VSiN Director of Analytics Steve Makinen put together his College Football Playoff Analytics Report for the title game. Using those stats and trends and more, here are his CFP National Championship Game thoughts.
Miami (FL) vs. Indiana (-8.5/47.5)
As I’ve stared at the line and total for the CFP championship for almost a week, there are some simple thoughts that have overcome me. First, are oddsmakers putting any stock into the fact that Miami is playing “at home” for this game? It doesn’t feel like it.
Second, prior to the playoffs starting, I would have had the line for this game at around -6 with about half home-field advantage applied. Has there been 2.5-points of swing based upon what has happened the last few weeks? I know IU has won two routs, but Alabama was very overrated and was too, to a lesser degree.
And third, does Miami have much of a chance if this game starts getting up into the 30-point range for Indiana? To me, it’s not an automatic that the Hoosiers score a lot here, as Miami’s defense is extremely talented, probably the best IU has faced all season. QB Mendoza & Co. were held to 30-points or fewer five times this season. I don’t think Miami will play to an Over pace here, as they almost lost to Ole Miss in doing so. The Hurricanes need to run the ball more, and QB Beck needs to be a game manager for them to have a chance at an upset.
Of course, one of the other major factors that comes to mind for me in any given huge game is where the money is going. For this one, we have an astronomical 84% of the handle backing Indiana. Are the DK oddsmakers going to let this game sit at 8.5 for much longer with that type of disparity? Or are they comfortable with their position? It would be rather unprecedented to see yet another public favorite win big for the title, thus handing the books another big L.
On the total, I am obviously aware of the trend I just posted showing bettors moving totals having gone 0-12-1 in the last 13 games. However, there is more money on the Over here, yet the total is dropping. It sort of feels like a trap to me, seeing a total of 47.5 when the teams played semifinal games that posted 58 & 78 points. I also feel Miami can’t play to an Over pace or they could get beat bad. I am going to put my trust in their elite defense to keep them in this game. I’ll call for a 26-20 win for Indiana.
National Championship Best Bet: Give me leans of Miami +8.5 and Under 47.5 in the CFP title game
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