College Football Betting Guide Best Bets
DAVE ROSS
Virginia Tech Over 6.5 Wins (-140) & Alt Over 7.5 Wins (+120)
I’m going with the silver-bullet approach: one shot. Firing on all Virginia Tech futures. Over 6.5 at -140 and adjusted Over 7.5 at +120.
I love their chances this year to really compete in year one under James Franklin. The funny thing is, he was in the CFP semis two years ago and then ran out of Happy Valley for Blacksburg. One man’s trash is another man’s treasure. He’ll thrive in Hokieland, and keeping Brent Pry as the DC is the hidden gem. One of the best, if not the biggest, winners in the portal. Don’t be surprised if they find themselves in Charlotte playing for an ACC title this year. I won’t be.
MATT YOUMANS
Fresno State Over 6.5 Wins (-120)
Matt Entz coached North Dakota State to two FCS national championships in five years and compiled a 60-11 record. Last year, he took over a losing Fresno team and produced a 9-4 finish. That team was limited by mediocre quarterback play, and Entz brought in Maryland transfer Khristian Martin, a dual-threat playmaker. Four of the top five pass catchers are returning, including leading receiver Josiah Freeman. Three of the top offensive linemen in the Pac-12 pave the way for experienced running backs Bryson Donelson and Rayshon Luke. The Bulldogs host Boise State on Oct. 10 in what could be the most important matchup of Pac-12 play. Entz coached Fresno, a 17-point underdog, to a 30-7 win at Boise last year. After a trip to USC in early September, Fresno has a realistic shot to reel off three consecutive wins against Sacramento State, San Jose State and Rice. Circa Sports posted 6.5 with the league’s 12th flex game included in the win total.
Michigan Under 8.5 Wins (-160)
The Big Ten is loaded again this season — starting with Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana — and the Wolverines have been losing ground. The fallout from the Jim Harbaugh era ended with the firing of Sherrone Moore, who led a clumsy coaching staff that failed to develop freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood. The talent level is down and the schedule’s degree of difficulty is up. Michigan will play the Buckeyes and Ducks on the road and host Indiana, Iowa, Penn State and Oklahoma. The hiring of veteran coach Kyle Whittingham is a huge positive, but almost everything would need to go right for the Wolverines to win nine games, and it’s more likely Whittingham will go 7-5. The price is getting high (-160 or more), but pay it.
DAVE TULEY
Texas To Win SEC (+295) & National Championship (+700)
Longtime readers of my Tuley’s Takes columns, especially in horse racing, know I am not deterred when a bet on a team (or horse) comes up short, as I’d rather be too early on a team/horse peaking than too late. Last year, I bet Texas to win the CFB Playoff and obviously came up short as QB Arch Manning didn’t reach his well-bred potential as early as I was hoping, The Longhorns had a disappointing season but showed signs of competence, and I’m hoping that I was just a year too early (similar to me betting the Detroit Lions to win this season’s Super Bowl after losing with them last year). Texas is the second-betting choice in the SEC behind Georgia, and obviously we’re hoping they win the conference on the way to the CFB Playoff and natty.
Indiana To Win Big Ten (+245)
Also last year, I wasn’t a believer in Indiana for most of the season, but fortunately grabbed the Hoosiers at +330 to win the College Football Playoff in the VSiN Bowl Betting Guide and rode them to the title. Obviously they lost Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza as the NFL’s No. 1 overall draft pick, but coach Curt Cignetti has to be given his due for one of the biggest turnarounds in not only CFB but sports history with the Indiana football program, and I’m confident he’ll have them in the running again. It looks like a three-horse race in the Big Ten between Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon, so +245 is a fair price. And I might also take a shot at the Hoosiers to repeat as national champions, as it feels like they’re being overlooked at just short of 13-1.
Toledo To Win MAC (+365)
As an alumnus of Northern Illinois (class of 1988), I’ve been a longtime fan of the Mid-American Conference. I have mixed feelings about the Huskies moving to the Mountain West Conference this season, as I’ll be able to go to their games at UNLV every other year but will miss watching them in the MAC. But I’m still a MAC fan and see this as another three-horse race with Toledo, Western Michigan and Miami-Ohio. Toledo has a new coach in Mike Jacobs, who has won everywhere he’s been, including two straight SoCon titles at Mercer. And Toledo is used to rebuilding after losing coaches, as happens with mid-majors, and competing every year. Running back CJ Miller and WR Adjatay Dabbs come from Mercer with Jacobs to help whoever wins the QB job.
AARON MOORE
Texas To Win National Championship (+700)
Sign me up as a follower of the Arch Manning Redemption Tour. The prized QB at the start of last season was far from being someone who could lead his team to a national championship. The version at the tail end of last year was a lot closer to doing so. Besides more experience for Manning and leading WR Ryan Wingo, Texas added another downfield threat with Auburn transfer Cam Coleman. The offense will be there, and Will Muschamp on the sidelines should help the defense. After the Big Ten flexed its muscles with a national championship the past three seasons, the 7-1 on the Longhorns is a good buy-low scenario for what should be one of the two best teams in the SEC.
Clemson Under 5.5 Conference Wins (-150)
The ACC schedule makers didn’t do Dabo Swinney any favors as he looks to lift the Tigers back into contention. Sure, Clemson is warming up to the transfer portal, but the odd migration patterns of the ACC will make it hard for Clemson to secure six conference wins. A mid-September flight to Berkeley comes in between home games against North Carolina and Miami. The end of their season features three of their last four games on the road.
SMU To Reach ACC Championship Game (+200)
If veteran QB Kevin Jennings can lead his team to at least one win during SMU’s first two conference games of the season (at Florida State and at Louisville), the Mustangs will be set up nicely for the remainder of ACC play. There should be plenty of October and November ACC wins for the Mustangs. The finale in Palo Alto comes on the heels of a trip to South Bend, but it is hard now to envision Stanford being a roadblock to a championship game appearance.
Steve Makinen
Texas To Make College Football Playoff (-200)
Over the last two springs, the Texas staff has brought in the No. 1 and No. 3 ranked recruit/transfer classes in the country according to 247 Sports. To me, that means this locker room is probably the most talented in the country this season. Now naturally, that talent has to be cultured on the field, but head coach Steve Sarkisian has proven he can do that, taking the Longhorns to the CFP title game two years ago. Last year, to me, was an unrealistic set of expectations for this team, as the pressure on Texas and QB Arch Manning was palpable every time they took the field. The fact that the Longhorns still won 10 games despite a 5-7-1 ATS record shows just how much even the experts behind the bookmaking counter thought of this group. This team won its final three games of ’25 after some of that pressure was lifted, and Manning exploded in those contests. The offense put up 456 yards in the bowl win over Michigan. That is the momentum they will be carrying into 2026. The fact that this program plays the toughest schedule in the nation this year, according to my numbers, is relevant to a degree, but in my opinion, it is Texas’ opponents who are drawing the short straw here. I don’t see a team with this much talent losing more than a couple of games, in which case a playoff berth will be a lock.
Boise State To Make College Football Playoff (+450)
Last year, two Group of 5 teams made the CFP despite losing game(s) in the regular season. This year, I expect that total to be one. To me, the most likely candidate is Boise State, which moves over to the newly formed Pac-12. When I ran my updated power ratings versus the 2026 schedule, the Broncos’ +1.7 difference was one of the biggest I’ve ever had. I think the oddsmakers are giving a bit too much credit to the strength of the new conference, where BSU is the clear favorite. QB Maddux Madsen returns as a senior, and HC Spencer Danielson is in his fourth year with the program. The opener at Oregon is the only likely loss I see on the ’26 slate. By the time it’s all said and done in December, I believe this team will have the strongest resume of the non-P4 teams.
UNLV To Make Mountain West Conference Title Game (+110)
I have gone through the UNLV schedule for ’26, which is minus nemesis Boise State this year after the Broncos left for the Pac-12, and I am struggling to find even a single game where the Runnin’ Rebels will not be expected to win or at least be extremely competitive. With the meteoric rise New Mexico made last year, the Runnin’ Rebels’ Mountain West consistency in recent years makes them the favorite in the MWC this season. Including Auburn transfer QB Jackson Arnold, UNLV head coach Dan Mullen has brought in highly respected recruiting classes to carry on the momentum of 30-12 over the past three years. Mullen has been able to bring in numerous P4 transfers, which should have the Runnin’ Rebels in the hunt for MWC titles year in and year out for the near future. Running this team’s power rating against the 2026 schedule produced a 9-3 record, 6.2-1.8 in league play. I think +110 to reach the MWC title game is a gift of a line.
TYLER SHOEMAKER
Arkansas Under 4.5 Wins (-170)
TSI projects just 4.3 wins for the Razorbacks this year, but when you comb through the schedule and look at the win probabilities in a vacuum, there are only two games in which they have a > 60% win probability, but 10 (!) games in which the win probability is < 40%, with zero games falling in the middle as “coin flips.” So, it’s going to take them way overachieving relative to expectation in three games, plus winning the two they’re supposed to, in order for this bet to lose.
Southern Miss Under 3.5 Wins (+105)
I think a lot of credit is being given to Southern Miss by some models (FPI) based on what they did last year, but head coach Charles Huff is now at Memphis, and the Golden Eagles are undergoing another turnover for the second straight season. I think there’s going to be a major step back, with TSI projecting 3.3 wins, and only one game with a win probability > 60%. In fact, they’ve got 10 games where their win probability is < 40%, with just one coin-flip game. So, for this bet to lose, they have to win the one they’re supposed to win, plus the coin flip, plus two more that they’re sizable underdogs in.
PAUL STONE
Texas Tech To Win Big 12 Championship Game (-105)
With the Brendan Sorsby saga now (mostly) behind them, the Texas Tech Red Raiders can shift their focus to defending their Big 12 championship. Quarterback is clearly the Red Raiders’ biggest question, but all indications are that starter Will Hammond will be ready for the Sept. 5 opener against Abilene Christian after suffering a torn ACL in his right knee last October. The former four-star recruit is not a greenhorn by any stretch after starting the 2024 Liberty Bowl against Arkansas and then two games last season in relief of an injured Behren Morton. With a healthy Hammond under center, Tech projects to be a double-digit favorite in all 12 of its regular-season games. I like the Red Raiders to repeat as conference champions at the short price.
BYU +3 vs. Utah (Game of the Year – Nov. 7)
Long-time Utah defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley is now a first-time head coach there, while BYU’s Kalani Sitake, who worked with Scalley for almost a decade in Salt Lake City, is entering his 11th season as the Cougars’ head man. On top of the perceived coaching edge, I believe BYU has the superior roster. Sophomore quarterback Bear Bachmeier was a pleasant surprise as a true freshman, and senior LJ Martin (1,305 yards rushing in 2025) is one of the nation’s most underappreciated backs. Meanwhile, Utah has questions on both the offensive and defensive lines. BYU is 23-4 straight up over the last two seasons. I like the Cougars to go into Salt Lake City and come away with the outright victory in “The Holy War.”
North Texas Under 5.5 Wins (+100)
Last season, North Texas won 12 games and finished in a three-way tie for first place in the American Conference before falling to Tulane, 34-21, in the league title game. However, former head coach Eric Morris and many of that team’s key pieces have migrated northward to Stillwater, Oklahoma, where they will suit up for the Oklahoma State Cowboys in 2026. Returning just eight percent of their total snaps from one season ago, it’s difficult to envision the Mean Green breaking even in Neal Brown’s first season. North Texas opens with games against Indiana, UNLV and Texas State and could lose all three. Brown may ultimately find success in Denton, but I believe the revamped Mean Green are in for a tough opening act.
PAULY HOWARD
North Dakota State Under 9.5 Wins (-200)
I’m shocked that they are the third choice to win the league and have this high of a win total after making the move to the Mountain West. People are trashing the league with all the teams that have left, but 10-2 is a big ask.
Penn State Over 8.5 Wins (-150)
I’m not a fan of Matt Campbell, but the schedule is a joke. He brings all of his players from Iowa State and doesn’t have to face Oregon, Ohio State or Indiana.
Oklahoma State Over 5.5 Wins (-180)
Drew Mestemaker is ready for the NFL, and he has a great story just getting on the field at North Texas. Eric Morris had a good team last year, and he took all of his players with him. I like the coach and the quarterback, and only need six wins.
North Texas Under 6.5 Wins (-200)
They return zero starters with Morris leaving town. The Mean Green are also in a tough league, making this a work in progress.
JENSEN LEWIS
PARLAY: Notre Dame, Ohio State, Texas To Make College Football Playoff (+115)
Set it and forget it. Barring some ridiculousness that will catastrophically affect many other futures bets on these three programs, I’m getting the top teams entering this regular season to “do their job” and make the College Football Playoff. The Buckeyes return elite talent in Heisman hopefuls Jeremiah Smith and Julian Sayin, giving Ryan Day a chance at an even better overall team than last season’s group. Their team win total Over 9.5 is also a solid foundational future to invest in. Marcus Freeman and the Fighting Irish remaining independent and not facing a potential SEC/Big Ten conference gauntlet gives the team an incredible advantage in the expanded CFP era. Their talent and depth are as good as any team entering this season. The Longhorns spent gobs of NIL money to bolster both sides of the ball, giving Steve Sarkisian potentially his best chance at a national title since taking the job in Austin. It does mean more in the SEC, and it feels like the Horns are leaving no stone unturned in 2026.
LSU To Make College Football Playoff (+160)
Lane Kiffin’s arrival in Baton Rouge is arguably the most compelling storyline entering this season, not only in the SEC, but in college football. An overhauled roster through the transfer portal, paired with significant NIL investments, augments the attractiveness of this future bet. Year 1 of Kiffin usually translates to drastic improvement, especially on offense. Quarterback Sam Leavitt will run a high-octane attack, complete with fresh wideout transfers: big-play threats Jayce Brown (Kansas State) and Jackson Harris (Hawaii) headline the group, alongside speed demon Winnie Watkins, who followed Kiffin from Ole Miss. The schedule is favorable, considering the Tigers will avoid Georgia, so they’ll need to take advantage of winnable early conference matchups before a gauntlet in November (Alabama, Texas, Tennessee). Nine wins feels incredibly viable and enough in the expanded playoff system. Count the Tigers as chaos candidates in this year’s CFP!
