Today we have a loaded Saturday slate of Week 10 College Football action with over 90-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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12 p.m. ET: Ohio State (-3, 47.5) at Penn State

Ohio State (6-1, ranked 4th) just took down Nebraska 21-17 but failed to cover as 25-point home favorites. On the other hand, Penn State (7-0, ranked 3rd) just edged Wisconsin 28-13, covering as 6.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Ohio State listed as a 4-point road favorite. The public is expecting an Ohio State cover and 61% of spread bets are laying the points with the Buckeyes. However, despite receiving a majority of bets we’ve seen Ohio State fall from -4 to -3. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Penn State, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular play. Penn State is only receiving 39% of spread bets in the most heavily bet game of the day, offering notable “bet against the public” contrarian value. When two top-5 teams face off, the dog is 3-0 ATS this season and 29-17 ATS (63%) with a 21% ROI since 2006. Penn State has additional value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Those looking to follow the sharp Nittany Lions move would be wise to shop for a hook, as most books are offering Penn State +3 but a few outliers are still hanging +3.5 (-120).

3:30 p.m. ET: Oregon (-14.5, 45) at Michigan

Oregon (8-0, ranked 1st) just crushed Illinois 38-9, covering as 22-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Michigan (5-3) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 24-17 win over Michigan State, covering as 3.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Oregon listed as a 14.5-point road favorite. The public expects another Oregon blowout win and is happy to lay the big spread with the Ducks. However, despite receiving 81% of spread bets we’ve seen Oregon remain eerily stagnant at -14.5. Normally, if a team is receiving such lopsided support we would see them move up to -15 or -16. The fact that this line hasn’t budged despite heavy Oregon support signals a sharp line freeze on Michigan, with the books reluctant to move the number and give out additional points to the brave contrarian Michigan backers. The Wolverines are only receiving 19% of spread bets in a heavily bet late afternoon game on CBS, offering heightened “bet against the public” value. Michigan has buy-low value as an unranked home dog against a sell-high ranked opponent. The Wolverines are also in a prime correlative betting spot as they are a two-touchdown dog in a low total game (45), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the big favorite to cover. We could be looking at a lower scoring game, as the total has ticked down from 45.5 to 45, with some shops even down to 44.5. This movement is notable because the public is hammering the over (88% of bets), yet it fell. This signals some sharp under money.

7:30 p.m. ET: Texas A&M (-3, 44) at South Carolina

Texas A&M (7-1, ranked 10th) just brushed aside LSU 38-23, easily covering as 1.5-point home favorites. Similarly, South Carolina (4-3) just blasted Oklahoma 35-9, easily covering as 1-point road favorites. This line opened with Texas A&M listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is way too short and 76% of spread bets are laying the chalk with the Aggies. However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Texas A&M fall from -3.5 to -3. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on South Carolina, as the line has moved in favor of the Gamecocks despite being the highly unpopular play. South Carolina is only receiving 24% of spread bets but 57% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split in a heavily bet primetime game on ABC. South Carolina has additional value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. The Gamecocks are also a buy-low unranked home dog against a sell-high ranked opponent. South Carolina enjoys a “rest vs tired” advantage as they were off last week while Texas A&M played on Saturday against LSU and now must travel on the road. Pros have hit the under as well, dropping the total from 46.5 to 44. The under is only receiving 16% of bets but 38% of dollars, a sharp under bet discrepancy.

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