College Football Week 8 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
After taking Week 7 off to refresh both my mind and my data, I head into Week 8 college football with a 53-57-1 ATS mark. In the systems article I put together last week, I reasoned that my confidence had shrunk over the past month or so of college football action, largely because I felt the systems I rely on needed an upgrade. I did that last week, and combined with my son AJ’s work, you will see some of that in this week’s Analytics Report.
Unfortunately for my season record, it seems I picked a bad week to take off from this column, since readers gave me several kudos for how well they fared in college football last week based on my Effective Play by Play Ratings, new systems, and the Analytics Report. Oh well, that’s how it goes, and my goal is simply to help VSiN readers get ahead anyways. Hopefully the positive momentum continues this week; we’ve got a solid slate of games, with several ranked teams taking difficult road trips to conference foes hungry for upsets. I have a couple of those on my plays for this week.
Thursday, October 22, 2026
Liberty (-10) at Kennesaw State
To this day, I never understood why head coach Jamey Chadwell left Coastal Carolina for Liberty. To me, it seemed like at best a lateral move. After an amazing first season with the Flames, things weren’t nearly as great in years 2 and 3. However, in year 4, his team seems to be putting it back together, off perhaps its best four-game stretch since the 2022 season. They have won and covered all of their last four games and have their sights firmly set on hosting the CUSA title game.
I don’t believe a 1-5 Kennesaw State team or a double-digit spread is going to stand in their way here: Road/Neutral teams who have won their last four ATS have been solid bets as larger favorites (-7.5 or higher) in the next game, going 87-17 SU and 57-43-4 ATS (57%) since 2016. There is also this great angle in play thanks to the Liberty defense the last two weeks, which has allowed a total of 17 points: Teams that have won back-to-back conference games both SU and ATS while being defensively dominant (<12 PPG allowed in those two games) have been tremendous when playing on the road in the next game, 59-34 ATS (63.4%) since 2019.
I would be remiss not to mention this is a revenge spot for a home loss last year in which Liberty allowed 48 points: Double-digit road favorites have been good producers in the revenge role, going 54-46 ATS (54%) since 2016.
College Football Best Bet: In the famous words of Patrick Henry, give me Liberty (-10) or give me death…haha
Friday, October 23, 2026
Army (+1.5) at Tulsa
After stumbling through the first four weeks of the season, perhaps trying to find itself, Army seems to have put it together finally over the last two weeks, coming up with impressive wins over Florida Atlantic and Tulane. Besides the fact that Tulane went on to then beat emerging AAC favorite Memphis, the 56 points the Knights put up against FAU were the most they’ve scored in a game vs. a FBS opponent since 2021. Now, they hit the road to take on a Tulsa team that last year received one of the worst true home-field advantage ratings in all of FBS, getting 1.5 points HFA.
I’ve been of the belief in recent history that the Golden Hurricane actually play their best football on the road. Because of that lack of home-field edge, Army gets the benefit of the doubt against this +1.5-point spread in just about every rating I have, including the new Effective Play by Play Ratings I’ve been sharing in articles in recent weeks. My power rating actually shows Army should be favored by 4.8. In fact, I had to go double- and triple-check that there were no personnel or injury issues I had glossed over. Of course, this is also a revenge game for the Knights, as they were stunned last year as 10-point favorites at home, 26-25. The last time Army was in Tulsa was in 2024, and that game wound up 49-7. I don’t think this will be that ugly, but I do think the wrong team is favored.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go with Army +1.5 at Tulsa
Air Force at Wyoming (+5.5)
For whatever reason, no matter how good Air Force is in any given season, and the Falcons are pretty good now, having won four straight, they always seem to struggle at Wyoming. In fact, the Cowboys are on an absurd 14-2 ATS run in games with Air Force, including 5-2 SU and 7-0 ATS in the last seven at home. With five teams sitting with one loss right now in the Mountain West Conference, this game has taken on some meaning, and while yes, Air Force is playing well, so is Wyoming, who has won twice outright as an underdog already this season, and should not be fazed by that role on Friday night.
