Texas Tech vs. Utah Odds and Picks
On Saturday, September 20th, the Utah Utes host the Texas Tech Red Raiders in a game with massive implications in the Big 12. Both teams are looking like legitimate contenders in this conference, but only one of them can walk away from Rice-Eccles Stadium with a season-changing win. All year, we’re going to be diving into some of the biggest college football games of the season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds and picks for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 4 College Football Betting Hub for a look at all of our college football betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How to Watch Texas Tech vs. Utah
Where: Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City, Utah
When: Saturday, September 20th at 12:00 pm ET
Channel: FOX
Texas Tech vs. Utah Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Wednesday, September 17th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Utah -155, Texas Tech +130
Spread: Utah -3 (-112), Texas Tech +3 (-108)
Total: Over 57.5 (-110), Under 57.5 (-110)
Texas Tech vs. Utah Analysis
It’s still very early in the season, but it certainly looks like Utah’s offense is legit. After bringing offensive coordinator Jason Beck and quarterback Devon Dampier over from New Mexico, Kyle Whittingham’s team is third in the nation in EPA per play (0.046) through three weeks. The Utes are third in both Rush EPA per play (0.030) and Dropback EPA per play (0.050), meaning they’re ripping through teams however they want.
Dampier, who has always been an electric runner, has also looked rather sharp as a passer. He has completed 73.0% of his passes for 628 yards and seven touchdowns, and he hasn’t yet thrown an interception. That last one is a little surprising, as Dampier threw 12 picks in 2024.
Of course, the Texas Tech defense will be a step up in competition. Utah hasn’t been challenged much by UCLA, Cal Poly and Wyoming, and Texas Tech is allowing only 11.7 points per game this year. However, the Red Raiders are outside the Top 40 in both Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.002) and Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.008). So, as of this moment, they look good, not great. Plus, when looking at the actual makeup of the team, the front seven is a big-time strength. But Utah’s offensive line could be up for the Joe Moore Award this season, so the Utes should be up for the battle in the trenches. And Dampier’s ability to extend plays with his legs should neutralize the pass rush.
On the other side of things, Utah is currently third in nation in overall EPA per play allowed (-0.023), fifth in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.012) and sixth in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.035). The Utes are downright scary at every level of the defense, which isn’t surprising considering they allowed only 20.7 points per game last year and brought back seven players with starting experience. That was more than enough for Morgan Scalley, one of the best defensive coordinators in football, to work with. Plus, Whittingham is a defensive mastermind himself.
It’s also hard not to see that Behren Morton, Texas Tech’s starting quarterback, has struggled in big road games. In 2023, he threw zero touchdown passes and four picks in road matchups against ranked opponents. And last year, while Tech did beat Iowa State on the road, Morton went 21 for 40 for 237 yards with two touchdowns and two picks. With that in mind, over the last three seasons, his TD-INT ratio in such games is 2-6. Are we sure he can handle this defense, in this venue?
Speaking of the venue, Utah is 87-14 straight-up and 56-44-1 against the spread as a home favorite under Whittingham. The team is also 25-7 SU and 19-12-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7 or fewer under him. Meanwhile, with Joey McGuire at the helm, Texas Tech is 1-3 both SU and ATS when facing defenses that allow 3.25 or fewer yards per carry.
Let’s also throw in the fact that Texas Tech’s team was largely built through the transfer portal. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but these guys were thrown together with very little time spent in the program. That might be a bit of a disadvantage as the team looks to face a Utah program that has a very strong culture.
Texas Tech vs. Utah Prediction
In looking at our VSiN betting splits, it’s pretty clear that the sharp money is on Texas Tech in this game — which is something Josh Appelbaum confirmed in his early Week 4 sharp report. Generally speaking, I like to be on the sharper side in a game, as those are the bettors that get things right a little more often. However, those bettors do lose a good amount of their plays, so going against them isn’t a death sentence. And I really feel like Utah is the right side in this one. The Red Raiders are undoubtedly stacked with talent, but the Utes are a well-coached team, their roster is better than it has been in a long time and Rice-Eccles Stadium is one of the hardest places to win in college football. I’ll lay 2.5 at a slightly juiced number and live with the result.
Bet: Utah -2.5 (-122)
