Week 1 of the College Football regular season continues today with 8 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:30 p.m. ET: San Jose State at Eastern Michigan (-2.5, 55.5)
San Jose State (0-1) just fell to USC 42-26 in their season opener but managed to cover as 38.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, Eastern Michigan (1-0) just beat Sacramento State 28-17 in their opening game, covering as 9.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Eastern Michigan listed as high as a 4.5-point home favorite.
Sharps are expecting a close game and have gotten down hard on San Jose State plus the points, dropping Eastern Michigan from -4.5 to -2.5. The movement toward the Spartans has been consistent and steady (especially late through the key number of 3), without any notable buyback on the Eagles.
At DraftKings, San Jose State is receiving 54% of spread bets and 71% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Spartans are taking in 48% of spread bets and a whopping 98% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the road dog plus the points, especially the wiseguys in the desert.
San Jose State offers buy-low value as an underdog off a loss against a sell-high favorite off a win.
Short road dogs getting 3-points or less have gone 475-402 ATS (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2012.
Normally, the home team receives roughly 3-points for home field advantage, so if the spread is 3-points or less in favor of the home team the oddsmakers are inferring that the two teams are roughly even and the game would be a virtual pick’em at a neutral site. Therefore, taking the points with the short road dog has proven to be a smart move long term.
Sharps have also hit the over, raising the total from 53.5 to 55.5, with some shops touching as high as 56 on gameday.
At Circa, the over is receiving 71% of bets and 88% of dollars, a sharp split in favor of a higher scoring game from the Vegas pros.
8 p.m. ET: Toledo at Michigan State (-10.5, 47.5)
Toledo went 8-5 last season and oddsmakers expect a similar result this year as their win total sits at 7.5 at DraftKings with the over juiced to -130. Meanwhile, Michigan State finished a disappointing 4-8 last year and oddsmakers expect another losing campaign this season as their win total rests at 4.5 with the under juiced to -156.
This line opened with Michigan State listed as an 11.5-point home favorite.
The public thinks this line is too short and 71% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Spartans at home.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Michigan State tumble from -11.5 to -10.5, with some shops down to -10.
This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of Toledo plus the points, as the line has moved toward the Rockets despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, Toledo is taking in 29% of spread bets but 45% of spread dollars. At Circa, Toledo is receiving 39% of spread bets but 59% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” discrepancy in favor of the road dog plus the points.
Toledo offers correlative betting value as a double-digit dog in a low total game (47.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the big favorite to cover the number.
Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 49.5 to 47.5.
At DraftKings, the under is receiving only 47% of bets but a hefty 93% of dollars, a sharp contrarian split in favor of a lower scoring game.
