New College Football Betting Systems for the 2026 Season:
After a combination of bad reads, bad beats, and bad lines in college football last weekend, I had my worst Best Bet column performance since I started running the column about four years ago. I was 5-14-1 ATS, dropping my season record to 53-57-4 ATS. Did it raise concern for me going forward? No and yes. No in that I was very pleased with how my Effective Play by Play metrics did last week overall, 33-25 ATS. However, it did raise my concern that I felt like I was struggling to find enough reasons to play or fade teams, and it’s not just last week. I have felt this for about a month now. In the NFL, where I am doing very well this season, I feel like there is always a plethora of systematic data I can draw on when forming my opinions. Maybe it’s my fault I haven’t had time to put together new materials, especially since the sport has changed a lot in recent years with the transfer portal, extended eligibility, and NIL.
With that said, I decided to take a week off from posting my best bets and instead spent hours building a database of college football from the last 10 years, which I can dig into for new systems. I have the start of what I was unable to uncover below, with explanations and all of this week’s qualifying teams pulled out for you as well. These will all be on our College Football Analytics Reports going forward. Hopefully, between these systems and the full Week 7 Effective Play by Play line disparities article I posted earlier this week, you won’t miss my personal opinions one bit. The data couldn’t possibly do worse than I did a week ago.
Line/Total Range Angles
– In FBS vs. FBS games Week 5 or later with home favorites of -25 or higher, Over the total is 77-48 (61.6%) since 2020
Why it makes sense: Getting deeper into the season, team strengths are fairly evident already. When a home team gets favored by 25-points or more, you can assume oddsmakers believe that team is going to be able to score at will. With the opponent in catch-up mode for most of the game, Overs are the natural result.
Qualifying teams for Week 7: NONE – we have a few -20.5-point favorites, but none more than that
Last Game Angles
– Conference home favorites coming off a double-digit conference loss are just 217-291 ATS (42.7%) since 2016
Why it makes sense: This seems like a reliable momentum angle you can use often, as these home favorites are reeling from a bad loss the prior game and aren’t in great shape to cover a point spread in a game they are expected to win now.
Qualifying teams for Week 7: AGAINST Temple, Maryland, West Virginia, Vanderbilt, Kansas State
– Road favorites coming off a close loss of 10 points or fewer are just 72-108 ATS (40%) since 2022. Over the total is also 108-75 (59%) in these games
Why it makes sense: This is another momentum angle, as these teams are still trying to figure out what happened in their last loss. Close losses always feel like a missed opportunity; now oddsmakers put these teams in a difficult spot with a road chalk line that motivates the home dog.
Qualifying teams for Week 7: AGAINST Kennesaw State, Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, Pittsburgh, Arkansas State, San Jose State, Alabama, Tulsa, Fresno State. OVER the total is each of those teams’ games as well.
– Road underdogs of +27 or fewer are 125-68 ATS (64.8%) coming off a loss of 27 points or more since 2022. Under the total is also 110-83 (56.9%) in those games
Why it makes sense: These teams were blown out last game. Oddsmakers are hinting that the result won’t be nearly as bad this week.
Qualifying teams for Week 7: Colorado State, Charlotte, Rutgers, Ball State, Kent State, Cincinnati, Mississippi State
– Any team coming off a game scoring 60+ points is 87-60 ATS (59.2%) in the follow-up game since 2022
Why it makes sense: Hitting the 60-point mark in college football is obviously a major threshold. This team’s offense is red-hot. Why go against them a week later?
Qualifying teams for Week 7: Oregon State, New Mexico
– Teams playing in a home conference game after losing and yielding 48+ points to another conference rival the previous game are just 71-103 ATS (40.8%) since 2020
Why it makes sense: Essentially the opposite of the high-scoring offensive angle I just detailed. This one involves fading a team whose defense just got shredded in a conference loss. Even home cooking won’t fix the confidence issue this group is playing with most of the time.
Qualifying teams for week 7: AGAINST West Virginia, Southern Miss, LA Monroe, Vanderbilt, San Diego State
– Teams playing as road underdogs in conference play after a game in which they turned the ball over 4+ times have been huge Under plays on totals, 130-87 (59.9%) since 2016
Why it makes sense: The team just turned the ball over a lot last game, and is now hitting the road for a big conference game. The focus is probably shifting from making big plays to protecting the football. That is a conservative approach that often leads to Unders on totals.