Looking at a very key trend for this game, Wyoming is 17-5 ATS (77.3%) as a home underdog in conference games since 2016. Of course, I always try to make sure my numeric data lines up with the trends/systems, and for this one, on my Effective Play by Play Ratings, it shows the body of work numbers projecting Wyoming should be the -5.6-point favorite, with the recent forecasted number showing WYO -3.1. If you need more, consider that with just 48% of the bets at DraftKings backing Wyoming, 67% of the handle is, and that difference is often suggested as the latter being the “sharp” money.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll back Wyoming +5.5 again as a home dog to Air Force
Saturday, October 24, 2026
Rice (+7.5) at Florida Atlantic
If you’ve been a consistent reader of this best bets column and saw my opinions in the VSiN College Football Betting Guide, you probably know that I’ve been a pretty staunch supporter of FAU this season. I don’t like this particular spot against Rice, however, especially coming off the blowout loss to Army. There are two systems in play addressing that ugly setback: 1) Teams coming off losses in which they were road dogs of less than 3 points are just 69-120 ATS (36.5%) in the follow-up game since 2018. 2) Teams playing in a home conference game after losing and yielding 48+ points to another conference rival the previous game are just 73-106 ATS (40.8%) since 2020 and 3) Conference home favorites coming off a double-digit conference loss are just 219-293 ATS (42.8%) since 2016.
That’s not to mention that underdogs/road teams are on a 3-3 SU and 5-0-1 ATS surge in Owls vs Owls rivalry. The number here says 7.5; my Effective Play by Play metrics show that Rice should actually be favored in both the full season and recent forecast models. Plus, we have another situation here where the bets (35%) and the handle (92%) at DK on Rice don’t match up. Rice looks due for a better outing, and a bad defense like FAU’s could be the perfect recipe.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll look for Rice (+7.5) to make a game of it at FAU
Syracuse at North Carolina (-7.5)
Sometimes you can hear the gears actually starting to turn, but it feels to me like this UNC engine is getting going, with the Tar Heels coming off back-to-back upset wins over Pittsburgh and Duke. With just one conference loss on the record, head coach Bill Belichick’s team can start “standings watching” in the ACC. This could be the moment we’ve been waiting for as the official arrival of the Belichick UNC squad, and I don’t foresee a struggling and injury-affected Syracuse team slowing the momentum.
In head-to-head history, North Carolina is 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS against Syracuse since 2002. You may be asking why I think the Orange are struggling, since they were competitive in both of their most recent losses and won both ATS. Well, teams that have lost their last two games outright but won both ATS have been bad bets when playing as underdogs again in the next contest, going 56-84 ATS (40%) since 2017. The line here is -7.5, my Effective Play-by-play Home Line shows North Carolina -15.3, and my Effective Forecasted Play-by-play Home Line shows North Carolina -13.5. This Tar Heel train is starting to chug down the tracks as the get ready for Miami next week. I expect another big game from big blue.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll back North Carolina -7.5 at home versus Syracuse
Pittsburgh at Miami (FL) (-19.5)
Miami seemed to get downgraded significantly in both the media eyes and those of the oddsmakers after barely surviving Florida State last week. Of course, that game always has additional motivations, particularly for the underdog. I personally didn’t downgrade that loss for Miami nearly as much as it seems those setting the numbers did, as my Power Ratings for this game show the Hurricanes should be -23.3 point favorites as opposed to just -19.5. Is that a big enough different to assume Miami will bring it and take care of business? Yes, I would say so, especially since I feel that this matchup was one of just a few that the Hurricanes had circled on their calendars as proving grounds for 2026.
If you recall, the last time the Panthers visited Miami, they routed head coach Mario Cristobal’s first team here 42-16. Now that’s a little too long ago to use as revenge system making, but I’m sure it will be on the minds of Cristobal and staff. More than anything, I feel like last week’s close shave and the disrespect Miami might be feeling will be plenty of motivation: Ranked teams coming off a close win of 7 points or fewer where they didn’t cover the point spread are on a 231-55 SU and 163-120-3 ATS (57.6%) surge when favored in the next game since October of 2015.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll lay the -19.5 points with Miami here
Texas Tech at Cincinnati (+10.5)
I am definitely of the mindset, as a former oddsmaker, that those behind the counter take bigger swings than they should sometimes based upon single-game results in college football. I think that may have happened here with Texas Tech, as the Red Raiders come off a 53-25 rout of Arizona State last week. It’s a little different hosting ASU than it is making a first trip to Cincinnati. I really have a tough time seeing Texas Tech make this one easy, and there is an actual concern with the Red Raiders allowing 25, 26, and 24 points so far to three different teams. The defense should not be confused with what it was last year, and I do believe Cincinnati has a high-powered attack to exploit it, particularly at home.
