Sun Belt
This originally appeared in our 2025 VSiN College Football Betting Guide released on Tuesday, August 5. Become a VSiN Pro Subscriber and get our betting guides as part of your subscription.
The Sun Belt, or as I call it, the Fun Belt, is the only conference in FBS college football that still uses divisions. It may also get a little less fun next year, as Texas State leaves for the rebirth of the Pac-12 and Louisiana Tech joins as the 14th member of the conference. For now, though, it is business as usual for the teams in the conference and it looks like we are in line for a fascinating season.
Last year’s Sun Belt Championship Game featured Marshall and Louisiana. The Ragin’ Cajuns have a chance to go back. The Thundering Herd look nothing like last season’s team. So, we’re extremely likely to have a new division champ in the East and could have a real battle in the West, which has historically been the weaker of the two divisions, but has ramped up recently.
James Madison is lined as the clear favorite to win the East, while we have five teams that are given a pretty good chance by the oddsmakers in the West, including three that have identical prices as we look ahead to the start of the 2025 season. As far as the conference winner as a whole, the path for the Dukes looks easier than the path for any team from the West, so JMU is the clear-cut choice as of now.
But, this is a conference that still has a ton of talent, even though SEC, ACC, and Big 12 teams poach Sun Belt standouts on an annual basis. It is also a conference with some new sideline bosses, though a relatively low turnover rate compared to other Group of Five leagues. Former South Carolina OC Dowell Loggains is the new head coach at App State, while Charles Huff moved from Huntington to Hattiesburg with a switch from Marshall to Southern Miss, and longtime West Virginia and NC State assistant Tony Gibson took over the Herd.
The Sun Belt is often a forgotten conference by bettors with all the SEC and ACC teams in the area, but don’t sleep on this league and the betting opportunities that it presents.
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EAST DIVISION
Appalachian State Mountaineers
The boys from Boone needed a fresh start and Dowell Loggains will attempt to provide it. The former NFL position coach and South Carolina OC has been tasked with returning to the standards that this proud program has had over the last decade-plus. App State is 93-36 since joining the Sun Belt and 62-22 in conference play. But, last season’s team went just 5-6 and had a losing season in SBC games for the second time in three years.
Shawn Clark went back to being a position coach at a Power Four program and that opened the door for Loggains to get his first crack at being a HC. He’ll call his own plays with a pretty good set of talented transfers, but basically a brand-new roster as the program rebuilds.
Offense
AJ Swann and JJ Kohl couldn’t crack the depth charts at LSU and Iowa State, but those are not easy gigs to take over at the QB position. Both find themselves in Boone, as Swann did get some starts for Vanderbilt in 2023 and Kohl, who stands 6-foot-7 and was a four-star QB out of Ankeny High School in Iowa, will see the field this season. The 44-year-old Loggains did a pretty good job with a Power Five transfer by the name of Spencer Rattler and also ran last year’s Gamecocks offense with LaNorris Sellers.
Running back transfers from Arkansas and Tennessee join wide receivers all looking for a fresh start. The WR position is the one with the most question marks, but this is a new offensive installation, so returning production may have been overrated anyway. With an inexperienced offensive line, Swann and Kohl will have to be creative and I bet we see a lot of quick throws.
Defense
DJ Smith is back after a three-year stint with Missouri. He played at App State in the late 2000s and now gets a homecoming with a group that badly needs to improve in a few key areas. The Mountaineers only had 13 takeaways in 11 games. Moreover, only four of those 13 takeaways were interceptions. Only New Mexico, Akron, and Central Michigan had fewer picks. In all, App State was -12 in interception margin.
The other area the Mountaineers fell off is on the sack front, as they had 12 fewer sacks, leading to 0.8 more yards per play for the opposition. It was an egregiously bad performance with 6.5 yards per play allowed, easily the most in App State’s FBS tenure. Four of the top six tacklers are back, but obviously new personnel and a new voice have to help.
Outlook
The Mountaineers look like a team ready to turn it around quickly. There is a lot of talent here, but this may be a team that looks better without finishing that much better in the standings. They play at James Madison and Old Dominion, plus they play at Boise State in non-conference. Their last two games are two of the easiest, though, and bowl eligibility is likely to be hanging in the balance.
Pick: Over 5.5 Wins
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Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
An underwhelming 13-12 start for Tim Beck on the heels of all the success that Jamey Chadwell experienced in Conway could come to a head this season. This is Year 3 of a five-year deal for Beck and a bowl streak that dates back five seasons is on the line in 2025. Given that the non-conference slate features road trips to Virginia and South Carolina and the conference slate has visits to Old Dominion, App State, and Georgia Southern, it’s a tough road.
