I mentioned earlier this week in my Week 4 college football power ratings article that this was the week where I was really digging in. I would either prove myself right or wrong on a variety of teams out there based on the lines where my numbers were different from the market’s. Some of those games are part of this week’s best bets. Some are just plays that I made earlier in the week trying to get ahead of line moves.
One thing that we will see a lot over the next 2-3 weeks will be massive strength of schedule discrepancies. Personally, I like Jeff Sagarin’s SOS numbers, where you have games like Ole Miss (13th) vs. Florida (89th) or Michigan (63rd) vs. Iowa (149th). I’m not going to say that you have to adhere to the idea that surprises can’t happen, but you do want to put team performance in the proper context before thinking about locking in this week’s bets.
Here are my favorite Week 4 college football picks:
Lines from Circa Sports as of 5:15 p.m. PT on September 23.
UCLA (-1.5, 56) vs. Maryland Prediction
Pick: UCLA -1.5
The Bruins are a long way from home here, but back near the old stomping grounds of head coach Bob Chesney, who knows the DMV area quite well. The UCLA offense has been humming right along thus far, racking up 7.36 yards per play, including better than eight yards per play in their conference opener against Purdue last week when they scored 52 points.
Chesney does have some defensive kinks to iron out after Purdue racked up 8.3 yards per play last week, but a lot of that had to do with play distribution and over 400 yards passing. Maybe Maryland’s Malik Washington can take advantage of that, as he’s thrown for nearly 900 yards with a 6/0 TD/INT ratio, but I’m not convinced that the Terps defense will be able to provide a lot of resistance.
More importantly, we’re looking at some wind gusts up in the 25 mph range here. Maryland has 5.7 yards per carry, but a 94-yard run from DeJuan Williams against Hampton has skewed those numbers quite a bit. The Terps only have 3.32 yards per carry in their FBS matchups against UConn and Virginia Tech. Meanwhile, UCLA has played three FBS opponents and has racked up seven yards per carry.
That tells me that the Bruins should stack up better in the trenches on offense here and that’s a big deal with the weather. My line here is Bruins -5, so this is one of those aforementioned power ratings plays.
Kansas State (-6.5, 55) vs. Cincinnati Prediction
Pick: Kansas State -6.5
Things are humming in the Little Apple right now with head coach Collin Klein, as QB Avery Johnson has over 10 yards per carry on the young year and has completed nearly 70% of his passes. Klein probably sees a lot of himself in Johnson and has tailored the offense to his skill set. Johnson isn’t the only one who has had success running the ball – the Wildcats have 6.7 yards per carry as a team.
Cincinnati’s Week 1 win over Boston College didn’t really have a lot of luster to begin with, but it has lost some. And last week’s win over Miami was pretty uninspiring as well. The RedHawks were 50% on third down and the Bearcats needed to convert three of four fourth-down tries just to eke out a 35-31 win in a game that they trailed 28-7 at half.
Perhaps the showing in the second half for UC is worth thinking differently about the team, but I’ll pay to see it. The RedHawks lost 59-14 to Pitt to open the season. This past week, they racked up 7.7 yards per play on the Bearcats and ranked in the 71st percentile in EPA/Dropback per Game On Paper relative to 2025 numbers with David McComb, who is a first-time starting QB.
JC French IV was sacked three times last week and was a volume merchant, throwing for 309 yards on 43 attempts. Kansas State hasn’t played anybody en route to 3-0, but their SOS per Sagarin is higher than Cincinnati’s and they’ve had more issues. This is another one where I’m trusting my ratings, as this number was Kansas State -10 for me.
Illinois vs. Ohio State (-27, 53.5) Prediction
Pick: Illinois +27
There’s a clear talent gap in this game, but that’s accounted for with the 27-point head start. Like my first two picks here, this one is also a power ratings play. There are other reasons, though, like how Ohio State has gone just 12-for-33 on third down with first-year OC Arthur Smith. I haven’t been overly impressed with him so far, nor have I been impressed with Ryan Day’s aggressiveness or tempo.
With an edge against virtually every team that they play, the Buckeyes should be trying to run as many plays as possible and they never do. And now, they’re bogging themselves down on third down, despite a couple of very weak opponents outside of Texas. The Buckeyes were just 6-for-19 on third down against Ball State and Kent State. Illinois, while inferior, is still a Big Ten team.
East Carolina transfer Katin Houser is back in the Big Ten with the Illini and has an 8/2 TD/INT ratio thus far. Houser went from 11 picks in his first season with Pirates down to six in his second season. Over three seasons as a starter and this year’s early returns, he’s only been sacked 40 times in his career. The Buckeyes only have four sacks in three games anyway, and, again, that’s concerning given two of the three teams that they’ve played. DC Matt Patricia is mostly focused on keeping things in front of these guys rather than pinning their ears back and going after the QB.
Those elements should allow Illinois to hang around a bit. I could also see a bit of a slow start from the Buckeyes here with the early kick and an adjustment to a quicker pace after taking out their Texas frustration on Penn State. My line here is 22.5.
Oregon State (-11, 55.5) vs. UTEP Prediction
Pick: Oregon State -11
There are 10.5s out there for this one, but the Circa number was 11 at time of writing. The Beavers have thrown for 1,157 yards, the most in the nation among teams with three games played entering this week. UTEP has gained 839 yards total thus far. This is a pretty bad offensive team and Oregon State seems to have quite a robust passing attack.
Yes, UTEP has played Oklahoma and Michigan and given up 103 combined points to those teams. However, Oregon State has played Houston and Texas Tech and really hung in those two games for the most part. Mercer transfer Braden Atkinson has an 8/1 TD/INT ratio with a 63.6% completion rate and more than 1,100 passing yards, as he beat out Texas A&M and Duke transfer Maalik Murphy for the job for first-year head coach JaMarcus Shephard.
Shephard was swag surfin’ with the crowd last week in the game against Montana and he’s installing a new culture here for a program that was mostly forgotten by the administration while being orphaned when the Pac-12 dissolved. There’s more talent here this season and the Beavers should be able to throw it around the yard against this UTEP defense. My line on this game is -17, so I’ll adjust if need be, but I think the Beavers are just underrated by the market in general.
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