ZACHARY COHEN
I wrote up the Big 12 for this guide, so you’ll see some predictions from me there. However, the only win totals I actually took in the conference were Arizona State Over 6.5 (-110 – 3 units), BYU Over 8.5 (-134 – 3 units), Houston Over 7.5 (-155 – 3 units), and UCF Over 5.5 (-140 – 3 units). I also took all four of the candidates I mentioned in my Heisman Trophy column: Darian Mensah (12-1), John Mateer (25-1 – 0.5 units), Marcel Reed (30-1 – 0.5 units), and Drew Mestemaker (75-1 – 0.25 units).
The rest of my futures are as follows:
LSU Over 8.5 Wins (-104 – 3 units) & To Make College Football Playoff (+240)
The Tigers have some very tough games on the schedule, but they’ll play Clemson, Texas A&M, Alabama, and Texas in Death Valley. If they simply split those four games, they should be looking at a 9-3 season — and there’s a decent chance they go 3-1 in those contests. LSU will no longer be weighed down by the poor coaching of Brian Kelly. Lane Kiffin is in the building, meaning the Tigers have one of the brightest offensive minds leading the program. Kiffin also brought along Charlie Weis Jr., a great offensive coordinator, and was able to keep Blake Baker, one of the nation’s top defensive coordinators.
This is going to be a very well-coached team, and the talent is undeniable. Kiffin was active in the transfer portal, scooping up stars for nearly every position group. However, it’s the offense that should make this season special. Arizona State transfer Sam Leavitt should be a star under center in Kiffin’s offense, and he has several weapons at his disposal in Florida transfer Eugene Wilson and Hawaii transfer Jackson Harris — in addition to talented Ole Miss transfer Winston Watkins. Kiffin also has a good group of running backs, and he really beefed up his offensive line.
Michigan Over 8.5 Wins (+140 – 1.5 units)
Michigan has home games against Oklahoma, Iowa, Penn State, and Indiana, and going 3-1 in those contests will be necessary, with the Wolverines facing Oregon and Ohio State on the road. At plus-money odds, I’ll take my chances with Michigan accomplishing that feat.
Kyle Whittingham has always been one of the coaches I trust the most, and I think he did a good job of quickly retooling this roster. Whittingham was able to keep seven offensive starters from last year’s Wolverines squad, and Jason Beck, a brilliant play-caller, will get his crack at coaching them. Beck should be able to turn Bryce Underwood into one of the most feared signal-callers in college football.
Michigan is also loaded on defense. The Wolverines were able to keep defensive backs Jyaire Hill and Zeke Berry, and Whittingham could also have a star in defensive lineman Enow Etta. On top of that, John Henry Daley and Smith Snowden, two absolute studs, transferred in from Utah.
This team is big, physical, and talented, so nine wins should be expected, even with things in Ann Arbor having taken a strange turn since the 2023 championship.
Wisconsin Over 6.5 Wins (+100 – 3 units) & Alt Over 7.5 Wins (+230)
This is undoubtedly a bit of a homer pick, and it’s one I believe I’ve lost every year since I started working for VSiN. However, this is where we list the futures we have for the upcoming college football season, and these are two of mine.
Things have been miserable since Luke Fickell took over the Wisconsin program, but they were trending in the wrong direction long before he was hired. The Badgers were getting smoked by the Big Ten’s elite teams, and the program’s recruiting was in the toilet. Fickell has at least turned around the latter, which is part of the reason why the 2026 team is as talented as it is. He also has some NIL money to work with now, which should help address the team’s competitiveness when facing superior programs.
This year, Wisconsin doesn’t play many of the big brands. The toughest games on the schedule feature the Badgers facing Notre Dame (in Green Bay), Penn State (road), USC (home), and Iowa (road). Outside of those four games, Wisconsin should be able to win at a high clip, and I’d expect the Badgers to win at least one of the daunting matchups.
The reality is that Fickell has been just as unlucky as he has been bad. His quarterback rooms have been decimated by injuries since he arrived in Madison. If the team can keep Old Dominion transfer Colton Joseph healthy, the Badgers will have a dynamic dual-threat playmaker under center. They’ll also have a much-improved offensive line, and the defense is absolutely loaded — with Fickell having done great work to keep Mason Posa and Cooper Catalano around.
Things should start trending in the right direction for Wisconsin this year, and eight wins should be the goal.
BYU To Make College Football Playoff (+330)
BYU is an Over team for me when looking at regular-season win totals (8.5), but I’m not stopping there. The Cougars have some tough games on the schedule, including road games against TCU and Utah and a home game against Notre Dame. But those games also give BYU a shot at picking up the kind of wins the committee wanted to see last year.
This team should be extremely productive on both sides of the ball. On offense, LJ Martin, one of the nation’s top running backs, is back to work behind a tremendous offensive line. Bear Bachmeier should also make significant strides as a passer in Year 2 under center. On the other side of the ball, the Cougars have seven starters back from last year. They also added Cal transfer linebacker Cade Uluave, who has the potential to turn this defense into a top-10 unit in the nation.
Kalani Sitake has done remarkable things since taking over his alma mater, but the best is yet to come. This BYU team has been knocking on the door of a College Football Playoff appearance, and this feels like a year in which the Cougars will kick it off its hinges.
BEN STEVENS
New Mexico To Win The Mountain West (+265)
If you don’t know the name Jason Eck by now, you will soon. Eck led the Lobos to nine wins in 2025, the most by a New Mexico head coach in his first year in program history. And from that history-making team, 14 starters return for the 2026 campaign, including QB Jack Layne. In fact, 63% of the Lobos’ production from last season is back in Albuquerque this year, which is the second-most among Group of Six programs and the most in the Mountain West. In today’s climate of college football, to have that sort of buy-in across your program is saying something. And in the newly reshaped Mountain West, the Lobos have both UNLV (the favorites) and NDSU (the third-best price) at home, where New Mexico was a perfect 6-0 in 2025. Invest early in Albuquerque.
UCLA Over 6.5 Wins (+110)
If there are 1,000 Bob Chesney believers, I am one. If there are 100 Bob Chesney believers, I am one. If there is only one Bob Chesney believer, it is me. If there are zero Bob Chesney believers, I have perished from this Earth. So yes, I think UCLA’s new head man is going to continue the winning ways he has at every previous stop, at every level of college football, in Westwood from the very start. Everybody in CFB is clamoring for the next Curt Cignetti. To me, Cignetti is the anomaly, not the standard. But if you wanted a coach to follow in that archetype, it is Chesney. In 16 years as a CFB head coach, from D-III to the FBS level, he has a .717 win percentage with eight conference titles to boot. And after leading JMU to the CFP last season, I think Chesney will continue to prove his acclaim in the Big Ten. There are 42 newcomers to the Bruins in 2026, 10 of them following Chesney from James Madison, including All-American Wayne Knight (RB/all-purpose returner) and Sahir West (EDGE and Sun Belt Freshman of the Year). QB Nico Iamaleava returns under the new staff, and I’m betting on him to take a stride this season. UCLA’s schedule is also quite manageable, playing only three of the six teams that have a win total of 8.5 or better, and facing three of the five teams with a win total of 5.5 or lower.