Two new coordinators are here, with OC Drew Hollingshead and DC Jeremiah Johnson. Johnson is the more exciting of the two hires after a magnificent season with Louisiana Tech that saw the Bulldogs finish in the top 10 in yards per play allowed. With more than 60 newcomers for the second straight season, more questions exist than answers.
Offense
The first question to answer is who will start at quarterback? MJ Morris is at his third school after stops at NC State and Maryland. Emmett Brown came across the country from San Jose State. Holdover Tad Hudson started the Myrtle Beach Bowl loss to UTSA. At least there are options for Beck and Hollingshead. None of them are particularly proven, but there are options. And picking the right one matters because Hollingshead came over from Western Kentucky where they threw the ball a lot.
In that respect, bringing back three of the top four wide receivers is a good thing. On the whole, the QB play was a disappointment last season, as the team’s leading receiver had 33 catches for 574 yards. The running backs collectively had their best season since 2021, but both are gone after averaging 5.8 and 5.3 yards per carry, respectively.
Defense
The defense took a step back last season as well, allowing more than 31 points for the second time in three seasons. The last time it happened because everybody knew Chadwell wanted out and the team sort of mailed it in on that side of the ball. This time it happened because the personnel just wasn’t very good. The Chanticleers allowed six yards per play and a second straight season with 4.7 YPC.
Johnson had a phenomenal base defense that allowed just 4.7 YPP and 3.6 YPC at LA Tech. That said, the Bulldogs had a modest total of 17 turnovers and only five were interceptions, as their 12 fumble recoveries tied for sixth nationally. It is a skill to go for the ball, though, so expect Coastal Carolina to try and mimic that success. For all their success against the run, the LT defense still only had 22 sacks.
Outlook
It wouldn’t be surprising to see modest improvements on both sides of the ball, but I don’t think that gets Coastal Carolina to six wins with this schedule. I think they’ll be favored in four games and any slip up there will make it virtually impossible to get to six wins. And if the bowl eligibility streak ends, does Tim Beck’s tenure?
Pick: Under 5.5 Wins
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Georgia Southern Eagles
It used to be pretty common to believe that new coaching hires would break through in Year 3. It’s much harder nowadays to establish continuity within a program and have that upward trajectory. Perhaps that’s what we’re seeing at Georgia Southern, though, as Clay Helton’s Eagles had a couple of 6-7 seasons in 2022 and 2023 before bumping up to 8-5 last season.
While they did lose a bowl game for the third straight time under Helton, Georgia Southern’s 6-2 record in Sun Belt play matched the number of wins from his first two seasons. That said, Georgia Southern was still nearly -0.4 yards per play in conference games, and gave up more yards per play to losing teams (6.44) than winning teams (6.43) over the same number of regular season games (6).
Offense
JC French is Helton’s first returning starter at QB, hence some of the optimism around the team. Of course, he also put up the worst numbers of the QBs in Helton’s seasons in Statesboro with just a 17/11 TD/INT ratio. French has now played 23 games under Helton, so he does know the offense inside and out, but the team had its worst performance in YPP, PPG, and YPC in 2024 with that Helton offense.
The Eagles have to replace leading rusher Jalen White, who had 13 rushing TD while nobody else had more than four, though new starter OJ Arnold was better on a per-carry basis. Top WR Derwin Burgess also moved on, but the No. 2 and No. 3 catchers are back. Still, while it is easy to get excited about the returning production here, especially relative to other teams in the division, the ceiling seems a lot lower for this group than Helton’s 2022 and 2023 ones.
Defense
Third-year DC Brandon Bailey does bring back quite a bit, though top tackler Marques Watson-Trent and his 118 stops are gone after winning the conference’s Defensive Player of the Year award. This defense wasn’t any better than the two previous ones and actually regressed from Bailey’s first year. At least they had 19 takeaways, including 13 interceptions, to offset the offense’s inability to protect the ball.
The secondary looks good again, but a pass rush will be tough to come by yet again. In Helton’s three seasons, the Eagles have just 64 sacks and no more than 23 in a season. The defense will have to come together quickly with back-to-back games in California, including one against Helton’s old employer at the Coliseum in LA.
Outlook
I don’t see the hype from other publications on this team. There are returning starters, including the QB, but he’s a pedestrian QB at best. The Eagles play at James Madison and at App State, plus they also face some improved teams at home. There are a lot of toss-up games on the schedule, but I don’t like this team much.
