three trends converge, where Cincinnati will be a conference home underdog, try three potential contests, first versus Kansas State (9/26). Cincy is 3-0 against suspect competition so far, which only adds value against what I believe is a much superior Wildcats squad.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll lay the -6.5 points with Kansas State at Cincinnati
Northern Illinois (+10.5) at Georgia State
With a 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS record so far in 2026, head coach Del McGee’s Georgia State team has already surpassed its win totals from a year ago in those metrics. Does that mean the Panthers are ready to assume the role of double-digit favorite over a Mountain West team and then be backed by 92% of the handle at DraftKings this week? To me, that is a huge leap, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this GSU team underperform against Northern Illinois.
Looking back at recent seasons, GSU has not been a good home team. In fact, before the 59-10 rout of NC A&T in the season opener, the Panthers went 6-17-1 ATS in their prior 24 home games and lost their prior seven games ATS as a favorite. This is not a familiar spot for them. At the same time, while NIU is in a complete rebuild this year for first year head coach Rob Harley, the Huskies have seemed to improve in each of their first three games; in fact, only getting outgained 441-341 in last week’s loss but cover at Arizona.
The “stability mismatch” time period for 2026 is over; NIU looks like it escaped the period with limited damage. I would expect them to now more closely resemble recent predecessors, who were fantastic as road dogs. Heading into this season, NIU was 23-14 ATS in its last 37 road contests. My PRs say this line is 6 points off.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go with Northern Illinois (+10.5) to give Georgia State a scare
Wisconsin at Penn State (Total 44.5)
I was a little taken aback to see that Penn State was favored by only 10 over Wisconsin on Saturday in State College, PA. While it is not a white-out night game or anything, it still will be a very tough environment for a Wisconsin team that has floundered in recent years. Perhaps oddsmakers are signaling that the Badgers’ improved offensive effort in three games this season gives them a reasonable shot at competing.
So far, against Notre Dame, Western Illinois, and Eastern Michigan, the Badgers are scoring an effective 40.3 PPG. That is a massive improvement over a year ago, and can be attributed a lot to the addition of dual-threat QB Colton Joseph. Last week they scored 54 points, their highest one-game total in the head coach Luke Fickell era.
Does that mean I’m ready to get behind Bucky as it heads into its most difficult road game on the 2026 slate? Woah…slow down…However, I do think they can score and be competitive in this game. Which leads me to look at an Over on a very modest total. After all, Penn State has put up 42.3 PPG in its first three outings for head coach Matt Campbell. As I look at the DK Betting Splits for this game, I also see that 82% of the bets are on the Over 44.5. No worries though, here’s the recent history behind that action: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 46.5 or lower, 72%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 211-182 (53.7%).
College Football Best Bet: Let’s go with OVER 44.5 in the Penn State-Wisconsin contest
Oklahoma State (+1.5) at West Virginia
Off one of its biggest wins in the most recent tenure of head coach Rich Rodriguez, an 11-point win over Virginia, the Mountaineers return home, where they have been typically pretty good, and are laying just 1.5 points to the brand new Oklahoma State team in the conference opener. What gives? Apparently, oddsmakers have forgotten that OSU, before new head coach Eric Morris arrived this spring, went 0-18 SU and 6-12 ATS in Big 12 play over the last two seasons. Or are they simply overlooking that ugly trend because this team is essentially new and pulled a major upset at Oregon two weeks ago? I think it’s more of the latter.
Looking back at each of these two teams’ most recent games, we have two systems that will be in play. First, against WVU, teams still unranked even after beating a ranked team in the prior game are 85-40 SU but just 53-70-2 ATS (43.1%) when favored in the follow-up contest since November of 2015. Second, on OSU, CFB teams that see their point spread in one game being at least 52 points worse than the prior game have performed very well in that follow-up contest since 2012, going 107-81 ATS (56.9%).
College Football Best Bet: I’ll take my chances with Oklahoma State (+1.5) as the dog at WVU
Hawaii at Wyoming (+3)
It’s been a disappointing start for both Hawaii and Wyoming in 2026, and when weighed against expectations, you’d have to assume the Warriors are more concerned as they head to Laramie to play as a 3-point road favorite in a place where they’ve struggled historically. They have lost four of their last five games at Wyoming, including 42-9 in the last visit in 2023.