With the Bearcats coming off a 45-42 loss at West Virginia, there will be a strong system in place for this one: College football teams that lost a game as an underdog despite gaining 550 or more yards on offense have bounced back well lately, going 63-48-2 ATS (56.8%) over the last 13 years. If you’ve been reading my Effective Play by Play series of articles recently, you’ve probably noticed that Texas Tech might not be quite as good on a play-by-play basis as its ranking or power rating suggests. In fact. For this game, the metrics for both season-long and trend forecasts show the Bearcats should be small home favorites. Obviously, no right-minded oddsmaker would put out a line like that, but I do believe it shows value with the home dog here.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll back Cincinnati +10.5 in its first opportunity to host Texas Tech
Tennessee at South Carolina (-2.5)
Oh boy, we have the same potential letdown spot that several other SEC teams prior have faced, including Ole Miss, Florida, Missouri, etc. Tennessee is the one that now has to overcome the hangover that might still be in place from upsetting Alabama last weekend. Teams coming off an upset win over a Top 15-ranked team are 129-92 SU but just 98-122-1 ATS (44.5%) in the follow-up contest dating back to November 2016.
If you recall, there were tons of questions about head coach Josh Heupel and the UT offense prior to that. And wouldn’t you know it, oddsmakers have put bettors in the difficult spot of choosing whether or not the right team is favored in Columbia this Saturday. Unranked teams that are favored over ranked teams in Power 4 conference games boast a record of 63-33 SU and 52-40-4 ATS (56.5%) dating back to November 2016. My Effective Play-by-play numbers for both season-long and recency do show that the right team is favored: the first metric shows SC -4.3, and the other -4.2. I like that consistency. I also like how much the Gamecocks dominated Florida two weeks ago and then had a bye week to get ready for this one. If that weren’t enough, we have 78% of the handle at DK backing SC but 68% of the bets on the Vols. The latter is considered public.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll back South Carolina (-2.5) to show that the right team is indeed favored
Rutgers at Northwestern (-16.5)
If you asked right now which program has the best home-field advantage in college football, most naïve bettors wouldn’t put Northwestern in their top 50 teams. But those of us who have watched the Wildcats in their two games at their brand-new Ryan Field know otherwise. The place is electric and the football team that plays there is feeding off of it. Since the place opened, not only has Northwestern won both games there, but the momentum those wins generated fueled them to another road win at Michigan State. Head coach David Braun’s team is now 5-1 and riding high as it hosts the Big Ten’s arguably worst team this weekend.
Do you really see Rutgers stopping this momentum? The Wildcats actually failed to cover in their last two outings, but that could benefit them here in two ways: 1) Teams that have won their last two games outright while losing both ATS have been fantastic when hosting a conference team in the next outing, 69-37-1 ATS (65.1%) since 2016. 2) Ranked teams coming off a close win of 7 points or fewer where they didn’t cover the point spread are on a 231-55 SU and 163-120-3 ATS (57.6%) surge when favored in the next game since October of 2015. Most of my ratings show Northwestern as underpriced, and I haven’t even adjusted to home-field advantage numbers to reflect the new reality.
College Football Best Bet: I look for Northwestern (-16.5) to take care of business vs. Rutgers
USC at Wisconsin (+3)
Wisconsin’s momentum was squelched by a very good UCLA team last week, but the game wasn’t without controversy. The Badgers will look to rebound at home this week against USC, in what figures to be the second of three consecutive games against ranked foes, with Iowa on deck. Teams playing in the middle game(s) of what becomes 3+ straight games against ranked opponents have been quite successful, going 103-81 SU and 112-70-2 ATS (61.5%) dating back to November of 2015.
Of course, we know the recent history of USC hitting the road in Big Ten country. In short, it hasn’t been pretty, discounting the Penn State game a couple of weeks back. USC is 4-16 SU and 3-17 ATS (15%) in the last 20 visits to Eastern/Central time zone. The Trojans also have not handled outright road wins well, going 1-10 ATS in the next contest if against conference opponents. And head coach Lincoln Riley’s team has lost 18 of its lsat 25 games ATS as a favorite in conference play.
Not only that, but the Badgers are the beneficiary on both of my Effective Play by Play metric projections, with both the full season and recent showing head coach Luke Fickell’s team should actually be favored here. Add to that the handle (76% WIS)/bets (70% USC) disparity at DraftKings, and this could shape up to be a tough spot for USC on Saturday night in Madison.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Wisconsin (+3) in what could turn out to be a big night for Wisconsin sports fans
Virginia Tech at Clemson (Total 49.5)
I usually don’t like it when the betting splits show 94% handle/67% bets on the wagering option I am looking at for a particular game, but sometimes the public does win. I think this could be one of those spots, and I’m wondering if many of these bettors got a look at this system I’ve called on several times this season already: Under the total is 75-51-1 (59.5%) in ACC expected-tight matchups (within -3.5 to +3.5 line range) with totals <= 55.5 since 2015. Why does it work for this particular spot, with Virginia Tech and Clemson both effectively averaging over 32 PPG? Well, both defenses are solid and with each team looking to stay in the hunt for an ACC title berth, I think it will be played in a certain way that promotes Under pace. I believe Clemson has to play that way to win here. The Tigers’ games thus far have produced about 43 points per game combined, and a couple of scores so far probably shouldn’t have happened.