Pick: Under 7.5 Wins
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Georgia State Panthers
Were you wondering what Hue Jackson is doing? As a Browns fan who endured his 1-33 stretch in 2016-17, I was not. But if you were, I’m pleased to tell you that he is Georgia State’s new offensive coordinator, as the Panthers look to bounce back from a down year. First-year head coach Dell McGee had a rough 3-9 campaign in his rookie season in Atlanta, but there were some shocking positives. Namely, two of the three wins were Vanderbilt and Texas State in a blowout.
McGee took over pretty late in the process with limited access to the portal last season and that’s a big reason why he was hired, as he was the run game coordinator and running backs coach at Georgia. So a portal presence would have been helpful. Well, he had one this winter.
Offense
The Browns going 1-15 and then 0-16 on Jackson’s watch wasn’t all his fault, as his QBs were Cody Kessler, DeShone Kizer, Josh McCown, Kevin Hogan, Robert Griffin III, and Charlie Whitehurst. The 59-year-old has been coaching at the college level since 2021 and was actually Grambling’s head coach for two seasons, where they went 8-14. Anyway, he’s a football lifer and this offense had 23.8 PPG last season, so improvement seems feasible.
He was the program’s assistant GM last season, so he’s familiar with the personnel, including returning QB Christian Veilleux. Despite a bunch of other failures, the Panthers did have two backs with well over five yards per carry, but they’re both gone. Georgia and Ole Miss transfers will help and shows what McGee is capable of in the portal. The talent level is simply higher across the board.
Defense
McGee also has a new coordinator on defense, as Travis Pearson came over from Troy. Pearson was coaching defensive backs and given that there are no returnees in the secondary, that could be an astute hire. Georgia State actually allowed a 63.2% completion rate that ranked in the bottom 35 last season, but they only allowed 208 passing yards per game.
Only having 18 sacks didn’t help and Troy was extremely good at getting to the QB prior to last season, so Pearson could help there. He has a blank slate with a lot of new faces, including a smattering of Power Four players, though not nearly as many as the offense.
Outlook
I think we see Georgia State take some major strides on offense. If the defense can improve at all, this is a far more interesting team than last year’s group that went 1-7 in SBC play and gave up 36 PPG. Their schedule is brutal, though. I think we look to bet Overs on a weekly basis with this team early. As far as a win total, four wins looks like the absolute max, as they may only be favored twice.
Pick: Under 3.5 Wins
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James Madison Dukes
The absences of head coach Curt Cignetti, starting QB Jordan McCloud, and others meant that a drop-off for James Madison was inevitable. The 9-4 record after an 11-2 season makes it look worse than it was. Under first-year head coach Bob Chesney, the Dukes scored 0.8 fewer points per game on 0.3 fewer yards per play and allowed one more point per game while actually giving up fewer yards per play.
Of course, the early-season 70-50 game against North Carolina skewed all kinds of metrics. I do think there were some oddities, and maybe even some concerning developments. The Dukes fell to 4-4 in conference play. They were +20 in turnover margin and +7 in conference play. The range of outcomes seems fairly wide this season.
Offense
QB Alonza Barrett is back after posting a 26/4 TD/INT ratio and seven additional rushing touchdowns. OC Dean Kennedy could also have some fun with UNLV transfer Matthew Sluka, who ran for 253 yards and made three starts before an NIL disagreement with the program. The quarterback position is set and so is the running back position with George Pettaway, who had six yards per carry, plus the return of Ayo Adeyi, who was a monster at North Texas.
Unfortunately, the offensive line and the wide receiver room have been picked apart by the portal and graduation. The top returning pass catcher is TE Logan Kyle with 11 grabs. The offensive line has several new faces and that unit allowed 10 more sacks year over year from 2023 to 2024 to begin with.
Defense
Lyle Hemphill left for a job at Texas A&M, so the Dukes picked up Colin Hitschler, who could be an outstanding hire. He’s worked under Marcus Freeman, Luke Fickell, and Kalen DeBoer/Kane Wommack the last three seasons. Those are some brilliant defensive minds. I don’t think the standards of the JMU defense are going to drop at all with him at the helm.
Hitschler does have to find a pass rusher following the departures of Eric O’Neill (13 sacks) and Khairi Manns (9 sacks) and some of the top ball-hawks from a defense that had more interceptions (17) than touchdowns (16) against. The +20 TO margin is likely not repeatable and the talent level might be lower on defense, but Hitschler is a very promising pickup.
