Today we officially kick off Week 1 of the College Football season. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.

 

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12 p.m. ET: Penn State (-7.5, 50.5) at West Virginia

Penn State finished 10-3 last season with a 13th overall ranking. The Nittany Lions’ win total for this season is 10.5 with the under juiced to -165. On the other hand, West Virginia went 9-4 last season and finished unranked. The Mountaineers’ win total for this season is 6.5 with the over juiced to -130. Today’s line opened with Penn State listed as a 10-point road favorite. The public sees an easy double digit win with the 8th ranked team Nittany Lions and is rushing to the lay the points with Penn State. However, despite receiving 65% of spread bets we’ve seen Penn State fall from -10 to -7.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on West Virginia, as the line is moving in their direction despite being the unpopular side. The Mountaineers are receiving 35% of spread bets and 47% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. West Virginia has fishy buy-low, sell-high value as an unranked home dog against a ranked opponent. The Mountaineers are also one of the top “bet against the public” plays in the early window, receiving roughly a third of bets in a nationally televised FOX broadcast.

3:30 p.m. ET: Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts (-2.5, 50.5)

Eastern Michigan went 6-7 last season and their win total for this season is set at 4.5 with the over juiced to -150. Conversely, Massachusetts went 3-9 last season and their win total for this year is 3.5 with the over juiced to -125. This afternoon’s line opened with Eastern Michigan listed as a 1.5-point road favorite. The public is happy to fade UMass, who has been one of the worst teams in College Football in recent years. However, despite 55% of spread bets backing Eastern Michigan we’ve seen this line completely flip away from Eastern Michigan and toward Massachusetts (+1.5 to -2.5). This signals sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement on UMass, as the line has moved heavily in their favor despite being the unpopular side. The Minutemen are receiving 45% of spread bets and 65% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. This line move is also notable due to the fact this is one of the least popular games of the day, yet the wiseguys have specifically targeted the Minutemen. Those looking to follow the sharp UMass move but reluctant to lay the points in what may end up being a tight game could instead target the Minutemen on the moneyline at -135. This is also a revenge spot for UMass, who lost a close game at Eastern Michigan 19-17 last season.

7:30 p.m. ET: Notre Dame at Texas A&M (-3, 47)

Notre Dame went 10-3 last season, finishing with a 14th overall ranking. The Fighting Irish’s win total for this season is 10 with the over juiced to -115. Meanwhile, Texas A&M went 7-6, finishing unranked. The Aggies’ win total for this season is 8.5 with the over juiced to -120. Tonight’s primetime line opened with Texas A&M listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Sharps have jumped on the Aggies laying a short home spread, steaming Texas A&M up from -1.5 to -3. This move is especially notable because Texas A&M is ranked 20th and Notre Dame is ranked 7th, yet the line is moving toward the fishy side Aggies who own the worse ranking. Normally, you would expect the line to move toward the team with the better ranking. Texas A&M is receiving 57% of spread bets, indicating slight public support. However, in a vacuum a line shouldn’t move 1.5-points based on a relatively even bet split. So, we know based on the “severe” adjustment that pros have laid the points with the Aggies, ideally at -2.5 or less. Those looking to back the sharp Texas A&M line move but wary of now laying the key number of 3 could instead target the Aggies to win the game straight up on the moneyline (-150).

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