In my estimation, this is an Under type of team, especially breaking in a freshman QB. Defensively is where the Tigers excel, as they are holding teams to 12.9 points below their effective averages and allowing an effective 4.29 yards per play. That second figure is 25th in the country. Take away games against juggernauts LSU and Miami, and head coach Dabo Swinney’s team is allowing 9.3 PPG. I don’t see Virginia Tech on that offensive level either having scored just 20 and 21 points in the two most recent road games. Let’s call for a 23-20 type of game that could go either way.
College Football Best Bet: UNDER 49.5 in Virginia Tech-Clemson for me
Texas-San Antonio at Tulane (+2.5)
Just when you start to count a team out, they come roaring back and post their best effort of the season. That is exactly what happened to Tulane last week, who pulled off a huge home upset of Memphis to stay in the hunt in the AAC. This week’s game is equally big, and the stakes remain high for a program, that although it has undergone a bit of a transformation this season under new head coach Will Hall, is still a threat. The Green Wave will once again be a home dog, this time to a UTSA team that has clearly played its best ball at home in recent seasons. In fact, the Roadrunners come into this game on a 4-12 SU and ATS slide in true road games.
Of course, this is also a revenge game for Tulane after being embarrassed in San Antonio last year 48-26. Teams seeking revenge at home in a competitive line range (-3.5 to +3.5) after getting blown out by this opponent on the road (>= 20-point loss) last time have been solid bets, going 93-74 SU & 98-65-4 ATS (60.1%) since 2017. The Effective Play-by-play metrics say Tulane +0.5 for full season, and Tulane -0.5 for recent forecast. My power ratings say the wrong team is favored (Tulane -2.9). That’s plenty enough for me.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Tulane +2.5 as the live home dog to UTSA
Hawaii at Northern Illinois (+4.5)
I don’t have any systems that lead me in the direction I am looking at for this game, but I do have some ratings metrics, a trend, and some logic that has me looking closely at Northern Illinois here. First off, the metrics. With an actual home line of NIU +4.5, my Effective Play-by-play Home Line shows the Huskies should be favored by 4.1. My Effective Forecasted Play-by-play Home Line shows NIU -4.5. Again, I love the consistency, and it makes sense in that Hawaii hasn’t topped the 16-point mark in any of its last four games. And while I know that Northern Illinois is winless at 0-6, I’m not sure the Warriors deserve the chalk role either.
As it is, Hawaii is just 4-20 ATS in its last 24 conference games when favored by single digits. Finally, for a team that is struggling like the Warriors are right now, can you think of a more ugly and uninspiring road trip for a team from Honolulu to go on in the middle of their season? Me being from Wisconsin, I don’t mind trips to Rockford, IL. But think of this from the mind of a warm, sunny-weather football player. There’s a reason the public is backing a winless team here. This is a very tough spot for Hawaii regardless of the opponent.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll back Northern Illinois +4.5 to at least threaten a first win of ‘26
Texas A&M at Alabama (-14)
Both Texas A&M and Alabama were expected CFP contenders in the SEC prior to the season. One is 4-3 and hasn’t looked anywhere near the part of a playoff team in recent weeks. The other is 5-2 and coming off back-to-back losses. In other words, on the surface, it looks like this could be anyone’s game, right? Wrong, and oddsmakers are telling you so in how they have established the line, with the home Tide favored by two TDs. This game fits perfectly into each team’s recent tendencies as reasoning for the big line: For one, Texas A&M is 7-15 SU and 6-15-2 ATS (28.6%) on the road since 2021. Alternatively, Alabama is on a 33-12 ATS (73.3%) surge at Home.
