Tuley’s Takes – Week 8 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:
We really thought last Saturday’s college football action was going to be a banner day in the Tuley’s Takes home office, but we ended up trading money (and losing the vig).
In the three games we had that kicked off at noon ET #5 (Indiana +3.5 vs. #4 Ohio State, Cincinnati +2 at West Virginia, and Florida +11.5 at #7 Texas), it looked like we could sweep 3-0 ATS if not outright, or at the very least 2-1 ATS. Florida held on to upset Texas 27-24, but West Virginia rallied to beat Cincinnati 45-42 to lose the cover by 1 point, and Ohio State beat Indiana 19-15 to cover by half a point in a game Indiana coulda and shoulda won if not for two fourth-down conversions by Ohio State and a receiver not getting one foot down on the final play of the game that would have been the winning TD.
We did salvage a 2-2 ATS day with #8 BYU +10.5 upsetting #2 Notre Dame 28-24, but the day coulda been a lot better. Anyway, we’re still trading money at 15-14 ATS on the season as we hope to improve in the second half leading into the bowls and CFB Playoff.
Let’s apply our “dog or pass” philosophy to Week 8’s card, starting this week with a Friday night game.
Air Force at Wyoming (+5.5)
We have Friday Night Lights with Air Force visiting Wyoming, and we want to get our Week 8 plays going. We like these weeknight home underdogs (keeping with our recent success on home dogs in general), as they’re often live with a raucous crowd. And Wyoming have been a good home team, especially in this series. My VSIN colleague Steve Makinen points out they’re 14-2 ATS overall in this series and 5-2 SU and 7-0 ATS in the last seven in Laramie – plus 17-5 ATS (77.3%) as a conference home dog over the past 10 seasons.
As for these teams, both are 3-1 in the Mountain West, so this is an important conference game as both chase the only undefeated team, New Mexico (2-0 in MWC), which plays North Dakota State on Saturday night. Air Force (5-1 overall) comes in with four straight wins and the better overall stats (343 rushing yards per game, No. 2 in the nation), but Wyoming runs the ball well, too, and dual-threat QB Tyler Hughes is coming off a big game with 196 passing and 183 rushing yards against my alma mater, Northern Illinois, and should be able to keep this within a field goal, with hopefully the home crowd lifting the Cowboys to the outright upset.
College Football Best Bet: Wyoming +5.5
#6 Indiana at Michigan (+7.5)
Sticking with our home dog theme on Saturday, Michigan is hosting Indiana in the Big House. As I wrote in the intro, I felt I should have won with Indiana vs. Ohio State last Saturday in their marquee matchup. I try not to have a knee-jerk reaction to bet against a team that let me down, but the Hoosiers are in a classic “anti-swagger spot” after having their 22-game winning streak snapped.
I still need Indiana to win the Big Ten title from my pick on them in the VSiN College Football Betting Guide, but I really believe this line is too high at more than a TD. This line has risen from -6.5 to -7.5, apparently due to Michigan having Tommy Carr, grandson of former Michigan head coach Lloyd Carr, make his first career start over former starter Bryce Underwood. It’s dicey taking a QB in their first start (college or pro), but Carr did replace Underwood at halftime last Saturday and overcame a 3-0 deficit to lead the Wolverines to a 20-18 victory.
College Football Best Bet: Michigan +7.5
Pittsburgh (+20.5) at #1 Miami (FL)
Last week we had BYU against #2 Notre Dame and got the outright upset. Let’s see if Pitt can give newly crowned No. 1 Miami a scare, though we’re not calling for the upset here. Miami took over the top ranking after last week’s Top 10 carnage, but it wasn’t easy as the Hurricanes needed double OT to outlast unranked Florida State 43-35. They’ve pretty much coasted in all their other wins, with a 33-20 win at Wake Forest being their only other game they didn’t win by more than this spread of three touchdowns. But at least we’ve seen they don’t blow out everybody.
Pitt isn’t a slouch at 5-2 even though QB Mason Heintschel (who Miami tried to get to transfer this past offseason, causing bad blood between the two programs) is out for the season with a torn ACL. The Panthers have lost their last two games as they’ve tried to replace Heintschel, but I’m counting on Pitt coach Pat Narcuzzi to have his team up for this game. Longtime handicapper and frequent VSiN guest Marc Lawrence points out that Narcuzzi is 5-1 ATS in revenge games (they lost to Miami last year, in addition to the recruiting allegations) and also 8-1 ATS in road games at undefeated teams.
College Football Best Bet: Pittsburgh +20.5
#15 Iowa at Minnesota (+7)
Back to the Big Ten, Minnesota is a home underdog vs. Iowa. I’m 3-1 ATS in Minnesota games this season. I’m 2-1 ATS on them as dogs and 1-0 ATS fading them as favorites with Purdue in their last game two weeks ago, so I’ve watched the Golden Gophers more the past six weeks than the past six years. I’m much more comfortable when they’re in the underdog role, and we’re not getting a full TD at home. Iowa comes in at 5-1 with its only loss to Ohio State, but we successfully faded them back on Sept. 12 in their 16-13 win vs. Iowa State.
Minnesota can do the same thing here with QB Drake Lindsey averaging 222.5 yards per game and just enough run support to keep the defense honest. Iowa is certainly improved on offense over recent teams, but the Minnesota defense should contain them enough to keep this within one score. Lawrence also adds that the Golden Gophers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as Big Ten dogs.
College Football Best Bet: Minnesota +7
For more Week 8 college football best bets, visit the Week 8 College Football Betting Hub, exclusively on VSiN.com.
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