Today we have a loaded College Football Week 14 slate on tap with roughly 60-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 10-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

***Top College Football Betting Resources***

*It's the VSiN Black Friday Special. Take advantage of the largest savings of the year by upgrading to VSiN Pro. For a limited time, you can secure Pro access until May 1st for only $60.*

3:30 p.m. ET: Fresno State at UCLA (-7.5, 46.5)

Fresno State (6-5) just snapped a two-game losing streak with a 28-22 win over Colorado State, covering as 4-point home favorites. Conversely, UCLA (4-7) has lost two straight and just came up short against USC 19-13, failing to cover as 5-point home dogs. This line opened with UCLA listed as a 9.5-point home favorite. The public is leaning toward laying the points with UCLA at home. However, despite receiving 54% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen UCLA fall from -9.5 to -7.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Fresno State plus the points, as the line has moved drastically in their direction despite being the unpopular play. Fresno State is only receiving 46% of spread bets but a whopping 67% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy. Fresno State has correlative betting value as touchdown-plus dog in a low total game (46.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the bigger favorite to cover the number. Fresno State is also a “dog who can score” system match (27.8 PPG), thereby keeping pace or backdoor covering. UCLA has struggled on offense all season, averaging only 18.3 PPG. Fresno State also has a slight edge on defense, allowing 25 PPG while UCLA is giving up 26.4 PPG. UCLA is just 1-4 at home. Fresno State is 2-3 on the road.

7:30 p.m. ET: Texas (-4.5, 48.5) at Texas A&M

Texas (10-1, ranked 3rd) has won four straight and just brushed aside Kentucky 31-14 but failed to cover as 18.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Texas A&M (8-3, ranked 20th) has dropped two of their last three and just fell to Auburn 43-41 in overtime, losing outright as 2.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Texas listed as roughly a 5-point road favorite, with some books opening around -4.5 while others opened around -5.5. Regardless of the opener, the public thinks this line is way too short and 65% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Longhorns. Early in the week, we saw Texas rise as high as -6.5. However, since that time we’ve seen nothing but sharp Texas A&M buyback, dropping the line back down to Texas -5.5. Some shops are even falling as low as -4.5 on gameday. Essentially, all late movement is breaking back toward the Aggies plus the points. Texas A&M has notable contrarian value, as they are only receiving 35% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game on ABC. At DraftKings, the Aggies are only receiving 35% of spread bets but 44% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Aggies are receiving 40% of spread bets but 59% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the home dog. Texas A&M has buy-low value as a dog off a loss against a sell-high favorite off a win. In terms of the total, it opened at 48.5, rose to as high as 50 and has since come back down to 48.5. The under is receiving 30% of bets but 52% of dollars at DraftKings, a notable sharp bet split.

7:30 p.m. ET: Kansas State at Iowa State (-1.5, 51.5)

Kansas State (8-3, ranked 24th) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 41-15 win over Cincinnati, easily covering as 7.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Iowa State (9-2, ranked 18th) has won two straight and just edged Utah 31-28 but failed to cover as 6.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Iowa State listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Cyclones, who have the better ranking and are laying short chalk at home. However, despite receiving 65% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Iowa State fall from -3 to -1.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Kansas State, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular play. Kansas State is only receiving 35% of spread bets but 44% of spread dollars at DraftKings, a sharp contrarian bet split in a heavily bet primetime game on FOX. Kansas State has value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. The Wildcats are also a “short road dog” system match. Short road dogs getting 4-points or less are roughly 54% ATS over the past decade. With roughly 3-points awarded for home field advantage, this means the game would be around a pick’em on a neutral site. We’ve also seen some smart money hit the under, dropping the total from 52.5 to 51.5. The under is receiving 33% of bets but 44% of dollars at DraftKings and 50% of bets but 62% of dollars at Circa, which both qualify as sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet splits. The forecast calls for low 20s with cloudy skies and 7-10 MPH winds.

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR