On Friday, December 27th, the Texas A&M Aggies face the USC Trojans in the SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl. This is the finale of a fun five-game slate, and it’ll be interesting to see how this one goes. Keep reading for odds, analysis and predictions for this showdown. But make sure you also check out our College Football Bowl Games Hub for all of our VSiN college football betting content.

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl: Texas A&M Aggies vs. USC Trojans

How To Watch Texas A&M vs. USC

Where: Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada
When: 10:30 pm ET on Friday, December 27th
Channel: ESPN

 

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Texas A&M vs. USC Odds

Moneyline: Texas A&M -170, USC +142
Spread: Texas A&M -3.5 (-108), USC +3.5 (-112)
Total: Over 52 (-108), Under 52 (-112)

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish. They can change. Shop around for the best prices!

Texas A&M vs. USC Prediction

USC isn’t in great shape heading into this bowl game. The Trojans lost starters Kyron Hudson, Duce Robinson, Zachariah Branch and Mason Murphy in the portal. Also, Woody Marks and Jaylin Smith opted out. On top of Marks being out, backup Quinten Joyner is heading to Texas Tech. So, USC will be without its two best running backs. The Trojans also lost some depth pieces on both sides of the ball.

For Texas A&M, Cyrus Allen is transferring and Nic Scourton, Shemar Stewart and Shemar Turner are opting out. That trio of defensive ends will be missed, but Mike Elko should still be able to coach up his defense and get pressure on USC. After all, the Trojans don’t have a great offensive line. And realistically, it’s hard to worry about an Elko defense at all. This was something of a down year for his standards, but the Aggies defense was still 23rd in the nation in EPA per play allowed (-0.066).

With so much time to prepare, Texas A&M should be able to make life difficult on quarterback Jayden Maiava, who threw two costly picks in a loss to Notre Dame the last time we saw him. Maiava is very talented, but he’s a little inaccurate and won’t have the usual suspects at the skill positions. Lincoln Riley has also lost some of his mojo as a play caller. USC is 13th in EPA per play (0.087) this year, but the team is inconsistent and struggles with physical defenses.

I also like the Aggies to move the ball against this Trojans defense. Texas A&M is 28th in EPA per play (0.059) this year, and Marcel Reed’s ability to run should come in handy in a game like this. D’Anton Lynn is a good defensive coordinator, but USC still has some work to do when it comes to bringing in talent at every level of the defense. The Trojans are just 40th in EPA per play allowed (0.130). And they were a little soft against the run. An SEC offensive line should be able to take advantage of that.

Mike Elko was also 2-0 both straight-up and against the spread in bowl games with Duke. Riley is 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS in bowl games in his career, and that includes 1-2 SU and ATS marks with USC. That said, Texas A&M is the more talented team and the tougher team. The Aggies will likely be more prepared, too. I’m laying the points. But I also considered going Over. I don’t think USC is going to be able to stop A&M, and it’s going to be hard for the Aggies to completely keep a Riley offense down. The Over is also 7-5 in Texas A&M games this season, and it’s 3-0 in Riley’s bowl games with the Trojans.

Pick: Texas A&M -3.5 (-105)

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