Today we have a trio of post-Christmas Bowl Games on tap across the College Football gridiron. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for all three matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1 p.m. ET: Central Michigan vs Northwestern (-11.5, 43.5)
This is the GameAbove Sports Bowl and it will be played at Ford Field, home of the Detroit Lions.
Central Michigan (7-5) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to Toledo 21-3 and failing to cover as 10.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, Northwestern (6-6) has dropped four of their last five and just came up short again Illinois 20-13 but managed to cover as 7.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Northwestern listed as a 12.5-point neutral site favorite.
The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this 50/50 ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen Northwestern tumble from -12.5 to -11.5, with some shops even touching as low as -10.5 over the past 24-hours.
Normally, in a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the spread. So, based on the line move we can infer that respected action has sided with big dog Central Michigan plus the points.
At DraftKings, Central Michigan is taking in 50% of spread bets and 58% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the Chippewas.
Central Michigan has correlative betting value as a double-digit dog in a low total game (43.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the big favorite to cover.
In terms of the total, it opened at 43.5 and the public is leaning over at DraftKings (64% of bets), yet the total is still sitting at 43.5. In fact, the 43.5 is being juiced under -115 and some shops have dipped down to 43.
At Circa, the under is taking in 54% of bets and 66% of dollars, further evidence of smart money out in Vegas leaning toward a lower scoring game.
4:30 p.m. ET: New Mexico vs Minnesota (-1.5, 43.5)
This is the Rate Bowl and it will be played at Chase Field, home of the Arizona Diamondbacks.
New Mexico (9-3) has won six straight and just took down San Diego State 23-17 in double overtime, winning outright as 1.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Minnesota (7-5) just snapped a two-game losing streak with a 17-7 win over Wisconsin, covering as a 2-point home favorite.
This line opened with Minnesota listed as a 3.5-point neutral site favorite.
The public is all over the Gophers laying short chalk. However, despite receiving 70% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Minnesota fall from -3.5 to -1.5.
This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of New Mexico, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, New Mexico is taking in 30% of spread bets but 44% of spread dollars. At Circa, New Mexico is receiving 53% of spread bets and 59% spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the dog Lobos plus the points.
We’ve also seen a steady dose of under action hit the total, dropping the line from 47.5 to 43.5.
At Circa, the under is taking in 43% of bets but a whopping 86% of dollars, further evidence of heavy smart money from the sharps in the desert banking on a lower scoring game.
The Gophers could be down several key players due to opt-outs and injuries, including star WR Le’Meke Brockington and RBs Darius Taylor and Fame Ijeboi. On the other hand, New Mexico looks to be fully loaded and motivated to earn a Bowl Game victory for first year head coach Jason Eck.
8 p.m. ET: Florida International vs UTSA (-5.5, 61)
This is the SERVPRO First Responder Bowl and it will be played at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas.
Florida International (7-5) has won four straight and just brushed aside Sam Houston 56-16, easily covering as 10.5-point road favorites. On the other hand, UTSA (6-6) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to Army 27-24 and losing outright as 7.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with UTSA listed as high as a 9.5-point neutral site favorite.
We’ve seen a massive line move in favor of Florida International, dropping the Panthers all the way down from +9.5 to +5.5. This movement is especially notable because the public is laying the points with UTSA at DraftKings (59% of spread bets), yet the line moved in favor of Florida International.
At Circa, Florida International is only receiving 43% of spread bets and 51% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split in favor of the dog Panthers plus the points.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen a wave of over action hit the market and increase the number up from 59.5 to 61.
At DraftKings, the over is taking in 63% of bets and 85% of dollars. At Circa, the over is receiving 68% of bets and 74% of dollars. Both books are showing a sharp Pro and Joe bet discrepancy in favor of a higher scoring game.
UTSA is expected to miss as many as 20 players due to injuries and opt-outs, which is a big reason why we saw such a massive line move in favor of Florida International.
UTSA head coach Jeff Traylor went as far as to say his team will be “a shell of themselves.”
