The first round of the College Football Playoff kicks off tonight as the Indiana Hoosiers travel to South Bend to face the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8 p.m. ET: Indiana at Notre Dame (-6.5, 50.5)
Indiana (11-1) is the 10-seed and just crushed Purdue 66-0 in their regular season finale, easily covering as 29-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Notre Dame (11-1) is the 7-seed and just took down USC 49-35, covering as 7-point home road favorites.
This line opened with Notre Dame listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. The public is leaning toward laying the points with the Irish, as Notre Dame is receiving 55% of spread bets at DraftKings and 63% of spread bets at Circa. However, despite receiving a majority of tickets we’ve seen the Fighting Irish fall from -7.5 to -6.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Indiana plus the points, as the line is moving in their direction despite being the unpopular play. The line movement has been steady and consistent in favor of Indiana with no discernible buyback on Notre Dame. We’ve also seen Indiana fall from +7 to +6.5 over the past 24-hours leading up to gameday. Late movement is always notable because it takes place when limits are raised and the biggest bets come in.
Indiana has heightened contrarian value as they are only taking in 45% of spread bets at DraftKings and 36% of spread bets at Circa in a heavily bet, primetime game on ABC/ESPN. At Circa, which prides itself on accepting sharp action from respected bettors, the Hoosiers are only getting 36% of spread bets but 70% of spread dollars, further evidence of the wiseguys in Vegas grabbing the points with the road dog. Indiana has value as a “dog who can score” system match (43.3 PPG), thereby keeping pace or backdoor covering. The Hoosiers also have correlative betting value as a touchdown dog in a relatively low total game (50.5), with the fewer amount of expected points making it harder for the favorite to cover.
Sharp money has also hit the under, dropping the total from 51.5 to 50.5. At DraftKings, the under is taking in 51% of bets but 69% of dollars. At Circa, the under is receiving 62% of bets but 85% of dollars. Both books are showing a relatively undecided public but also heavy smart money on a lower scoring game in the form of “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Weather could play a factor here, as the forecast calls for frigid temperatures in the mid 20s with 10 MPH winds (gusts up to 15 MPH) and possibly some snow.
Both of these teams are at the lower end of the spectrum in terms of pace of play, where Indiana ranks 81st and Notre Dame 115th (out of 134 teams). Both teams also rank in the top 6 in fewest points per game allowed, with Notre Dame giving up 13.6 PPG (3rd) and Indiana giving up 15.7 PPG (6th).
