White Sox vs. Guardians
The White Sox and Guardians will play in the only Game 5 in the Division Series Round, as the other AL series was done in three games and the two NL series were over in four. How we got to this point is probably the most shocking thing, as Cleveland scored three runs at home across Games 1 and 2, but then exploded for 18 runs in the two games in Chicago to erase a 2-0 series deficit. Now, we get Game 5 for all the proverbial marbles and a chance to face the Rays with a trip to the World Series on the line.
White Sox vs. Guardians (-137, 7) Prediction
Pick: White Sox +114
Let me preface all of this by saying that I have no idea who will win Game 5. What I do know is that this is a lofty number for Cleveland against a starter that they have had no success against and both bullpens are complete and utter wild cards in this game.
Sean Burke gets the nod for Chicago here and he was magnificent in Game 2, holding the Guardians to just one hit and one walk over six innings of work. His baserunner did score on the Jo Adell triple to center field off of Grant Taylor, but Burke was really, really good otherwise, racking up 11 Whiffs in his 53 strikes.
All hands are on deck for both bullpens, but White Sox manager Will Venable will let Burke go as long as he can here, as Cleveland’s had a lot of exposure to the relievers. In three regular-season starts against the Guardians, Burke allowed three runs (two earned) across 17.1 innings with a 21/3 K/BB ratio. He gave up a solo homer in two of those three starters and just an unearned run on September 14. He was very good with a 3.34 ERA, 3.78 xERA, and a 3.62 FIP over 172.1 innings of work.
What’s interesting about how he’s fared against the Guardians is that he was noticeably worse against left-handed hitters, allowing a .405 SLG that was 60 points higher than what righties were able to produce. And yet Cleveland’s platoon-heavy lineup hasn’t been able to do anything of consequence against him.
Gavin Williams was called into action in the ninth inning of Game 4, as Stephen Vogt completely mangled and FUBARed the end of that game. Reliever Matt Festa hasn’t been used at all in this series and should have been deployed in the eighth against the bottom of the order, but Vogt went to Cade Smith, who threw 29 pitches and gave up a homer to Miguel Vargas before being replaced by Williams. Williams was said to be scheduled for a bullpen following Game 4 if he wasn’t needed, but he got his side work done with real game action.
I don’t know what that necessarily means for him. It was his first career relief appearance in a season where he has pitched a career-high 190.1 innings. He had a 3.76 ERA with a 3.82 xERA and a 3.47 FIP over his 32 starts. His 2.85 xFIP points to some bad luck with his 17% HR/FB%. With the wind forecasted to be blowing out towards the lake instead of in from it, that worries me a bit here about Williams in a game where one mistake could be very costly.
Williams was only able to give Cleveland five innings in Game 2 because he struck out 11 and walked three, needing 98 pitches to get 15 outs. Erik Sabrowski came in and lit a match on the mound that ultimately put Cleveland out of reach. I am truly worried about Williams’ pitch efficiency here because Tim Herrin, Hunter Gaddis, and Sabrowski have all had some tough moments in this series. My guess is actually that Foster Griffin is the first man out of the bullpen after 2.2 innings with seven strikeouts in Game 3, where he threw 53 pitches.
I don’t know how that goes for Griffin, given that high-leverage relief is not really his area of expertise. Quite simply, this is a play on the White Sox for two reasons. The first is that Burke is really good and has been really good against Cleveland. The second is that this game is a total crapshoot once the bullpens get involved. Grant Taylor and Hagen Smith looked totally gassed in Game 4, so I don’t know who Venable will go to in high-leverage spots. I know who Vogt will likely go to and those guys scare the hell out of me.
Long story short, I am absolutely rooting for my hometown Guardians, but given all the context to this game, they don’t really deserve to be a favorite of this size.
