Today we have a loaded Saturday Week 9 slate of College Football action with roughly 50-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
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3:30 p.m. ET: BYU at UCF (-2.5, 53.5)
BYU (7-0, ranked 11th) is undefeated and just outlasted Oklahoma State 38-35 but failed to cover as 7.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, UCF (3-4) has dropped four straight games and just came up short against Iowa State 38-35 but managed to cover as 13.5-point road dogs. This line opened with BYU listed as a 2-point road favorite. The public sees an easy blowout win and cover with BYU, who has the far better record and ranking. However, despite 82% of spread bets backing BYU we’ve seen this completely flip in favor of UCF, driving the Knights from a 2-point home dog to a 2.5-point home favorite. Essentially, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement on UCF. The Knights are one of the top contrarian plays of the day as they are only receiving 18% of spread bets in a heavily bet late afternoon nationally televised matchup on ESPN. UCF is also receiving 45% of spread dollars, indicating a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. UCF has fishy value as an unranked home favorite against a ranked opponent, as well as a buy-low favorite on a four-game losing streak against a sell-high undefeated underdog. Those looking to follow the sharp UCF move but wary of laying points in what might be a close game around a key number could instead target the Knights on the moneyline at -140. UCF is only receiving 13% of moneyline bets but 47% of moneyline dollars, a sharp bet discrepancy.
4 p.m. ET: Oregon State at California (-10.5, 49.5)
Oregon State (4-3) has lost two straight games and just fell to UNLV 33-25, failing to cover as 6.5-point home dogs. Conversely, California (3-4) has dropped four straight games and just came up short against against NC State 24-23, losing outright as 9.5-point home favorites. This line opened with California listed as a 9.5-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Why is California so heavily favored if they’re mired in a losing streak and have a losing record against a team with a winning record? The public says take the points all day with Oregon State. However, despite 63% of spread bets taking Oregon State we’ve actually seen this line move further to toward California -9.5 to -10.5. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on California, as the line is moving further in their direction despite being the unpopular play. California is only receiving 37% of spread bets but 68% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split.
7:30 p.m. ET: Michigan State at Michigan (-3.5, 39)
Michigan State (4-3) just snapped a three-game losing skid with a 32-20 upset victory over Iowa, winning outright as 6.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Michigan (4-3) has dropped two straight games and just fell to Illinois 21-7, losing outright as 5.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Michigan listed as a 5.5-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even 50/50 spread bet split we’ve seen Michigan fall from -5.5 to -3.5. It has fallen further from +4 to +3.5 on gameday. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the number. So, based on this line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers are taking Michigan State plus the points. Michigan State is only receiving 50% of spread bets but 72% of spread dollars, a sharp “lower bets, higher dollars” split and further evidence of pro money backing the road dog. Michigan State has value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. The Spartans also have correlative betting value as a dog in a super low total game (39), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover.