Outlook
The Dukes led the nation with 29 takeaways and tied for third in the nation with nine giveaways. That’s not sustainable, but it doesn’t have to be for JMU to get Over 7.5 wins. They do draw a rested Louisiana team and have a random home game against Washington State late in the year. I honestly think a repeat of last year’s 8-4 is the most likely outcome, but the juice is a little cost-prohibitive.
Pick: Over 7.5 Wins
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Marshall Thundering Herd
It is a damn shame what happened at Marshall last December. The Thundering Herd had to back out of their bowl game because the athletic department and the university did not extend head coach Charles Huff, who literally led the team to the conference title, their first in a decade. Huff left for Southern Miss and most of the roster left for various places around the country, many to Southern Miss.
Tony Gibson, a longtime assistant at West Virginia and NC State, as well as a WV native, was hired right after Huff’s departure and he has a brand-new roster. It feels like you can say that about a lot of teams, but it’s especially true here. One player with at least eight receptions is back. All three QBs that played in a game are gone. No RB on the roster had a rushing yard for the team. One defender with at least 17 tackles came back. It will be a long year.
Offense
The portal did produce some interesting names for the Herd. Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Syracuse) and Zion Turner (Jacksonville State) lead the charge for reps at the QB position. RB Tony Mathis was at Houston and WR Antonio Harmon was at Mississippi State. There are a lot of upperclassmen here who are simply looking for one more chance to impress or one more opportunity to play college ball.
OC Rod Smith did not follow RichRod to WVU, instead becoming the OC here. Jacksonville State really benefitted from having Tyler Huff at QB, a dual-threat guy with some mammoth numbers in the RichRod offense. I’m not sure if anybody can do that here. Furthermore, while there are a lot of juniors and seniors, very few of them had meaningful playing time at their previous stops.
Defense
The story is the same on defense, where DC Shannon Morrison is back in Huntington for the fourth time. Technically one starter is back, plus a transfer who started at Middle Tennessee. The defensive numbers were terrific last season and a big catalyst as to why Marshall won the Sun Belt, going 10-3 after a 6-7 season. But, with nobody back, we’ll have to wait and see how it goes.
On the plus side, Morrison was the linebackers coach from 2021-23 when Marshall allowed 23.8, 16.0, and 28.7 points per game and solid yards per play numbers. The base defense should remain similar to what Marshall had been running while he was there and for most of Huff’s tenure, so the backups that stayed can grasp it quickly and maybe that helps this defense exceed expectations.
Outlook
I do think that the last statement about the defense will be true, so Marshall might be a good Under bet on a week-to-week basis early on. The offense needs a ton of work, though. A lot of the “softer” opponents on the schedule are on the road and Gibson as a first-year head coach could be a really tough time.
Pick: Under 5.5 Wins
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Old Dominion Monarchs
One of the more intriguing teams in the Sun Belt this season is Old Dominion. Ricky Rahne inherited a 1-11 team for the 2020 season, but then COVID happened and his first season at the helm had to wait until 2021, as the Monarchs cancelled all of their games. In four seasons since, there have been two bowl appearances, both losses, and zero winning seasons. The talent level seems to be improved and QB Colton Joseph could be among the best in the SBC.
But, also, this is a team that has played a ton of close games that can swing the balance either way. Last year’s team went 5-7 and lost by 4 to open the season against South Carolina and the seven losses were by 56 combined points, including a 20-point loss to Virginia Tech. The five wins were by 3, 7, 10, 28, and 8. So outside of the two outliers, this was a team that had a lot of games decided in the fourth quarter and that could be the case again.
Offense
Joseph was a revelation for the Monarchs last season. The dual-threat sophomore had 22 total touchdowns with 11 through the air and on the ground. He was the team’s second-leading rusher with 647 yards and was an integral part of the team’s sack total going from 61 down to 36. This has not been a good pass-blocking OL during Rahne’s tenure and it may not be again, but at least Joseph gives them a chance on broken plays.
None of the wide receivers are back and neither is leading rusher Aaron Young, as the top two returnees in the rushing department are both QBs. Year over year, now third-year OC Kevin Decker saw an improvement of 4.2 PPG and 0.5 YPP. There is reason for optimism that it all clicks this season with Joseph, who grasped the offense quickly, at the helm.