Overall, home teams are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the Hawaii-Wyoming set. There is also a so-called laundry list of situational angles to be concerned about. First, Hawaii is just 4-18 ATS in its last 22 conference games when favored by single digits, and 15-27 (35.7%) ATS as a Favorite overall since 2015. On the other sideline, Wyoming is 16-5 ATS (76.2%) in their last 21 home conference games as an underdog. That is a pretty strong convergence. From a ratings standpoint, my PRs say this line should be Hawaii -1.7, while my Effective Strength Yards Per Play data indicates Wyoming should be favored by -0.3. Those numbers assume Hawaii QB Alejado plays.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go with Wyoming +3 versus Hawaii here
Missouri State at SMU (-34.5)
Recognizing that my Power Ratings say the line for this game should be SMU -35.4 and my Effective Strength numbers show it at -35.9, the fact that this line is -34.5 doesn’t indicate it is “off” by much. Still, the fact that the Mustangs and QB Kevin Jennings come off a disappointing loss to Louisville provides the motivation here for them to open up a can of you know what on Missouri State.
Take a look at the system in place: Ranked teams coming off of double-digit losses have responded nicely of late, going 64-26 SU and 55-34-1 ATS (61.8%) in the next game since November of 2021. You would typically think the opposite, but losing can galvanize the right teams. As far as the Bears are concerned, they gave up 50 points to another multi-talented QB in Marcel Reed of Texas A&M, though their offense hasn’t been clicking like SMU’s. I could easily see SMU ending up in the 50s here.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go with SMU -34.5 to bury Missouri State
Colorado (+10) at Baylor
What a tale of different emotions for Colorado so far this season: first opening up with the gritty win at Georgia Tech, then clobbering Weber State, but then getting waxed at Northwestern. So which Buffaloes team do we figure to see this week at Baylor as they begin conference play? Well, truthfully, I have been waiting for this particular spot since writing my Top 60 trends article back in Week 1. Why?
One of my favorite trends reads as follows: Colorado is 12-5 ATS (70.6%) for +6.5 units coming off an outright loss over the last three seasons. I reasoned that, as much as Colorado hasn’t lived up to the hype since the arrival of head coach Deion Sanders, this trend shows he has strong merits as a head coach. He can lift his team after setbacks, and not many other programs respond at this level.
Unfortunately for the Buffaloes, I had them slated as underdogs in 10 games, yet this is the first time we get to see what they are made of. On the Baylor side, let’s not forget that the Bears were 1-8 ATS in Big 12 play last year, and are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight as favorites. Plus, with 41% of the bets but 68% of the handle on Colorado at DraftKings, it would seem that some sharps or big money plays might be coming in on Coach Prime & Co.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll back Colorado +10 to make a game of it at Baylor
Texas A&M at LSU (-8.5)
One of the most analytically charged games of the week is the big one in Baton Rouge, where LSU, off its emotional loss to Ole Miss, welcomes Texas A&M, off an unexpected loss of its own. To me, the Aggies’ loss is more concerning, since teams still ranked even after losing as 7-point favorites or more are 75-36 SU but 44-65-2 ATS (40.4%) in the follow-up games.
The Tigers’ loss was much more understandable, as the emotions attached to that game in Oxford were off the charts, and more so for the Rebels. I believe with that game now in the rearview mirror, LSU can finally concentrate on the task at hand. There’s no doubt that A&M’s legitimacy was being questioned, as they hadn’t really played all that well prior. In fact, if you look at my list of top 15 games showing a discrepancy between the actual line and my Effective Play by Play projections, you will find this game at #4, indicating LSU theoretically should be a 31.5-point favorite if using that metric.
Now that line would be completely unrealistic, but the fact that head coach Lane Kiffin’s team is favored by more than a TD is not lost on me, since you will find that when the home team has been ranked better in two ranked teams’ matchups, those teams have gone 128-32 SU and 95-61-4 ATS (60.9%). And when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 66-29 SU and 58-34-3 ATS (63%) since 2017.