Kentucky Over 4.5 Wins (-148)
When asked at SEC Media Days why he believes he can win in Lexington, new head coach Will Stein responded, “Because of me, honestly.” And I trust Stein. The Wildcats are investing in this football program, as seen in the portal class entering this new season. Notre Dame transfer Kenny Minchey steps in at the QB spot, and if you’ve seen what Stein has done for the college careers of Bo Nix, Dillon Gabriel, and Dante Moore, I have little doubt he will elevate Minchey as well. The Cats also added some nice pieces at the skill positions in CJ Baxter (RB, Texas), Jovantae Barnes (RB, Oklahoma, Nic Anderson (WR, LSU), etc. Faring well against Kentucky’s schedule is going to be no easy task, but such is life in the SEC. The Wildcats have notable home games against Alabama, LSU, Vandy, Florida, and in-state rival Louisville this season, and I would not be stunned if Stein guides UK to a win in two or three of those games to get us Over this win total comfortably.
DUSTIN SWEDELSON
Darian Mensah To Win The Heisman Trophy (16-1)
We have reached a point in the new landscape of college football where we know which programs handle the transfer portal best. Maybe no team has been better at finding QBs in the portal and maximizing their abilities than the Miami Hurricanes. When Cam Ward arrived in Coral Gables two seasons ago, he had averaged 3,484 passing yards and 24 passing touchdowns at Washington State over two seasons. He then transformed into a Heisman Trophy finalist and eventual No. 1 overall draft pick by throwing for over 4,300 yards and 39 touchdowns. In 2025, Carson Beck transferred from Georgia. Beck finished with a career high 30 touchdowns and led Miami to the National Championship Game. Now enters Darian Mensah, fresh off 3,900-plus passing yards and 34 touchdowns, while leading Duke to the 2025 ACC Championship. If he gets the bump that his predecessors received in their one year playing in offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson’s offense, then he will be in New York for the Heisman ceremony at the end of the year. How does he get there aside from scheme? Well, throwing to sophomore superstar WR Malachi Toney certainly helps. Toney led the nation in receptions and the ACC in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns last year. He is capable of taking short passes a long way, which will not only boost Mensah’s stats but also open up opportunities for others in the offense. That’s where Cooper Barkate comes in. Barkate was with Mensah at Duke last season after previously playing at Harvard. He quickly became Mensah’s go-to target, finishing with 72 catches, 1,106 yards and seven TDs. They already have chemistry and, combined with Toney, could form the best QB-plus-two-WR combination in the nation. The Hurricanes also added WR transfer Cam Vaughn, who had 800 yards and five TDs two seasons ago at Jacksonville State, and former South Carolina WR Vandrevius Jacobs, who was productive with 548 yards and four touchdowns a season ago. Factor in the Miami defense lost some major pieces to the NFL, which could result in more shootouts and gaudy stats for Mensah. This number is also just too long for the QB of the largest favorite to win a Power Four league.
Kentucky Over 4.5 Wins (-150)
There is a lot to like here, even with the challenges of Kentucky being a basketball school. The Wildcats scored 17 points or fewer six times in 2025 and still found five wins on the schedule. If the offense can improve a little, they should be able to at least maintain five wins and get over this total. That’s why they turned to Will Stein. While Stein has never been a head coach before, he did guide an Oregon offense the last three seasons that turned Bo Nix into a first-round pick, Dillon Gabriel into a third-round pick, and took Dante Moore from UCLA cast-off to potential top-five draft pick. His latest QB project is Kenny Minchey. Minchey didn’t see a lot of action at Notre Dame, but he battled current Heisman Trophy favorite CJ Carr down the stretch for the starting job a year ago. Multiple beat reporters appeared on VSiN and thought Minchey had the clear leg up in the competition. Whether those practices in South Bend, Indiana, translate to game results in Lexington, Kentucky, remains to be seen, but it does let us know the talent the Wildcats have under center this year. Stein is making sure he has big targets to throw to, bringing in big-body transfers at WR. LSU transfer Nic Anderson (6’4″, 205 lbs.) had almost 800 yards and 10 TDs at Oklahoma in 2023, Southern Utah transfer Shane Carr (6’2″, 185 lbs.) went for over 1,300 yards and 10 TDs over the last two seasons, plus Arkansas transfer Ja’Kayden Ferguson (6’2″, 184 lbs.) and UAB transfer Xavier Daisy (6’3″, 212 lbs.) join the fold as well. The run game gets a huge upside boost from former Texas RB CJ Baxter, who missed all of 2024 with an injury. And most importantly, they rebuilt this offensive line with four-star transfers in Tennessee OT Lance Heard, Ohio State OG Tegra Tshabola, and Baylor center Coleton Price. The defense brings in plenty of talent from all over, but the reason I bet this is the improved offense. If they reach their potential, they could even get to six wins this year.
NC State Over 7.5 Wins (+105)
Dave Doeren enters Year 16 at NC State, where he has only failed to get to eight wins one time since 2020. It may not be pretty, and it may not excite you, but Doeren wins football games. The offense that scored 30.2 points per game a year ago lost some juice with Hollywood Smothers and its five leading pass catchers leaving. But QB CJ Bailey returns for his third season and his second under offensive coordinator Kurt Roper. It’s shocking Bailey stayed in Raleigh; he could have made a lot of money in the portal after throwing for 3,105 yards, 31 total TDs and nine INTs. His return is why this team can get to eight wins. He is a special player and should have some help via the transfer portal. WR Davion Dozier comes in from App State, where he had 448 yards and five TDs in eight games last year. The Wolfpack also added two underutilized Miami WR transfers in JoJo Trader and Chance Robinson. While 5’8″ Victor Snow might be the most interesting, as he is coming off 815 yards and eight TDs at Buffalo. LT Jimarion McCrimon, who joins from East Carolina, was a massive addition. But most notably, the defense, which allowed the second-most explosive plays in the ACC, has been upgraded with five potential starters. Edge Harvey Dyson led the American with eight sacks a year ago. LBs Raul Aguirre (Miami) and Da’Karri Nelson (Penn State) could make big impacts. And the secondary adds Georgia CB Ondre Evans and Penn State safety King Mack (58 tackles, 3 passes defended) to go with second-year starting CB Brian Nelson. Even if they lose the opener at Virginia, which feels like a coin-flip game, Richmond, Appalachian State, Wake Forest, Stanford, Florida State and North Carolina all feel like wins. So we would need just two more wins from going to Virginia, at Vanderbilt, vs. Cal, vs. Duke and vs. Syracuse. That feels very doable.
Arkansas Under 4.5 Wins (-166)
Ryan Silverfield was a weird hire for Arkansas. It felt like he did less with more in the American Conference and was somehow rewarded. Well, congratulations, Ryan. You’re an SEC head coach, with possibly the fewest resources, and in your first year you have a top-five most difficult schedule. Week 2 at Utah is followed a week later by Georgia. Tulsa on September 26th feels like a win, but it’s a dreaded lookahead spot with a trip to Texas A&M looming the following week. They finish with a brutal run starting on Halloween with Missouri at home, at an improved Auburn squad, vs. South Carolina, at Texas and vs. LSU. I don’t see four wins, let alone five. It looks like, at best, wins are vs. North Alabama, Tulsa and maybe at Vanderbilt. Whichever QB the Razorbacks choose will lack experience. AJ Hill played in two games for Memphis last year, going 19 for 32, 223 passing yards, one TD and one INT. KJ Jackson saw action in five games for Arkansas, completing 33 of 54 passes for 441 yards and three TDs. Expect this team to keep the ball on the ground with a deep stable of RBs: Braylen Russell is a bruiser, Sutton Smith ran for 669 yards and seven TDs at Memphis, and Jasper Parker was a four-star recruit at Michigan. Former Boise five-star Chris Marshall went for 30 catches, 574 yards and two TDs last season, but can they get him the ball consistently? They brought in some big transfers to fix a defense that was 129th in scoring a year ago, but this doesn’t seem like a team built to play from behind. And I expect them to be behind a lot this year with that schedule.
Houston Over 8.5 Wins (+130)
I hate going back to the same team two years in a row in this guide, but they cashed last year going 10-3, and I like their chances this year. QB Connor Weigman returns for his senior season after throwing for 2,705 yards, 36 total touchdowns and nine interceptions. Weigman returns to the same OC, Slade Nagle, for the first time in his career. The Cougars added former Tulane RB Makhi Hughes, who couldn’t crack the rotation in Oregon last year despite a 2024 in which he ran for 1,400 yards and had 17 total touchdowns. Another huge transfer was UTSA TE Patrick Overmyer, who will fill the void left by Tanner Koziol. Overmyer will get plenty of looks in this Houston offense. Oregon State transfer WR Trent Walker compiled over 1,700 yards the last two seasons in Beaverton. Plus, Amare Thomas is back coming off 966 yards and 12 TDs a year ago. The Cougars are relying on the portal to fill holes on defense. But the secondary will anchor this group with All-Big 12 CB Will James back. Former Stephen F. Austin safety Javion White had 50 tackles in 2025. While Oregon DE transfer Ashton Porter, Oklahoma State DE De’Marion Thomas and Ole Miss LB Jaden Yates came to Houston to get more playing time. If Fritz and DC Austin Armstrong can bring this team together, not only do I like Over 8.5 wins, but I think 16-1 to win a wide-open Big 12 could be interesting as well.
MITCH MOSS
Texas Tech To Win Big 12 Championship (+100)
I usually don’t bet conference winners this far out at even money, but I couldn’t resist this year with the Red Raiders. The team lived up to the transfer-portal-paying-hype last year by clobbering 11 opponents by 20+ points. The 2024 version was loaded to the gills and lost a lot of talent, but reloading the six-shooters is a way of life in the state of Texas.
Two notes to consider:
- From the Pick Six Previews magazine: your average Big 12 team has averaged two four-star transfers over the past two recruiting periods. Texas Tech inked 20. The team avoids playing BYU and Utah in the regular season, and their most difficult conference opponents are all at home.
- Professional bettor Brad Powers told Follow The Money on April 28th, 2026: “I downgraded them three points because I thought there would be some regression. Then, with the Sorsby news, I downgraded them another 3.5 points. So about a full touchdown downgrade since last year’s team, and I still have Texas Tech favored in every single game — per my power ratings — by double-digits. That’s how easy of a schedule Texas Tech has.”
Ole Miss Over 8.5 Wins (+150) & To Make College Football Playoff (+220)
Shop around if you’re high on this team, as the numbers are all over the map. There is a ton to like about the 2026 version of Ole Miss despite losing Lane Kiffin as head coach. If you only watched games last year and paid attention to nothing else, QB Trinidad Chambliss popped as the best or second-best player in the country, along with Fernando Mendoza. I don’t care about his age, nor does being a Division II transfer mean anything to me. The kid plays the position at an extremely high level and is back to lead what will once again be a high-powered machine on offense. Playing with a chip on their shoulder was evident after Kiffin bailed on the team, and I expect that to be a theme this season as well. However, momentum isn’t really a thing, especially from one season to the next. What will be a real carryover is the overall firepower on offense along with Chambliss. RB Kewan Lacy was first-team All-SEC and rushed for 1,567 yards and scored 24 TDs. The team lost playmaking WRs on offense, but loaded up once again via the portal. The same is true on defense. Kiffin poached key players on that unit to tag along to LSU, but Ole Miss signed eight four-star transfers on that side of the ball. I loved what I watched with the Rebels last season, and am betting on it to continue this year.
ADAM BURKE
Georgia Southern Over 3.5 Conference Wins (-115)
The Eagles will take some lumps early in the season with non-conference tilts against Clemson and Houston, but those could help in the long run with a very manageable conference schedule. Two of their Sun Belt road games are quite winnable – Coastal Carolina and Georgia State – and I also expect them to put up terrific passing numbers with multi-time transfer Max Johnson in a pass-happy scheme. That could help them with a home upset of James Madison or a road dub over Old Dominion, which would certainly lock this in. Even if they don’t get either of those, I have them favored five times in conference play and therefore think this one can get there.
Appalachian State To Win Sun Belt (18-1)
Even though my pick in our chart was Old Dominion, the 18-1 price tag here is worthy of a dart throw. Dowell Loggains, who was the OC at South Carolina in 2023-24, including LaNorris Sellers’ spectacular redshirt freshman season in ‘24 with 674 rushing yards (4.1 YPC) and 2,534 passing yards (18/7 TD/INT ratio), now has more dual-threat options in Boone than he previously had. When Loggains took over at App State, Sellers saw a drop of nearly 5% in his completion percentage, threw for fewer yards, and only had 1.8 YPC. While Loggains wasn’t the only loss for the Gamecocks, I do think it’s a fair illustration how much better the App State offense can be this season with more mobile QBs and a faster tempo. Old Dominion and James Madison, the two top teams in the East, play at App State and the Mountaineers avoid Louisiana and Troy, the two top teams in the West.
Oregon To Reach Big Ten Championship Game (+100)
DraftKings had Ohio State and Indiana as odds-on prices to make it to the Big Ten title game as of the Tuesday before the CFB Guide came out. Per my numbers, Oregon is an underdog once (at Ohio State) and -5.5 or higher in every other Big Ten game. They avoid Indiana, host Michigan and Washington, and I think they have to win one of the two main road games, USC and Ohio State, to get there. The Buckeyes and Hoosiers both feel vulnerable given their significant losses on both sides of the ball. Ohio State under OC Arthur Smith is worrisome, given that they’ll likely squander their talent advantage again and play slowly, which makes them more beatable. Dan Lanning in big games is a worry, but I don’t think the Week 10 game against Ohio State is unattainable. The common opponents between Oregon and Indiana, who do not play each other, are USC, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, Michigan, and Washington. Oregon has four of those games at home, including Michigan and Washington, two places the Hoosiers have to go, and even Nebraska if the Cornhuskers wind up being any good.