Defense
The defense hasn’t been good enough to stand out. And since the offense really hasn’t been either, that’s how you get a bunch of close games and mediocre seasons. Three of the top four tacklers are back, but the secondary is brand new and that’s the major concern. Also, Rahne and DC Blake Seiler have been together for all four of the seasons that ODU has played. In that span, the team is -62 in sack differential and -8 in TO margin.
Last year’s D did have 17 takeaways and 12 of them were interceptions. However, they were 102nd in third-down defense and that has to change to get the offense back on the field, and maybe with some better field position. I think Seiler might be on the hot seat and maybe that’s addition by subtraction, as the Monarchs dropped off dramatically in third-down stops from 2023 to 2024.
Outlook
As is often the case with schools that have pretty modest athletic budgets, Old Dominion plays two Power Four road games and they’ll also host a good Liberty team. The conference schedule is no picnic, especially with some of their tougher East Division games on the road. Their crossover games are ULM and Troy, though, so those are appealing. Still, 6-6 or 5-7 seems right, even with the vig.
Pick: Under 6.5 Wins
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WEST DIVISION
Arkansas State Red Wolves
The 2024 season was a big one for Arkansas State. Butch Jones put all the proper pieces together and scored his first bowl win and winning record in appropriately-named Jonesboro. After a very unimpressive win over Central Arkansas to begin the season, the 8-5 ending was not something that many people expected. Seven of the Red Wolves’ eight wins were by seven or fewer points and four of those were by four or fewer points.
Interestingly, three of the five losses were by 45, 32, and 36 points, so the statistical profile for the team was pretty skewed and a little tough to decipher. Nevertheless, it was the fourth straight season with an improved record for Jones, who basically tore it all down and started over during his 2-10 first season in 2021.
Offense
In the NIL era, keeping a QB like Jaylen Raynor is not easy. Jones is better equipped for the potential of life without Raynor thanks to redshirt freshman Josh Flowers, but this is still Raynor’s team for at least this year and maybe more. He has a 33/17 TD/INT ratio over two seasons with a 60.3% completion rate and 5,333 passing yards. He’ll likely be the third-leading passer in program history when the 2025 season is done.
So Raynor is a good start and he’s mobile enough to get some rushing yards and extend some plays. What also helps is that top target Corey Rucker is back after having 1,053 receiving yards last season, more than double the next highest guy. RB Ja’Quez Cross is the next highest returning pass catcher and he was a better runner on a per-carry basis than the previous guy. This offense should be quite solid as long as the offensive line can gel.
Defense
But, this defense looks like a potential problem area yet again. New DC Griff McCarley was simply promoted from within and this defense gave up 6.9 yards per play last season. Only Ball State, Kent State, and Tulsa were worse in that department. The Red Wolves were also 125th in third-down defense and 130th in TD% allowed in the red zone.
It will be interesting to see if it was a talent issue, scheme issue, play-calling issue, or all of the above. McCarley is one of the youngest coordinators in FBS and was only on the Arkansas State staff for a year before this promotion. Jones said they did an exhaustive search and went with the in-house candidate. So, even though the top returning tackler only had 24 tackles, that’s probably not a bad thing.
Outlook
Look, there are a litany of reasons to be skeptical of Arkansas State. They went 8-5 despite being -1.7 in yards per play differential. They won a ton of close games. Regression seems very, very likely. But I think there’s enough talent here and I’m encouraged enough about the DC hire to see them getting to six wins.
Pick: Over 5.5 Wins
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Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns
When Billy Napier left for Florida, he left some very large shoes to fill in the Bayou. The Ragin’ Cajuns won 11, 10, and 13 games in his final three seasons. Rather than disrupt the apple cart, the school decided to promote longtime assistant and former Louisiana QB Michael Desormeaux to the head coach role. After a couple of pedestrian 6-7 seasons, everything came together last year for a 10-4 campaign.
Even though a ton of talent left the program, including QBs Ben Wooldridge and Chandler Fields, Louisiana only brought in seven transfers per 247. One is LSU recruit Walker Howard at QB, but beyond that, the program is betting on their backups from last season to find a way to sustain the renewed success.
Offense
The fairly undersized Howard was the sixth-ranked QB in his class and a four-star recruit who stayed at home and committed to LSU. After a season, he transferred to Ole Miss and sat behind Jaxson Dart. Now he’s in Lafayette, probably hoping to shine enough for a Power Four chance in his final season of eligibility next year. Nevertheless, he is a talented, potential-filled player who will have to develop chemistry with a new set of receivers.
