Texas State Bobcats:
The hype train is flying down the tracks for the Bobcats, who took San Marcos by storm last season by posting the program’s first winning record since 2014 and first bowl win in program history. Second-year head coach GJ Kinne is probably only there for one more season after the team went from four wins to eight wins and had an incredible offensive turnaround.
Interestingly, Texas State saw a lot of players hit the portal, but Kinne and his staff worked quickly to replace them, as nearly 40 players came in or out of the program. Hopes are very high with this team, but it takes a different mindset to reach new goals.
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Offense
Normally, you would look at a situation like Texas State’s and expect some regression. QB TJ Finley transferred to Western Kentucky after putting up a 24/8 TD/INT ratio with 3,439 yards and a 67.4% completion rate. But, Kinne moved quickly and secured a commitment from former James Madison QB Jordan McCloud, who is in his fifth season of college football and racked up 43 total touchdowns and nearly 4,000 yards with the Dukes.
So, the QB position is fine and leading rusher Ismail Mahdi is back with 1,331 yards to his name last season. The WR room is mostly back, though Ashtyn Hawkins transferred to Baylor. Texas State was 35th in yards per play and fell 73 rushing yards short of being one of five teams with 2,500 rushing yards and 3,500 passing yards. The teams that achieved it? Oregon, LSU, Georgia, and Texas.
Defense
A guy like Kinne, who played QB and rapidly rose up the coaching ranks on the offensive side, turning the offense around was expected, though maybe not to the degree that it happened. But, it was going to take time on the defensive side and that was certainly the case. Texas State actually gave up 77 points to Arkansas State late in the year. That game was an outlier that pushed the Bobcats to a 114th-place finish in scoring defense, but illustrated all sorts of issues.
Kinne plucked from the portal and also made a change with safeties coach Dexter McCoil promoted to defensive coordinator. McCoil is only in his third year of coaching, as he is just 32 years old, but that may give him a greater rapport with the players. He certainly has Kinne’s ear, as he gave him a job in 2022 at Incarnate Word and was a teammate of GJ’s at Tulsa.
Outlook
It is hard not to be excited about Texas State because they play an exciting brand of football. The offense has the chance to be one of the best in the nation, but the defense will establish the ceiling for the program. A shot at revenge against UTSA and a Power Four opponent in Arizona State will give us a “State of the Defensive Union” early on. I do like this team, but I don’t know that there’s betting value either way on the win total of 8. I have 8.55 and lean Over.
Pick: Over 8 Wins