SEAN GREEN
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele To Win Heisman Trophy (65-1)
The lefty from Hawaii is going into Year 2 as the starting QB at Cal, and the sky is the limit. He threw for 3,454 passing yards and 18 TDs as a freshman while taking them to a 7-6 record. JKS showed off in some late-season big-game wins for Cal when they upset SMU and Louisville, while throwing for 653 yards in those games. If he can elevate this Cal team above its seven-win season last year, he’ll be in the mix for the Heisman.
Air Force To Win Mountain West (+550)
Air Force is returning 14 starters, and this is one of Troy Calhoun’s better teams in years. Calhoun has never had a losing season three years in a row, so I expect the Falcons to turn things around in a big way. Their QB Liam Szarka is the perfect fit for the Air Force style of attack, as he’s a great dual-threat QB. In Szarka’s starts, Air Force averaged 39 PPG, and with some small improvements this Air Force team will be flying high.
WES REYNOLDS
Penn State To Make College Football Playoff (+450)
Last year, Penn State had College Football Playoff and championship aspirations. Then, they lost in 2OT at home in the big showdown with Oregon, and that started a six-game losing streak, and James Franklin was fired after consecutive losses as over 20-point favorites at UCLA and vs. Northwestern. The Nittany Lions rallied under interim coach Terry Smith, still on staff as assistant head coach, to make and win a bowl game.
Enter Matt Campbell and 24 transfers (seven offensive starters and four defensive starters) from Iowa State. Call it Curt Cignetti and James Madison to Indiana from two years ago on steroids. Campbell led Cyclones football to its best decade in program history with seven bowl appearances in 10 seasons. All of college football wondered when he was going to make the leap to the bigger job, and he finally did when Penn State came calling. Campbell was not AD Pat Kraft’s first choice, but he may end up being the right choice.
The core of his Iowa State teams are now wearing dark blue and white in Happy Valley. Those teams went 17-7 over the last two seasons, including four victories over ranked teams, with QB Rocco Becht not missing a start in over three seasons despite playing through a variety of injuries. Shoulder surgery kept him out of spring practice except for 7-on-7.
Like Cignetti and the JMU crew from two years ago at Indiana, these players and coaches will have a chip on their shoulders to prove they can play against the step up in class against tougher competition. Also like that group, Penn State is the beneficiary of a highly favorable schedule. Out of their 12 games, the Nittany Lions are likely underdogs in only two of them, at Michigan and at Washington. They avoid all of the consensus top-three Big Ten teams in the regular season: Oregon, Ohio State, and Indiana.
While this is the first year for these Iowa State players in the Big Ten, they do have experience playing physical, grinder Big Ten games against Iowa in the CyHawk game, where the Cyclones defeated Kirk Ferentz and Iowa in three of the last four years.
If the College Football Playoff shakes out like last year, there will be four SEC teams, Notre Dame getting in this year, the Big 12 champion, the ACC champion, the Group of Six representative, and four Big Ten teams. The battle for the likely fourth Big Ten spot should be between Michigan, USC, and Penn State. Michigan and USC both have more difficult schedules.
Penn State, unlike last season, gets to also be the beneficiary of lower expectations.
We Are!
Rutgers Under 5.5 Wins (-150)
Greg Schiano’s second act at Rutgers in the Big Ten has proven to be more difficult than his first act in the Big East. The NIL era has been even less kind to the Scarlet Knights, and player retention is certainly an issue, as Rutgers needs to make a decision to put more resources into the program if they are going to be competitive in the Big Ten.
Rutgers does have two All-Big Ten offensive skill players in RB Antwan Raymond and WR KJ Duff. However, they will have a new QB responsible for getting them the ball, as “The Greek Rifle” Athan Kaliakmanis has graduated. Boston College transfer Dylan Lonergan and returner AJ Surace are battling for the starting job. The Scarlet Knights are also looking for three new starters on the OL.
Defensively, though, is where Rutgers has been an absolute mess. The Scarlet Knights ranked 125th nationally in total defense, which is why Travis Johansen was brought in as defensive coordinator after coaching South Dakota to the FCS Playoffs last year.
While the non-conference slate is manageable (vs. UMass, at Boston College, vs. Howard), Rutgers is likely to be an underdog in every conference game except for perhaps the season finale against Michigan State.
Schiano’s teams always fight hard, but the talent, especially on defense, is still lacking.
Fresno State To Win Pac-12 (+650)
Fresno State went 9-4 in Matt Entz’s first season in the San Joaquin Valley. Entz is used to winning, having brought North Dakota State two FCS Championships.
The Bulldogs are still looking for a QB, but have arguably the best running attack, and certainly the most returning production with Rayshon Luke and Bryson Donelson combining for nearly 1,400 yards last season. Fresno has the best lines in the new Pac on both sides of the ball, and they were ranked No. 2 nationally in pass defense (only Ohio State ranked higher). In this day and age of the portal, it is rare to bring back more than a couple of starters, but the Bulldogs have six back on defense. Plus, they get conference favorite Boise State at home.
STORMY BUONANTONY
Florida State Under 6.5 Wins (-160) & Alt Under 5.5 Wins (+155)
Mike Norvell’s squad went from 60 to 0 real fast. They had 10 wins in 2022 and 13 in 2023, but ever since missing out on the playoff that year with Jordan Travis’ injury, it’s been a mess. Things fell apart with a 2-10 season 2024, and just when you thought they were poised for a bounce back upsetting Alabama and starting 3-0 to open last season, they withered away again, losing seven of their last nine games. Since the day the CFP field was announced in 2023, FSU has gone 7-18 with a -25 turnover margin. With that in mind, if I were a head coach on the hot seat, I’m not sure Ashton Daniels would be who I’d hitch my wagon to as QB1. In his career at Stanford and Auburn, he’s been inconsistent at best and erratic and turnover-prone at his worst. While, generally speaking, the roster overall should be better this season — they have the 22nd-best “newcomer class” in the country per ESPN — have you seen their schedule? It’s the hardest by far in the ACC. They face SMU right away in Week 2, at Alabama in non-conference Week 3, vs. Virginia, at Louisville on a short week, at Miami, vs. Clemson, at Pitt, vs. NC State and close out the season against Florida. In summation, they face all the tough teams in the ACC and a pair of SEC teams out of conference. I could easily see this team being discouraged and checked out by October. Six wins felt generous to me, and I’m betting it as such.
