Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, September 4, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: MILWAUKEE is on an extended 38-14 (73.1%, +20.80 units) run versus Cincinnati in head-to-head play.
– The ROI on this trend is 40%
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-164 at CIN)
Small home favorites of -106 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 458-393 but for -95.31 units and an ROI of -11.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-120 vs ATL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-117 vs MIN)
Trend: Walker Buehler’s teams are 27-11 (+14.75 units) when he starts vs AL opponents since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-102 vs NYY)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar teams in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go-against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 61-51 for -6.45 units for an ROI of -5.8%.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): SEATTLE (-229 vs ATH)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go-against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 82-128 for -49.98 units and an ROI of -23.8%! Fading these teams continues to produce and this has been our most consistent angle this season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND GAME 1 (-130 vs DET), TORONTO (-102 at KC), HOUSTON (-131 vs AZ)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, with a month left, they are now 139-206 start for -25.06 units (-7.3% ROI) after losing about 34.75 units over the 2-1/2 months. This angle has finally gone deep into the red for the season, it’s usual territory, and continues to fall fast!
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+158 at NYM), COLORADO (+105 vs STL), WASHINGTON (+233 at LAD), DETROIT GAME 2 (+119 at CLE), ATHLETICS (+186 at SEA), LA ANGELS (+163 at PIT)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 88-51 for -24.87 units, ROI -17.9%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-193 vs SF), LA DODGERS (-292 vs WSH), SEATTLE (-229 vs ATH), PITTSBURGH (-198 vs LAA)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 282-350 for -31.76 units, and comes off a rough two-and-a-half-week stretch, giving back over 21 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-101 at PHI), MIAMI (+134 vs CHC), COLORADO (+105 vs STL), TAMPA BAY (-104 at TEX), TORONTO (-102 at KC)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 238-163 for +45.10 units, an ROI of +11.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-120 at BAL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-117 vs MIN), NY YANKEES (-119 at SD)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 174-201 start for -40.88 units (ROI -10.9%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+136 vs MIL), ATHLETICS (+186 at SEA)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 150-169 for +3.26 units. However, it has lost -10.00 units over the last two months.
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+100 vs BOS)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -106 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 264-196 for +25.69 units and an ROI of 5.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (-127 at COL), NY YANKEES (-119 at SD)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -104 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 163-202 for -36.91 units and an ROI of -10.1% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+105 vs STL)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -106 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 458-393 but for -95.31 units and an ROI of -11.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-120 vs ATL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-117 vs MIN)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 474-421 record for +46.30 units and an ROI of 5.2% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-101 at PHI), DETROIT (+119 at CLE), NY YANKEES (-119 at SD), TORONTO (-102 at KC)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,225-2,101 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -266.67 units. This represents an ROI of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-101 at PHI), NY METS (-193 vs SF), DETROIT (+119 at CLE)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2288-2875 (44.3%) for -274.10 units and an ROI of -5.3% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, ARIZONA, SAN FRANCISCO, MILWAUKEE, CHICAGO CUBS, TAMPA BAY, ST LOUIS
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 680-571 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +17.02 units, for an ROI of 1.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-117 vs MIN), PITTSBURGH (-199 vs LAA)
Ride the hot bats to Overs
Once the calendar hits June, home teams who hit 3+ HRs themselves but also gave up 3+ HRs in their previous game have had their totals go Over at a 71-50-5 (58.7%) rate in the follow-up game in the last three seasons (including a 41-23 Over streak in the last 64).
System Match (PLAY OVER): BOS-BAL (o/u at 8)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 594-582 for +24.17 units, good for +2.1% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: MIAMI +134 (+36 diff), WASHINGTON +233 (+35), TAMPA BAY -104 (+33), DETROIT GAME 1 +108 (+11)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: CHICAGO WHITE SOX -117 (+39 diff), CLEVELAND GAME 2 -143 (+27), NY METS -193 (+17), ST LOUIS -127 (+16), BALTIMORE +100 (+13), MILWAUKEE -164 (+11)
If you’re looking for something that has produced with a little less ROI but provides more opportunities, consider the situation where, on Under projections so far, when the simulation shows at least a 0.6 run edge, UNDER’s are 120-96 for +11.95 units and an ROI of 5.5%. TODAY’s MATCH: DET-CLE GAME 1 UNDER 8 (-0.6)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(903) ATLANTA (83-57) at (904) PHILADELPHIA (79-61)
Trend: ATL is 17-6 (+7.38 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-1.5 at PHI)
(907) CHICAGO-NL (79-62) at (908) MIAMI (71-70)
Trend: CHC is 42-20 (+12.86 units) against teams with a < 0.57% win pct with starter Shota Imanaga since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-162 at MIA)
(911) WASHINGTON (67-75) at (912) LOS ANGELES-NL (83-57)
Trend: Over the total is 6-1 (+4.90 units) when starter Blake Snell has faced Washington in his career
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-LAD (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: LAD is 24-45 (-26.45 units) on the run line in home games this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-1.5 vs WSH)
(915) BOSTON (76-65) at (916) BALTIMORE (69-72)
Trend: BOS is 53-36 (+11.71 units) in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-120 at BAL)
(919) MINNESOTA (67-73) at (920) CHICAGO-AL (73-67)
Trend: Under the total is 5-1 (+3.90 units) when starter Erick Fedde faces Minnesota in his career (1.36 ERA in these six appearances)
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-CWS (o/u at 9)
(921) TAMPA BAY (83-57) at (922) TEXAS (70-71)
Trend: Under the total is 33-17-3 (+14.10 units) when starter Nick Martinez is in higher-total games (o/u >= 8.5) since the start of the 2022 season
Trend: Under the total is 9-1 (+8.00 units) with starter Kumar Rocker in home games versus opponents with a >= 0.500 win pct since the start of the 2024 season
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-TEX (o/u at 8.5)
(923) TORONTO (70-71) at (924) KANSAS CITY (63-78)
Trend: Jameson Taillon’s teams are 14-8 (+3.88 units) in his last 22 starts against AL Central opponents
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-102 at KC)
(925) ATHLETICS (55-86) at (926) SEATTLE (66-75)
Trend: SEA is 42-71 (-20.76 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 vs ATH)
Trend: SEA is 10-0 (+10.25 units) at home vs the Athletics with Logan Gilbert in the last 4+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-229 vs ATH)
(927) LOS ANGELES-AL (53-87) at (928) PITTSBURGH (69-72)
Trend: Over the total is 43-24-2 (+16.60 units) in PIT home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): LAA-PIT (o/u at 8.5)
(931) NEW YORK-AL (80-60) at (932) SAN DIEGO (73-67)
Trend: Walker Buehler’s teams are 27-11 (+14.75 units) when he starts vs AL opponents since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-102 vs NYY)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #33: Milwaukee at Cincinnati, Fri 9/4-Sun 9/6
Trend: MILWAUKEE is on an extended 38-14 (73.1%, +20.80 units) run versus Cincinnati in head-to-head play.
– The ROI on this trend is 40%
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-164 at CIN)
Series #37: Tampa Bay at Texas, Thu 9/3-Sun 9/6
Trend: TEXAS is on a very profitable 15-3 (83.3%, +13.76 units) run versus Tampa Bay
– The ROI on this trend is 76.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-115 vs TB)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH, NY METS, CLEVELAND, HOUSTON, SEATTLE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): DETROIT
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, HOUSTON, NY YANKEES
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, HOUSTON
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIL-CIN, STL-COL
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
WASHINGTON
Letdown after series vs. ATLANTA: 11-27 (28.9%) -18.03 units, ROI: -47.4%
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+234 at LAD)
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