Happy New Year’s Eve! The College Football Playoff Quarterfinals kickoff tonight as Penn State faces Boise State in the VRBO Fiesta Bowl. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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7:30 p.m. ET: Penn State (-11, 54.5) vs Boise State

This postseason showdown will be played at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, home of the Arizona Cardinals. Penn State (12-2) is the 6-seed and just crushed SMU 38-10 in the first round of the CFB playoffs, easily covering as 9-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Boise State (12-1) is the 3-seed and coming off a bye after beating UNLV 21-7 in the Mountain West Championship, easily covering as 4-point home favorites.

This line opened with Penn State listed as a 10.5-point neutral site favorite. The public thinks this line is a bit high and they’re leaning toward grabbing the points with big dog Boise State. However, despite Boise State receiving 56% of spread bets at DraftKings and 64% of spread bets at Circa, we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Penn State (-10.5 to -11). Some books are even rising up to Nittany Lions -11.5 on gameday. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Penn State, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular play. In other words, while the public is grabbing the points with Boise State, professional bettors look to be fading the trendy dog and instead laying the points with Penn State. The movement has also been notably one-sided in the direction of Penn State, without any discernible buyback on Boise State.

The Nittany Lions have notable “bet against the public” value, as they are receiving a minority of bets in a heavily bet, primetime game on ESPN. At DraftKings, Penn State is only receiving 44% of spread bets but 55% of dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers laying the points.

Boise State has the better offense, averaging 39.1 PPG compared to 33.9 PPG for Penn State. However, Penn State has the stingier defense, giving up just 15.9 PPG compared to Boise State allowing 21.9 PPG. Ashton Jeanty, the nation’s leading running back, will face a Nittany Lions defense that is only giving up 100.4 rushing yards per game, 4th best in the nation. In terms of passing defense, Penn State is only allowing 179.6 passing yards per game (11th best in CFB) while Boise State is giving up 256.6 passing yards per game (113th).

Strength of schedule favors Penn State, who hails from the loaded Big Ten while Boise State beat up on lesser opponents in the Mountain West. Rest vs rust is also a consideration here, as Boise State is playing their first game since December 6th while Penn State last played on December 21st and already has a playoff win under their belt.

Sharps have also hit the over, raising the total from as low as 52.5 to 54.5. At DraftKings, the over is receiving 71% of bets and 72% of dollars. At Circa, the over is receiving 69% of bets and 73% of dollars. Both books are showing one-sided Pro and Joe action in favor of a higher scoring game. Both teams possess potent offenses that average well over 30 PPG. The field conditions will also be ideal as this game will be played in a retractable roof stadium, which is expected to be closed.

Player Prop to Consider

Nicholas Singleton 74+ rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings): While the betting public focuses on Jeanty rushing props (deservedly so), Singleton should not be overlooked. The Penn State running back has gone over this number in three straight games, rushing for 87 yards against Maryland, 105 yards against Oregon and 90 yards in his last game against SMU. Singleton is part of a two-headed rushing attack for the Nittany Lions alongside Kaytron Allen. However, Singleton has gotten more opportunities with the ball in his hands recently, averaging 12.5 carries over his last four games compared to 11.3 carries for Allen. On the year, Singleton is averaging 6.4 yards per game compared to 4.8 for Allen. For those who are wondering, Allen’s rushing prop for this game is 55+ yards at -105.

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