Texas vs. Ohio State Odds and Picks
One of the biggest games on the Week 1 college football schedule features the Ohio State Buckeyes hosting the Texas Longhorns at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio. We’re going to be diving into some of the biggest college football games of the week this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds and picks for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 1 College Football Betting Hub for a look at all of our college football betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How to Watch Texas vs. Ohio State
Where: Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio
When: Saturday, August 30th at 12:00 pm ET
Channel: FOX Sports
Texas vs. Ohio State Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of 11:30 am ET on Wednesday, August 27th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Ohio State -122, Texas +102
Spread: Ohio State -1.5 (-112), Texas +1.5 (-108)
Total: Over 47.5 (-112), Under 47.5 (-108)
Texas vs. Ohio State Analysis
We have never seen as many opening-week games between top-10 teams as we’ll see in Week 1 of the college football season, and you have to go back to 1978 for a regular season weekend that features this many top-10 matchups. And while the other two games — LSU-Clemson and Notre Dame-Miami — are excellent, this meeting between Texas and Ohio State takes the cake as the biggest.
Last season, we saw Ohio State earn a 28-14 win over Texas in the College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic. The Buckeyes then finished their story — which included suffering a regular-season loss to Michigan as one of the chapters — by beating the Fighting Irish to win the national title.
Revenge will be on the minds of the visitors here, and that’s interesting because Steve Sarkisian’s group also happens to be the No. 1 team in the country. That said, bet against the Longhorns at your own peril. Hungry and talented is a dangerous combination.
Texas will have a lot of advantages in this game. For starters, while he’s a bit unproven himself, Arch Manning will be the best quarterback on the field in this one. There’s an absurd amount of hype surrounding the first-year starter, but he has impressed when he has been given chances to run this offense. Manning has a big arm, accuracy to every part of the field and unique ability to make things happen with his legs. That last one will be important with Texas working in four new starters along the offensive line after a year in which the big boys up front were finalists for the Joe Moore Award. One of the few question marks the Longhorns face heading into this season is how the line will perform, but I’m not too worried about it. The guys that will be sliding into starting positions are former top-100 recruits that have been working hard and developing behind the scenes.
The most important thing with Texas is that the team brings back seven players with starting experience from a defense that allowed only 15.3 points per game (third in NCAA) last year. The Longhorns were also sixth in the nation in explosive passes against, according to Pick Six Previews. Sure, the team lost some talent in the secondary, with Jahdae Barron and Andrew Mukuba gone. But Texas has three starters back from last year’s secondary, and we should see some of them step up and flirt with All-SEC production. It helps that the Longhorns will have some absolute dudes putting pressure on Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin. All of that should help the road team keep wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, the best player in college football, in check.
Speaking of Sayin, quarterbacks making their first start against a top-ranked opponent are 0-18 over the past 20 years. And not only will Sayin be making his first start, but Ohio State lost offensive coordinator Chip Kelly to the NFL. New coordinator Brian Hartline has been in Columbus for a while, so people are anticipating an easy transition here. But there’s nothing easy about calling the shots in a high-profile game like this one, and Texas defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski will surely be ready to throw some stuff at the Sayin-Hartline combo to see how they handle it.
Kelly isn’t the only coordinator Ryan Day lost. Jim Knowles, recognized as a top-five defensive coordinator in the nation, left to take the same position at Penn State. That’s also alarming for the Buckeyes. They’ll be putting their trust in Matt Patricia to operate the defense against Sarkisian, who is one of the brightest offensive minds on the planet. Patricia brings three Super Bowl rings to Columbus, but this is the first time in nearly 20 years that he’s working on a college campus. It’s fair to wonder if the adjustment will take time.
Home-field advantage does count for something, especially with Ohio State having a significant one at The Shoe. But it does feel like there’s a little more to feel good about with the Texas side of things.
As far as the total goes, these teams did go Under when they met in last year’s playoff game. And while the number is low, both teams are working with young quarterbacks — and doing so against elite defenses. The Under is also 5-2 in Texas games with lines of +3 to -3 under Sarkisian, and it’s also 9-4 in the games with totals between 42.5 and 49 that Ohio State has played under Day. If that’s not enough, the Under is 7-1 in the Longhorns’ last eight road games.
I’ll also point out that our VSiN betting splits pages show that the total has come down despite the fact that there’s more tickets on the Over. There’s similar reverse line movement with the Texas spread and moneyline, so the “sharp” plays seem to be Texas and the Under.
Texas vs. Ohio State Prediction
Ohio State was the best team in college football last season, but the team lost its starting quarterback and both of its coordinators — along with several other key pieces. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Buckeyes end up looking like a title contender later in the year, but I feel they’ll need a little more time than the Longhorns will. So, I’m banking on the edge in continuity being the difference maker for Texas in this massive road tilt. The motivation of avenging last year’s playoff loss doesn’t hurt either.
Lean: Texas ML (+110)
