Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for September 4. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Friday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Friday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Roman Anthony Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs (-126) vs. Orioles
Red Sox at Orioles – 7:05 pm ET
Anthony has had at least two HRR in each of his last five games, so the time off clearly didn’t bother him. Tonight, I like the lefty slugger to have another productive game, as he’ll be up against a righty in Shane Baz. Anthony is averaging 2.0 HRR per game in his last 20 games against right-handed starters, and I don’t think this is a terrible matchup for him. Anthony does struggle against curveballs, which Baz throws quite a bit, but he’s in the 91st percentile in MLB in Barrel% against fastballs. That’s a pitch Baz throws nearly half the time.
Matt Wilkinson Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-108) vs. Mets
Giants at Mets – 7:10 pm ET
Wilkinson is coming off a four-K outing against the Diamondbacks. The lefty now faces a Mets team that has a strikeout rate of 23.4% against southpaws this season, so he has a good shot at doing it again. The only concern I have with Wilkinson is pitch count, as San Francisco has been stretching him out. But he did throw 90 pitches in his last start.
Logan Gilbert Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-105 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 8+ (+215 – 0.5 units) vs. Athletics
Athletics at Mariners – 10:10 pm ET
Gilbert has only reached the seven-K mark in one of his last seven starts, but I like him to run through the Athletics tonight. Gilbert, who averages 6.1 strikeouts per game for the season, strikes out 6.6 batters per game at home. Well, he’ll now heads to T-Mobile Park and faces an Athletics lineup that has a whiff percentage of 25.9% against righties this year. He should get up in the count often here, and I trust him to do some damage with his put-away pitches.
Additional Picks
Shane Drohan Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+105) vs. Reds
Ryan Johnson Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-117) vs. Pirates
Alec Burleson Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-112) vs. Rockies
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Andres Chaparro Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-132) vs. Dodgers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.77 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -488 — a +26.1% edge to the Over.
Esteury Ruiz Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-134) vs. Cubs
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.73 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -464 — a +25.0% edge to the Over.
Evan Carter Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-148) vs. Rays
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.84 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -529 — a +24.4% edge to the Over.