Penn State Over 8.5 Wins (-160) & To Make College Football Playoff (+425)
While the Matt Campbell hire feels a little like a consolation prize after Penn State’s coaching search largely resulted in its primary targets leveraging the job for extensions at their current schools, I still think they still landed a solid coach. While he’s not the recruiter James Franklin is, Campbell is a great evaluator, developer and the type of coach who tends to do more with less. And I don’t know what he did to curry favor with the CFB scheduling gods, but they are looking down on him for Year 1 at State College. No Ohio State, no Oregon and no Indiana on the slate. They face a trio of G5 non-conference opponents in Marshall, Temple and Buffalo. Their toughest game on paper is against USC on October 10th, but they’ll have a White Out crowd at their back and Lincoln Riley’s USC teams have historically struggled on the road. While games at Northwestern and Washington aren’t gimmes, none of their Big Ten opponents outside of SC have a win total over 7.5. As for the roster Campbell will field, he brought over his most trusted soldiers from Iowa State, including QB Rocco Becht. His season was derailed by injuries last year, but he is back healthy, paired with his former OC Taylor Mouser, top WRs Brett Eskildson and Chase Sowell and stud TE Ben Brahmer. If Becht stays healthy, I think this is a 10-win team, and if they’re winning double-digit games in the Big Ten, it would be hard to keep them out of the CFP, so I don’t hate a sprinkle on them getting into the 12-team field.
Iowa Over 7.5 Wins (-120)
This was a win total I wrote up in the guide last year that cashed, and I’m going back to the well with Kirk Ferentz in Year 28. Iowa hasn’t gone a full non-Covid season with fewer than eight wins since 2014, averaging 8.7 wins per season over the last 12 years, though two of those seasons include bowl wins. I think that continued success carries over with one of the more manageable schedules in the Big Ten. They’ll have a three-week stretch that’s really challenging early, at the Big House, hosting Ohio State and then at Washington, but after that, there’s no obvious loss on the schedule, especially considering the success they had against some of those conference opponents last season. A big part of why I liked Iowa so much last year was I thought they finally had a QB, but even with Mark Gronowski coming up far short of my expectations, they still won all the games they were supposed to, and that’s my thought entering this season. Ferentz says the QB competition between Hank Brown and Jeremy Hecklinski could go deep into August, but I don’t think either will be much of a downgrade from the QB play they got last season. Some may shy away from Iowa seeing they are last in the Big Ten in returning production on defense, which made Ferentz, who had never had more than nine total transfers in a single season, grab eight players from the portal just on that side of the ball — but I trust Phil Parker to get the most out of those players. The Hawkeyes’ defense in recent history under Parker hasn’t ranked lower than sixth in DEF SP+ since 2018. They were ninth in the nation in total defense last year, 20th in 2024, seventh in 2023 and second in 2022. They should be stout again. I have the Iowa trend of eight-win seasons paying us out again in 2026.
North Dakota State Alt Under 8.5 Wins (+145)
Their original win total of 9.5 is an obvious Under in my opinion, but for a team I view as an eight-win group, I’d rather get plus-money odds on an alternate Under 8.5 than lay upwards of -220 on Under 9.5. While I do feel like the championship culture and style of play they’ve established for years at the FCS level will translate immediately to the new-look Mountain West, the first-year schedule isn’t friendly for a program making the jump. They see an old friend in Jacksonville State in non-conference play, and it’s among the favorites to win Conference USA. They also have to face the top three teams in the league on the road at UNLV, at UNM and at Hawaii. They also face the elevation in not only Albuquerque but Colorado Springs, with another road trip to a potential MW sleeper in Air Force. From a talent standpoint, they might have been in a better position making the jump last season compared to now, when they’re breaking in a new starting QB (Nathan Hayes is a fifth-year senior but a career backup), a new skill group and a largely new secondary. They’re always good up front and should be again, but there are other teams in the Mountain West that I’m more inclined to grab a win-total Over or view as a contender to win the conference.
New Mexico To Make College Football Playoff (20-1)
This is a perceived value play for me more than anything else based on the current state of the Group of Six. While I do give Boise State the benefit of the doubt as the top G6 team entering the season, given their program history and returning production, it caught me a bit off guard to see them so short at 5-1 to make the CFP. I think that the G6 spot could be pretty wide open this year. Even in the Mountain West, most books have New Mexico and UNLV on the same line, pricing-wise, to win the conference and for season win totals, yet UNLV is 10-1 to make the CFP compared to UNM at 20-1. Navy and UTSA out of the American are 9-1 and 10-1, respectively. The math isn’t math-ing for a Lobos team that was one of the best surprise teams in college football last year. In Jason Ek’s first year with the program, he led New Mexico to a 9-3 mark and brought back more production than any other team in the conference. A lot will hinge on the health of starting QB Jack Layne, who’s returning from an elbow injury, but all reports are that he’s in a great place to start camp. Looking at the schedule as well, it appears pretty manageable. Yes, they’re at Oklahoma in Week 3 and have a tough road trip to Hawaii, but they host UNLV, who they beat in Vegas last year, host Air Force, who they beat in Colorado Springs, and host newcomer NDSU. Those are potential marquee games that, if won, could put New Mexico at 10-2 or 11-1 at the end of the year, heading to a MW title game and a potential CFP berth.
Oregon To Reach Big Ten Title Game (+100)
I personally view Oregon as the favorite in the Big Ten, so seeing them behind both Ohio State and Indiana just to make the title game — and with a plus sign in front of the price — felt like a must-play. They avoid Indiana altogether, who appeared to be their Kryptonite last season; road trips to USC and Ohio State will be challenging, and they do welcome Michigan and Washington to Autzen Stadium, but my gut says they don’t lose more than one of those games. Oregon has lost a combined five games the last three years. They’re the model of consistency, and with the talent they have coming back paired with the schedule they face, I’d be pretty shocked if they weren’t playing for the Big Ten title in December.
Jonathan Von Tobel
Auburn Over 6.5 Wins (-115)
Call me crazy, but I’m buying the USF takeover at Auburn. Byrum Brown amassed 4,238 yards both passing and rushing and totaled 42 touchdowns last year, and is one of the best quarterbacks in the country. He’s got two receivers from USF with him in the fold, and defensive coordinator DJ Durkin remains on staff. He’s been one of the best defensive play-callers in college football over the last three seasons. The Tigers have everything they need to be a surprise contender in the SEC.
North Dakota State Under 8.5 Wins (+140)
I’m not buying the seamless transition the market is selling with North Dakota State. The Bison lost a lot of talent to the portal, including two First-Team All-MVFC offensive linemen. The team has just 10 starters back and brought in zero starters via the portal. They only bring in three Power Four transfers, one of which is a punter from Minnesota. Programs at the top of the Mountain West — UNLV and New Mexico — retooled with transfer talent from all over the country. The internal promotion and development might work in the long run for NDSU, but not this season.
Air Force Over 7.5 Wins (+120)
Look out, this is going to be one of the surprises of the season. The Falcons averaged 29.8 points and 407 yards per game last season. They ranked 11th in the country EPA per play and 15th in both EPA per play when rushing the football and rushing success rate. Liam Szarka is back at quarterback to lead that unit, and the defense should be improved with Steve Russ, a former Troy Calhoun staff member, as defensive coordinator. Eight or more wins and a potential berth in the Mountain West title game are in the cards for the Falcons.