Qualifying teams for Week 7: UNDER the total in Navy-UTSA
– Teams playing as home favorites after a game in which they forced 4+ turnovers are just 77-102 ATS (43%) since 2021
Why it makes sense: The opposite side of the turnover equation detailed in the system above. The team that forced the turnovers last week probably looked better on the scoreboard than it deserved to. That naturally gets reflected in follow-up game(s).
Qualifying teams for Week 7: Against Coastal Carolina? (-1.5 at press time), Ole Miss, UCLA
– Teams coming off a road conference upset loss in which they were favored by -7 or more have been big Under the total teams, 66-47 (58.4%) since 2021. These teams’ defensive points allowed fell from 31.8 PPG to 21.7 PPG.
Why it makes sense: Coming off a big road conference upset loss, it’s a good bet that this team’s defense underperformed in the setback. With a renewed focus, these defenses improve greatly the next game.
Qualifying teams for Week 7: UNDER the total in Virginia Tech-Georgia Tech and Mississippi State-LSU
– Small road underdog losses have been demoralizing for teams, as those coming off defeats in which they were road dogs of less than 3 points are just 68-120 ATS (36.2%) in the follow-up game since 2018.
Why it makes sense: These teams probably feel like they let one get away in their last game. That is a hard mentality to overcome a week later.
Qualifying teams for Week 7: AGAINST Central Michigan
– Minor conference upset wins haven’t been the momentum builder you’d think they would be, as teams coming off outright conference upsets when a dog of +3 points or fewer are just 67-96 ATS (41.1%) when favored at home in the follow up game.
Why it makes sense: Simply put, this feels like a letdown angle to me. Team wins big game as an underdog, now has a home game it is supposed to win. Sometimes flipping that mentality switch isn’t easy.
Qualifying teams for week 7: AGAINST Purdue, Houston, Georgia
Streak Angles
– Teams that have lost their last two games outright but won both ATS have been bad bets when playing as underdogs again in the next contest, going 54-84 ATS (39.1%) since 2017
Why it makes sense: Giving it the ole college try but coming up short might be admirable, but when it happens repeatedly, it becomes a disheartening things for a team to deal with.
Qualifying teams for Week 7: AGAINST Ball State, Boston College
– Teams that have won their last two games outright while losing both ATS have been fantastic when hosting a conference team in the next outing, 69-37 ATS (65.1%) since 2016
Why it makes sense: This team isn’t putting it all together, but it is still winning games. These wins can often prove to be valuable “coaching moments” that don’t bring a team down but make them better.
Qualifying teams for week 7: SMU
– Teams that have won back-to-back conference games both SU and ATS while being defensively dominant (<12 PPG allowed in those two games) have been tremendous when playing on the road in the next game, 58-31 ATS (65.2%) since 2019
Why it makes sense: This team isn’t taking care of business, winning and covering games against conference rivals. Its defense is suffocating opponents. Why step on the tracks in front of this train?
Qualifying teams for Week 7: Memphis, Wake Forest, Wisconsin, Missouri
– Teams that have won and covered three straight conference games are just 26-43 ATS (37.7%) in their last 69 games when going out of conference for the next contest
Why it makes sense: These teams are obviously negatively affected by the change and routine and perhaps a drop in motivation as well, as conference foes typically provide the greater focus level deeper in the season.
Qualifying teams for Week 7: NONE – these will be more prevalent the deeper we get into the conference season
– Teams that have lost their last three games SU and ATS, all in conference play, have gone just 64-96 ATS (40%) when hosting a conference foe in the next game
Why it makes sense: After three straight poor performances against conference foes, this team’s season is spiraling out of control. Don’t make the hero bet and think this reeling team is about to turn it around.
Qualifying teams for Week 7: NONE – West Virginia is the closest qualifier, going 0-3 SU but 0-2-1 ATS in L3 games
– When there is won-lost record difference of 5+ wins in any game, the better team is on an 89-53 ATS surge since 2016 when the line is not -21 or higher
Why it makes sense: There is an obvious talent difference in these teams, and oddsmakers haven’t applied overwhelming pressure on the better team. Perhaps the line might be getting perceived as disrespectful to the better team, and they make sure these wins are definitive.
Qualifying teams for week 7: NONE – the best is yet to come with this angle, as most of the qualifying plays for it have been in weeks 9 & later
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