Statistically, and shown by the metrics, Alabama is also a far better team, and my Effective Play by Play numbers show Alabama is about 30 points better right now in that regard. If you’re worried now that Alabama has backed itself into a corner as far as its playoff prospects are concerned, they of course need this one, and ranked teams coming off of double-digit losses have responded nicely of late, going 68-29 SU and 57-39-1 ATS (59.4%) in the next game since November of 2021. With its 27-6 loss at Missouri and 35-6 setback at LSU still fresh in memory, A&M has proved to me it is not a playoff team. Having pushed Georgia to the limit two weeks ago, I still think Alabama could be. The Tide show the difference this week.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll be laying the 14 points with Alabama on Saturday afternoon
Boise State (-13.5) at Washington State
Historically speaking, Washington State has always been a very pesky home underdog. This year’s Cougars, however, are proving that they are not at the same level as their predecessors, so those trends could be effectively ignored. WaSU got a cheap cover last week in a 48-30 loss to Oregon State, but that doesn’t figure to help them this week by these two systems: 1) Teams playing in a home conference game after losing and yielding 48+ points to another conference rival the previous game are just 73-106 ATS (40.8%) since 2020. As a program, Boise State is a perfect 11-0 ATS in conference play when coming off a close win of 7 points or fewer and 2) Teams that have lost their last two games outright but won both ATS have been bad bets when playing as underdogs again in the next contest, going 56-84 ATS (40%) since 2017.
At the same time, Boise State is in great shape for an inaugural Pac-12 title game appearance at 5-1 and just survived one of its toughest matchups of the season at Fresno State, 38-31. Ranked teams coming off a close win of 7 points or fewer where they didn’t cover the point spread, are on a 231-55 SU and 163-120-3 ATS (57.6%) surge when favored in the next game since October of 2015. Boise State is also a perfect 11-0 ATS in conference play when coming off a close win of 7 points or fewer.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll lay the -13.5 points with Boise State on the road
Utah State (+13.5) at Texas State
New Pac-12 rivals collide as Utah State battles Texas State on Saturday night. Yes, that is accurate, these two teams are now conference rivals in a former Power 5 league. There is clearly something fishy with the line for their first meeting since 2012 too, as Texas State is a 13.5-point home favorite despite outscoring Utah State by a 40-14.5 per game average this season. What stinks even worse than that is this game’s line has dropped from its opening number despite heavy public backing at DraftKings. When something looks this messed up, I always try to go the other way.
Fortunately, there are a couple of good systems in play to warrant backing the low scoring Aggies here. First, over the last 13 years, CFB teams that won a conference game despite gaining less than 250 yards of offense have used that victory to build momentum, going 87-66-2 ATS (56.9%) in the follow-up contest. They did that two weeks ago in beating Washington State 17-16. As a result, teams playing as conference road dogs of more than 7 points after not having played since 14 days ago are on a 152-128 ATS (54.3%) surge since 2010. Despite some awful offensive numbers, my metrics show USU being a far better defensive team and more worthy of being about an 11.5-point dog. Assuming USU doesn’t fall behind big early, they should make a better game of this than the odds say.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll back Utah State +13.5 at Texas State
North Dakota State (+4.5) at New Mexico
Even after making its jump to FBS level this season, North Dakota State has yet to be an underdog this season. To be quite frank, I didn’t like the fact that the Bison were favored at UNLV, and I played it accordingly. Now, talk about unfamiliar territory, head coach Tim Polasek gets to use the underdog role motivation on this team for the first time since 2024, the year he took over the NDSU program. His first team was 4-0 ATS in that role.
Do I think the right team is favored here then? Absolutely, but I also love what I’ve seen from NDSU in this first year at college football’s top level, and in no way do I feel they won’t be competitive this week versus New Mexico. Let’s look at my ratings to justify this. If you go on the VSIN website and find my ratings, click on the College Football Week 8 Projections. On my Effective Strength Ratings, you will see New Mexico -3.7. On my Bettors Ratings, you will see UNM -3.3. And then on my Effective Play-by-play article, you’ll see the body of work numbers showing -1.2 and the forecasted model showing -4.2. None of the numbers reach up to -4.5, and I think that’s just how this game will go. If the Lobos win, it’s probably by a late field goal, a heartbreaker for the hungry Bison.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll take the +4.5 with North Dakota State at New Mexico
For more Week 8 college football best bets, visit the Week 8 College Football Betting Hub, exclusively on VSiN.com.
SPONSORED
SCOTT RICKENBACH from Doc’s Sports is on fire in football (NFL + CFB) and in the MLB playoffs!
He has won 16 of 18 MLB highest-rated (7*/8*) picks for an 89% win rate. His MLB is +19,285
since joining Doc’s in August of 2025 (DOCUMENTED HERE), including +14,650 in 2026!
His hot MLB Run is 13-2 and +5,065 in profit (DOCUMENTED HERE).
Rickenbach won another big play (7*) on Sunday (Packers 23-13) as part of a 3-0 NFL SWEEP! His Football is 39-26 and +4,340 this season (DOCUMENTED HERE)
Get your free trial with him at docsports.com
