Tennessee at Ohio State:

The final game of the first round of the College Football Playoff features the Tennessee Volunteers and Ohio State Buckeyes. The winner earns a date with the Oregon Ducks and the loser will go home to reflect on what could have been. That seems like a much more devastating and taxing task for the Buckeyes, as finishing the season with a loss to Michigan and a first-round CFP exit is a stain that will never go away.

We’ve seen pretty steady action towards the underdog and the Under in this game, as kickoff approaches in Columbus.

 

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CFP First Round: Tennessee Volunteers at Ohio State Buckeyes (-7.5, 46)

Saturday Dec. 21, 8 p.m. ET

It seems odd to say that one of the alleged Top 12 teams in the country hasn’t been talked about a lot, but that feels like the case with the Tennessee Volunteers. The Vols, who beat Alabama, but lost to Arkansas and Georgia, didn’t play nearly as tough of a SEC schedule as other CFP hopefuls. But, they mostly took care of their business and beat the teams that they were supposed to as a fixture near the top of the rankings.

Ohio State, who beat Penn State head-to-head and lost by a smaller margin to Oregon, for whatever that’s worth in the eyes of the CFP Committee, draws what appears to be a pretty tough schematic matchup as the No. 8 seed. The prize for these two teams is a date with the Ducks in the Rose Bowl, so we either get a rematch or we get Oregon as close to a double-digit favorite in the Quarterfinals.

The Vols are here because of their defense. The offense racked up 247 points in four non-conference games, but struggled against SEC competition. The full-season numbers will say that Tennessee was eighth in scoring offense with 37.3 points per game and 33rd in yards per play with 6.26. Most teams look worse if you take away their non-conference games, but the Vols scored 25 PPG against SEC foes and mustered just 5.45 yards per play, a noteworthy drop from their season average.

We can all agree that Ohio State is much closer to a high-level SEC team, so these numbers do seem particularly relevant. However, so do the defensive numbers, with the Vols fourth in total defense and fourth in yards per play with 4.33. They allowed 4.86 YPP in SEC action, so there was an obvious gap given the weakness of the non-con schedule, but still. This is a formidable unit and a top-notch defensive line with just 3.28 yards per carry allowed in conference games and 21 sacks in eight games.

Clear questions exist about the offense going outside in December to play in Columbus, so the defense will be tasked with slowing down an Ohio State offense that moved the ball on almost everybody, except for Michigan. The Buckeyes had 467 yards against Oregon and nearly seven yards per play. Oregon’s defense heads into the CFP 21st in yards per play allowed on defense.

This is a game that has a ton of extra layers to it. You have two highly-paid QBs via the NIL, but Nico Iamaleava was given a massive bag from Tennessee to win these types of games during his career. That still feels like it pales in comparison to what’s at stake for Ryan Day here. His job may very well be on the line. And he’s the guy who signed off on bringing in Will Howard, who has mostly played well, but has had some egregious interceptions against Penn State and Michigan.

While the Vols have played extremely well on defense in terms of limiting explosives and controlling the line of scrimmage, they only forced 13 takeaways in eight SEC games and didn’t play Texas or South Carolina. They had zero takeaways and gave up 453 yards to Georgia. But, they should have the advantage in the trenches against the Buckeyes, which could lead to some game-changing plays.

Lastly, will Day and OC Chip Kelly learn from their Michigan mistakes and trust Howard and the wide receivers? That may be the biggest key to this game and we won’t know until the teams are between the lines.

Ultimately, like so many, I expect the defenses to win the day and like Under the total, which has been bet down to 46 since this preview first appeared in our College Football Playoff Betting Guide.

Pick: Under 46

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