Tonight we have a tripleheader of Friday Night Lights action across the College Football gridiron. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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7 p.m. ET: Georgia State at Connecticut (-7, 48)

Georgia State (2-5) has lost four straight games and just came up short against Appalachian State 33-26 but managed to cover as 7.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, Connecticut (5-3) has won four of their last five games and just took down Rice 17-10, pushing as 7-point home favorites. This line opened with Connecticut listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public expects the Huskies to cover at home and 71% of spread bets are laying the points with Connecticut. This lopsided support drove Connecticut up from -7 to -8.5 earlier this week. However, since that time we’ve seen sharp buyback on Georgia State as an inflated dog, dropping the line back down to either -7.5 or -7 depending on the book. Georgia State offers notable contrarian value as they are only receiving 29% of spread bets in a heavily bet game on CBSSN. Friday road dogs are 14-5 ATS (73%) with a 42% ROI this season. The Panthers have additional buy-low value as a dog on a losing streak against a sell-high favorite who has won four of their last five. Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 48.5 to 48 and even 47.5 at some places. This downward movement is notable because the public is pounding the over (69% of bets), yet the total fell, signaling sharp under reverse line movement. The forecast calls for low 60s with clear skies and 7-10 MPH winds.

7:30 p.m. ET: South Florida (-2.5, 47.5) at Florida Atlantic

South Florida (3-4) just snapped a three-game losing skid with a 35-25 win over UAB, although they failed to cover as 14-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Florida Atlantic (2-5) has lost three of their last four and just fell to UTSA 38-24, failing to cover as 4.5-point road dogs. This line opened with South Florida listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public is all over South Florida laying short road chalk and 75% of spread bets are backing the road favorite Bulls. This lopsided action drove South Florida up from -2.5 to -3. However, once the key number was available we saw sharp buyback on Florida Atlantic +3, dropping the line back down to 2.5. Essentially, we are now looking at a sharp line freeze on Florida Atlantic, as the we are right back where we started despite such heavy betting on South Florida. Florida Atlantic is only receiving 25% of spread bets in a heavily bet ESPN2 game, offering notable contrarian value. Florida Atlantic is also a conference dog system match, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Wiseguys have hammered the under, dropping the total from as high as 54 down to 47.5. The under is only receiving 19% of bets yet the total fell, signaling heavy under sharp action. The forecast calls for high 70s with partly cloudy skies and 12-15 MPH. This indicates a “windy under” system match. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is roughly 55% over the past decade.

8 p.m. ET: San Diego State at Boise State (-24.5, 56.5)

San Diego State (3-4) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to Washington State 29-26 but easily covering as 17-point home dogs. On the flip side, Boise State (6-1, ranked 15th) has won five straight games and just held off UNLV 29-24, covering as 4-point road favorites. This line opened with Boise State listed as a 23.5-point home favorite. The public expects a blowout win and 70% of spread bets are laying the big chalk with Boise State. This lopsided support drove Boise State up from -23.5 to -24.5. We are now seeing several shops juice up San Diego State +24.5 (-115), signaling some possible buyback and resistance on San Diego State at an inflated price. San Diego State is only receiving 30% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game on FSI, offering notable “bet against the public” contrarian value. San Diego State is also a buy-low unranked dog against a sell-high ranked opponent, as well as a conference dog with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field benefiting the team getting points. The Aztecs offer correlative betting value as a massive dog in a relatively low total game (56.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover the big number. Friday road dogs are 14-5 ATS (74%) with a 42% ROI this season. In terms of the total, the public is going over (65% of bets), yet we’ve seen the total fall from 57.5 to 56.5, indicating some smart under money on a lower scoring game. The forecast calls for low 50s, cloudy skies and 10-15 MPH winds, which qualifies as a “windy under” system match.

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