Hawaii To Win Mountain West (+600)
Hawaii is one of two teams — Air Force being the other — that could absolutely steal the Mountain West from the projected teams at the top. The ‘Bows have preseason Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year Micah Alejado back. The signal-caller completed 66% of his passes for 3,106 yards while tossing 24 touchdowns to nine interceptions last season with a bad ankle. Now that he has a season under the belt, and is healthy, he and this team will be great. They also get to host New Mexico, UNLV and NDSU.
Gunner Stockton To Win Heisman Trophy (20-1)
I’m buying ‘Stock’ on the Georgia signal-caller. He was great in the fourth quarter last season — he completed 83.6% of his passes for 8.5 yards per attempt and totaled nine touchdowns — and now has a season under his belt. He leads a title contender and plays in the SEC. The moments will be there, and so too will the benefit of the doubt from the voters. Simply put: He’s the starting quarterback for a 10-plus win team in the SEC. I’ll take my chances.
John McKechnie (Rotowire)
Miami (FL) To Win National Championship (11-1)
Roster continuity is overrated in this era, and the elite teams are able to reload on the fly by being the best at transfer portal management. The ‘Canes came up just short of a national title last year, and despite some notable losses in the trenches, they might be even better this year. They upgraded at quarterback with Darian Mensah coming in from Duke, and he’ll have his top target, Cooper Barkate (72/1106/7), joining him. Adding that combo to an offense that already has elite line and skill position talent like Malachi Toney, and we have something serious cooking in Coral Gables. The ACC being this down means that Miami is almost a shoo-in to make the dance; the question will center on whether they’re battle-tested enough come CFP time. The talent is absolutely there for a title run.
Texas A&M Under 8.5 Wins (-120)
There’s some regression headed for College Station after things broke the Aggies’ way time and again in 2025. Marcel Reed has limitations that are hard to fix in one offseason, and he’ll no longer have KC Concepcion to bail him out. Mario Craver is fun, but not an engine for a passing game. The defense will keep them in games, but the offense will let them down in key spots. Games in Baton Rouge, Tuscaloosa and Norman will be tough, as will hosting Texas and Tennessee.
TIM MURRAY
Florida State Under 6.5 Wins (-175)
Let’s start with the schedule. Florida State plays a pair of SEC teams, at Alabama and Florida, including a revenge game against the Crimson Tide after the Seminoles beat Alabama 31-17 last year in Week 1. The ACC did not do Florida State any favors this year. Of the Seminoles’ eight ACC games, FSU will play the top seven teams in the conference according to the DraftKings oddsboard: Miami, SMU, Louisville, Clemson, Virginia, Pittsburgh, and NC State.
Thinking back to last year, Florida State reached No. 8 in the AP Poll before losing a Friday night game in OT to Virginia. The Noles dropped off a cliff and missed a bowl game for a second straight year after going 13-0 and winning the ACC back in 2023. Florida State could be due for some positive regression after losing four one-score games last season, but the talent is questionable. Entering 2024, Florida State brought in 23 transfers, which was rated the sixth-best transfer portal class according to 247 Sports. This season, the Seminoles added 23 transfers that ranked just 27th nationally according to 247 Sports. Additionally, going from Tommy Castellanos to Ashton Daniels, who transferred from Stanford and Auburn, is a big drop-off.
We will know what Florida State has this season on Labor Day Monday against SMU. The Noles are a short home underdog against the Mustangs. If FSU drops that game, it would not be surprising if the season started to spiral quickly and head coach Mike Norvell were fired midseason.
Georgia To Win SEC Championship (+310)
There is a lot of hype entering this season surrounding Texas, and understandably so. Arch Manning is back, the Longhorns are loaded at wide receiver (Ryan Wingo, Cam Coleman, Emmett Mosley), and Texas attacked the portal hard (#3 class per 247 Sports). With that said, it seems like the two-time defending SEC champion is being slightly overlooked entering this year. QB Gunner Stockton is back for another season after leading Georgia to a conference championship last year. RB Nate Frazier also returns to lead one of the top running back rooms in the country. Frazier led the Dawgs with 947 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns last year. Per Bill Connelly’s SP+, Georgia is eighth nationally in returning production (68%) and No. 5 in returning production on defense. The wide receiver room is certainly a question mark entering the year, with the departure of Zachariah Branch and TE Oscar Delp, but Georgia Tech transfer WR Isiah Canion has the potential to be a breakout star.
For an SEC schedule, Georgia made out pretty well. The Dawgs avoid Texas, LSU, and Texas A&M while hosting Oklahoma in late September. Georgia is projected to be a favorite in all 12 games, with road trips to Alabama and Ole Miss as the shortest spreads. Georgia will have an elite defense this year, and it would be surprising if they are not back in Atlanta for the SEC Championship.
Texas Tech To Win Big 12 Championship (+100)
The offseason in Lubbock was quite the circus with the Brendan Sorsby drama. The day he was ruled ineligible, I bet Texas Tech to win the Big 12. The Red Raiders have the most talent in the Big 12, and the schedule they were handed was a gift. If you take a look at the Big 12 futures odds, Texas Tech avoids BYU, Utah, and Kansas State, who are 2-4 on the oddsboard, and then hosts the next four teams on the oddsboard (Houston, Arizona State, Arizona, TCU).
Texas Tech has a good chance to be a double-digit favorite in every game this season because the talent on their roster is far superior to the rest of the Big 12. Brett Ciancia summed it up well in Pick Six Previews: “Over the past two cycles, the average Big 12 team has signed two four-star transfers. Texas Tech signed 20.”
Lastly, head coach Joey McGuire has said on multiple occasions that he expects QB Will Hammond to be ready for Week 1. Hammond tore his ACL last October. If the Red Raiders aren’t playing in the Big 12 Championship it would be a disastrous season in Lubbock.
Lincoln Kienholz To Win Heisman Trophy (100-1)
A long-shot Heisman winner has hit the last two years, so why not a third?
Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza was 55-1 to win the Heisman before the season last year, and Colorado’s Travis Hunter was 50-1 two years ago. Back in 2016, Louisville QB Lamar Jackson entered the season 100-1 to win the Heisman. Could another Cardinal QB be primed to bring home some hardware in New York City this December?
Obviously this is quite the long shot, but Lincoln Kienholz is a relatively unknown commodity entering the college football season. Kienholz was a four-star recruit out of South Dakota back in 2023. After spending three seasons at Ohio State, Kienholz transferred to Louisville this offseason. Kienholz is a unique athlete, and that is something that could be unlocked by Louisville head coach Jeff Brohm. Brohm has always thrived with transfer quarterbacks, including Miller Moss, Tyler Shough, and Jack Plummer. Kienholz will have an opportunity to announce his presence with authority, Nuke LaLoosh style, in a Week 1 showdown against Ole Miss on Labor Day Sunday. After Louisville hosts SMU in Week 3, we will know if this ticket has some legs or if it is toast.