College Football Best Bet: Give me LSU -8.5 to rebound on a Saturday night in Baton Rouge, one of college football’s toughest environments
Sam Houston State (+34.5) at Texas Tech
Last week’s tight Friday night win in Lubbock over a burgeoning Houston team told me two things about Texas Tech. First, the Red Raiders are probably not as good as they were last year, especially on defense. Second, it pointed me to this week’s game against Sam Houston State as a massive letdown spot against what, on paper, should be a vastly overmatched team. However, if you look closely at what Sam Houston State has done this season, they are probably much better than what the experts think.
In fact, in terms of Effective Play by Play metrics, this game is #1 on my list for the one indicating the line is most off. In fact, it says the Red Raiders should be only -2.4 point favorites. Now, I’m not dumb enough to believe that is the reality, but I wouldn’t discount the Bearkats to greatly beat oddsmakers’ sentiments.
Furthermore, if you look at my ESRs on the Makinen CFB Power Ratings page on VSiN.com, you will see that those numbers show TT being only 7.5 points better. My overall assessment is that SHSU might be better than the respect it is getting here. Then, looking back at last week, ranked teams coming off a close win of 7 points or fewer where they didn’t cover the point spread are on a 228-54 SU and 160-119-3 ATS (57.3%) surge when favored in the next game since October of 2015.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll take the +34.5 here w/ Sam Houston against 77% bet action at DK
Central Michigan at Miami (FL) (-41.5)
Miami faces what in some circles could be considered a difficult sandwich game versus Central Michigan, with the Hurricanes coming off a tighter-than-expected win at Wake Forest last Friday night and potentially looking ahead to next week’s “showdown” with Clemson. I put quotes around that because is it really a big game anymore with how the Tigers are playing?
The Hurricanes are 41.5-point favorites, and I typically stay away from backing teams like this in somewhat meaningless non-conference action at this point in the season, but let’s be honest: the only thing that figures to slow the Miami attack and QB Darian Mensah is head coach Mario Cristobal’s compassion. And after winning without covering last week, I don’t think there will be much. In terms of my Effective Strength projections, no FBS mismatch is bigger this week than this one, as my metrics indicate Miami should be favored by -48.9.
Oh, and if you’re concerned that 81% of the handle is backing them here, don’t be, since contrary to popular belief, majority handle bettors have been very good when getting behind huge home favorites, specifically those favored by 27.5-points or more. In most cases, I would fear this as a prototypical public bet, but these groups are 97-80 ATS (54.8%) over the last four seasons.
College Football Best Bet: Let’s lay the wood with Miami -41.5. 52-6 seems realistic
Middle Tennessee State at Jacksonville State (-7)
There aren’t a whole lot of trends or systems I see in place for this MTSU-JSU matchup, and in fact, there is only one I am going to cite:
Middle Tennessee State is on a 0-10 ATS skid in conference play when coming off an upset win. This team just hasn’t handled success well lately, and now they have to travel to face the team that has sort of taken over Conference USA in recent years. How will they react after beating Nevada last week?
That said, the bigger reason I like this game is that all four of the key metrics I look at in statistically analyzing games are lining up consistently, and all are indicating this line is at least a couple points too low. In fact, my Power Ratings show JSU -11.1, my Effective Strength Ratings say JSU -9.1, my Effective Play by Play Ratings show JSU -11.2, and finally, my Bettors Ratings are indicating JSU should be a 10.2-point favorite. Rarely is that consistent across the board. Perhaps this line is just low.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go with Jacksonville State (-7) to get a CUSA win over MTSU
Georgia Tech at Stanford (total 48.5)
Take away games against Hawaii and Mercer, and we have two teams playing in a late Saturday night affair in Cali trying to find their offenses. In their other four games combined, Georgia Tech and Stanford have mustered just 50 points. I’m not surprised, therefore, to see a modest total of 48.5 attached to their game. I still don’t think they’ll get to that point, though.
Look at this interesting ACC system: Under the total is 71-49-1 (59.2%) in ACC expected-tight matchups (within -3.5 to +3.5 line range) with totals <= 55.5 since 2015. If you’re concerned that 99% of the handle at DK as of this writing was agreeing with me, don’t be, as since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 49 or lower, 72%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 69-58 (54.3%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority has been sharp.
College Football Best Bet: Let’s lean UNDER 48.5 in Georgia Tech-Stanford for Saturday night
For more College Football Week 4 best bets, visit the College Football Week 4 hub, exclusively on VSiN.com.
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