The Ragin’ Cajuns do have their top two rushers back from last season and it was a group with 4.8 YPC, but the top returning receiver had 26 catches. LSU transfer Shelton Sampson is one of the transfers brought in by the thrifty administration, so they’ve clearly identified that as a position of need. The offensive line seems like one as well, but it was not prioritized in the portal.
Defense
There are some returning standouts at each level of the defense, but the top five tacklers are all gone. This was also a defense that helped produce a +10 TO margin, including a +7 interception margin. Given that the Ragin’ Cajuns only had 24 sacks, their cover guys really stood out for first-year DC Jim Salgado. One other area that helped the team as a whole, and especially the defense, was special teams, where Luke Paschall has put together an outstanding group.
But some of those guys were among the defenders who left. It seems highly likely that we see the defense fall back a bit. Even in 2022, when Louisiana had better defensive numbers against than last season, they went 7-6. I’m very skeptical here, as Salgado had a lot of experience on his defense last season compared to this season.
Outlook
Louisiana got gifted an easy schedule last year because teams like Coastal Carolina and App State in the crossover games had major issues. They did beat Wake Forest and hang right with Tulane in the non-conference action, but the West was pretty bad last year. It’s sort of a similar thing this year, so even though I think this team has regressed, the schedule looks more like 8-4 than 7-5.
Pick: Over 7.5 Wins
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South Alabama Jaguars
In my mind, a drop-off for South Alabama was inevitable last season. The Jaguars bid adieu to head coach Kane Wommack, who moved on to Alabama to be Kalen DeBoer’s DC. Corey Batoon, who was South Alabama’s DC, took a job with Missouri. OC Major Applewhite was promoted to head coach for another kick at the can after a mediocre stint at Houston for a couple of seasons.
Well, the Jaguars did drop in terms of defensive numbers, but improved on the offensive front and replicated their 7-6 record from the previous season. In that respect, it was a hell of a coaching job from Applewhite and DC Will Windham. Unfortunately for the Jaguars, the task at hand looks much more difficult this season thanks to some impact transfers and other personnel losses.
Offense
The NIL has created a very unlevel playing field out in the open. Paying players and providing extra benefits has happened forever, but now you get bidding wars akin to free agency. The chance to make ample money in college, especially with very limited NFL prospects, is extremely attractive. So, Group of Five programs have a really hard time holding onto their quarterbacks.
Gio Lopez is an example, as he transferred to North Carolina. UNC didn’t really have to fight for Lopez, per his own account of how the situation went down, but it left a big hole in the South Alabama roster after racking up over 3,000 total yards last season. Zach Pyron and some internal candidates have to replace 25 total TDs, while also missing top WR Jamaal Pritchett, who had over 1,000 yards. Leading rusher Fluff Bothwell left as well.
Defense
The losses of Wommack and Batoon were clear as day. The defense allowed 4.2 more PPG and 0.8 more YPP. The offense was able to pick up the slack and a win in the Veterans Bowl over Western Michigan swung the balance of a 6-6 season into a winning one. Leading tackler Blaine Myrick is back, but that’s really about it. Only one other player with more than 25 tackles has returned.
With Batoon and Wommack in 2023, the Jaguars were 28th in third-down defense and 16th in 2022. With Windham and some of the attrition on the depth chart, the Jags dropped to 67th. This is the side of the ball that worries me the most, particularly because the team was +8 in TO margin, as Lopez only threw five interceptions. With a clear downgrade at that position, the impact will be felt on defense, too.
Outlook
Back-to-back seasons with big WR losses (Caullin Lacy, Pritchett), a QB transfer, declining defensive numbers, and improved teams in the Sun Belt make me think that this year will be the drop-off that I expected last year. The vig is somewhat cost-prohibitive on Under 7.5 Wins, but I really see 7-5 as a best-case scenario.
Pick: Under 7.5 Wins
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Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Marshall’s stupidity is Southern Mississippi’s gain, as the Golden Eagles were able to hire Charles Huff after the Thundering Herd opted not to give him a new contract. That’s not to say that Huff will come in and be a magic man for a team that went 1-11 last season and has one winning season since 2019. But, it at least represents some hope and optimism in Hattiesburg, as Huff comes in off of winning the Sun Belt title.
Reps and roster spots are going to be open on a 1-11 team and a lot of Marshall players followed Huff south, so this could be a hastened rebuild to say the least. Most of last year’s roster left anyway, but you won’t miss many players from a team that finished 10 games under .500 and was outscored 38-15 on average as a new head coach.
Offense
Not only are a lot of Marshall players on the two-deep, but there are a few SEC transfers as well, including RB Jeffrey Pittman (Mississippi State), WR Micah Davis (Mississippi), and OL Aaryn Parks (South Carolina). It takes very little to raise the bar for a program that was -19 in TO margin and mustered just 4.7 yards per play with 45 sacks against, but Huff and OC Blake Anderson have the chance to raise the bar several notches.
Anderson spent several seasons as an OC before getting his first head coaching job at Arkansas State. He left Utah State under some questionable circumstances, but Huff hired him to run the offense anyway. Braylon Braxton has child-sized shoes to fill at QB after the Golden Eagles combined for a 7/17 TD/INT ratio with a trio of QBs. The top WR had 421 yards. Whatever happens here, it will be better than last year.
Defense
Defensively, Marshall transfers dot the two-deep as well and that is not a surprise with new DC Jason Semore, who was with Huff in Huntington. Broadarius Lewis led the Golden Eagles with four of the team’s 20 sacks and he opted to stick around, along with top returning tackler (46) Chris Jones.
Huff was at Marshall from 2021-24 with a defense that allowed 23.8, 16.0, 28.7, and 23.1 PPG and 5.1, 4.6, 5.5, and 5.4 YPP. Semore was his DC for the final two seasons. Marshall also had at least 35 sacks in each of Huff’s four seasons. Southern Miss had 44 back in 2022 and no more than 25 any other season. Like the offense, this should be a good turnaround.
Outlook
Everybody knows Southern Miss will be significantly better. How much better is the question? Their win total of 4.5 is very heavily juiced to the Over, a sign that maybe we’ll see a 5.5 with juice swinging the other way at some point. The schedule is very manageable with one Power Four opponent (at home, no less) and two C-USA teams in other non-conference action.
Pick: Over 4.5 Wins
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Texas State Bobcats
Texas State will join the second coming of the Pac-12 next season, as the Bobcats have been a Sun Belt member since 2013. They were a member of the WAC when they transitioned to FBS in 2012. In that time, the Bobcats have two bowl appearances. Both under G.J. Kinne. Both in the last two seasons. Both wins in the First Responder Bowl.
But, that was not the goal for Texas State last season. They wanted more. And, frankly, they should have had more. They were favored in all 13 games, lost five of them, and only went 6-7 ATS. They nearly lost to a guy playing QB for the first time since 9th grade in their bowl game as a two-touchdown favorite. Back-to-back 8-5 seasons are good, especially for a program that had one winning season (2014) prior, but it’s time to raise the ceiling.
Offense
Texas State had a pretty highly-touted transfer in Jordan McCloud at QB last season, as he came over from a big year at James Madison. This season, the Bobcats have SMU transfer Keldric Luster and Auburn transfer Holden Geriner to go with a handful of other options. Luster, Geriner, and the others are nowhere near as accomplished or experienced as McCloud, who had 30 TD passes last season, but also 13 interceptions.
This is a transfer-heavy team on both sides of the ball. The offense is replacing three receivers with at least 630 yards each, a 1,000-yard running back, and most of the linemen. Kinne is a rapid riser in the coaching ranks and an innovative offensive mind, but this is an on-the-fly rebuild to say the least.
Defense
The defense is also a work in progress with three guys back that had at least 30 tackles. The one benefit is that Texas State worked in a lot of guys last season, so the backups that have been elevated up the depth chart are not completely green. Kalil Alexander had 6.5 of the team’s 36 sacks last season and is a big piece, literally and figuratively, to bring back.
There are a lot of transfers from bigger programs on the roster as well, so this side of the ball projects much like the offense. Though it is worth noting that DC Dexter McCoil improved the defense by 8.3 PPG and 0.4 YPP in his first season compared to what happened in 2023. That was even with a -5 TO margin, as the Bobcats offense gave it away 23 times.
Outlook
I think the market is down a bit on Texas State because they did absolutely fall short of expectations last season as a favorite in every game with five outright losses in that role. Road games at UTSA and Arizona State are also very tough. But, I do think they are 2-2 at worst in non-conference and 6-2 in Sun Belt play is not a stretch, especially at plus money on Over 7.5.
Pick: Over 7.5 Wins
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Troy Trojans
Troy head coach Gerad Parker should be on high alert this season. Larry Blakeney was Troy’s head coach from 1991-2014. Neal Brown took over in 2015 and opened 4-8, but then rattled off three straight double-digit winning seasons. Then Chip Lindsey took over and he was fired before the end of his third season after a trio of five-win campaigns. Then Jon Sumrall took over and went 23-4 over two seasons before taking over at Tulane.
This is a program with very high standards, given that they’ve had five seasons with at least 10 wins over the last decade. The athletic department didn’t have much sympathy or patience for Lindsey’s 15-20 record and Parker’s very underwhelming 4-8 debut fell well short of those standards. The Trojans did win three of four to end last season, so maybe the arrow is pointing up.
Offense
Maybe there is some sympathy from the decision-makers for how Parker’s tenure began. The Trojans had to use three different QBs because two of them suffered season-ending injuries. Those two guys are back, as Goose Crowder and Tucker Kilcrease will battle for reps. Crowder was the more impressive of the two statistically, but one of his starts was against Florida A&M.
One year removed from losing all-time leading rusher Kimani Vidal, the Trojans bid adieu to another 1,000-yard runner in Damien Taylor. They’ll likely find a back, but the efficiency numbers across the map for Troy are likely to drop, especially with a 1,000-yard receiver who hauled in 11 of the team’s 21 receiving touchdowns gone.
Defense
While the offense was in a state of flux most of the season, the more problematic side of the ball was this one. The Sumrall defenses allowed 17.1 PPG in each season and 4.7 and 4.8 yards per play, respectively. DC Dontae Wright’s unit allowed 28.4 PPG and 6.0 YPP. It was the first time since 2019 – the first Lindsey season – that Troy allowed at least 6.0 YPP. Brendan Jackson, who had twice as many tackles for loss as anybody else, is a noteworthy loss.
Otherwise, the coaching staff hit the portal really hard to find improved talent. Not many of them came from power programs and this defense looks to be a little bit undersized at the point of attack. Maybe that will help increase the sack total of just 19 from last season, as Sumrall’s two defenses had 88 sacks over two years. It could also hurt the yards per carry numbers if they’re looking at more speed than strength.
Outlook
I’m down on Troy again this season. I was down on the hire of Parker and I don’t see things going all that much better in Year 2. The only non-conference game Troy will be favored in is against a FCS opponent. They get a decent Old Dominion team along with a Georgia State team that may be much improved in crossover play.
Pick: Under 5.5 Wins
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UL Monroe Warhawks
The Warhawks started 5-1 last year under first-year head coach Bryant Vincent, but failed to win another game, extending their bowl game drought to 12 seasons. In fact, that 2012 Independence Bowl is their only bowl appearance since re-joining the FBS in 1994.
What Vincent accomplished over the first six games ultimately got overshadowed by the final six, as a complete lack of depth and four road games prevented his team from getting that all-important sixth win. But, I truly believe Vincent is one of the game’s most underrated coaches. It’s going to take several upsets to find a bowl berth, but I think they have a shot.
Offense
Vincent was a solid OC at UAB under Bill Clark and had immense support from the players to be named the full-time head coach when Clark retired due to medical issues. Instead, the UAB administration went in a different direction. Vincent found himself at New Mexico as the OC and the Lobos went from 13.1 PPG and 4.0 YPP to 27.3 PPG and 6.2 YPP. Louisiana-Monroe noticed and hired him as head coach.
He serves as his own OC as well and has a QB in Aidan Armenta who is much more aware of the playbook. He’ll share some time and plays with 6-foot-4 Hunter Herring, and while the stats of those two guys are not impressive, I can’t help but think Vincent squeezes improvement from both of them. Unfortunately Ahmad Hardy ran for 1,351 yards and he’s gone. There are a lot of new faces, but Vincent should have players better tailored to his scheme.
Defense
The Warhawks also took a notable leap defensively last year, as they shaved off more than six points per game and a half-yard per play. They finished -6 in TO margin in Sun Belt play and that’s what will have to improve to sniff bowl eligibility. ULM only had two interceptions in eight conference games. On offense, they threw 10 of them. DC Earnest Hill is relying on a lot of JUCO transfers to aid this unit.
Even though they didn’t have a lot of picks, the pass defense was 22nd in the nation in passing yards per game against and in top 40 in completion percentage. With two 330-pound transfers on the interior of the defensive line, the run defense should get stronger after allowing 200 YPG.
Outlook
There are four or five swing games on the schedule for ULM with short lines one way or the other. To me, the season hinges on how Armenta and Herring improve at QB. If Vincent works his offensive magic, this team gets at least five wins and even has a shot at a bowl game. If you couldn’t tell, I’m high on him as a coach.
Pick: Over 4.5 Wins
